Stock return predictability in the spanish stock market : a conventional and an alternative methodology

We carry out an empirical analysis on the Spanish Stock Market from July 2003 to June 2015, with an aim to examine whether the monthly returns can be predicted. We test the return predictability of the Spanish Stock Market through two different methodologies. First, we use a linear estimator, the FGLS and, secondly, we use a non-parametric approach, the RE-EM tree. The latter is tested in-sample and out-of-sample. We use a total of nine predictors, two of which are non-traditional variables: gold and oil returns. We conclude that macroeconomic variables are more relevant forecasting monthly returns than the business performance (ratios) predictors. We also find evidence in favour of in-sample return predictability. Although we find a 56.7% of success forecasting the sign of the real returns in the out-of-sample period through the RE-EM tree, it may not be enough to outperform the market once all the transaction costs are discounted. We also find that the return predictability is heterogeneous among different sectors

Carboplatin and Etoposide With or Without Palifosfamide in Untreated Extensive-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer: A Multicenter, Adaptive, Randomized Phase III Study (MATISSE)

Purpose To evaluate the efficacy of the addition of palifosfamide to carboplatin and etoposide in extensive stage (ES) small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). Patients and Methods MATISSE was a randomized, open-label, adaptive phase III study. Previously untreated patients with ES SCLC were randomly assigned in a 1:1 fashion to receive carboplatin at area under the serum concentration-time curve 5 on day 1 plus etoposide 100 mg/m2 per day on days 1 to 3 every 21 days (CE) or carboplatin at area under the serum concentration-time curve 4 on day 1 plus etoposide 100 mg/m2 per day plus palifosfamide 130 mg/m2 per day on days 1 to 3 every 21 days (PaCE). The primary end point was overall survival. Results In all, 188 patients were enrolled; 94 patients received CE and 94 patients received PaCE. The median age on both arms was 61 years. Six cycles of chemotherapy were completed on both arms of the study by approximately 50% of the patients. Serious adverse events were documented and did not differ significantly between patients receiving PaCE and those receiving CE. Median overall survival was similar between both arms with 10.03 months on PaCE and 10.37 months on CE (P = .096). Conclusion The addition of palifosfamide to CE failed to improve survival in ES SCLC