Modeling framework and components from Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients

The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960–2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, <i>Colias eriphyle</i>, along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments

Appendix A. Additional database methods.

Additional database methods

Appendix C. Results of maximum-likelihood models controlling for spatial and phylogenetic autocorrelation.

Results of maximum-likelihood models controlling for spatial and phylogenetic autocorrelation

Appendix D. Database literature sources.

Database literature sources

Appendix B. Additional methods for spatial and phylogenetic analysis.

Additional methods for spatial and phylogenetic analysis

SceloporusThermalData

Thermal data for lizards from the Sceloporus undulatus species complex. Data collection was led by Joseph Ehrenberger in the laboratory at Indiana State University as described in the manuscript. Columns are as follows: state corresponding to collection site, ID for data collection, sex (M: male, F: female, J:juvenile of unknown sex), snout vent length (mm), total length (mm), critical thermal maximum (C), critical thermal minima (C), morning preferred body temperature (C), and afternoon preferred body temperature (C)

Realistic distribution

R script for calculating and plotting the proportion of viviparity at globe

Make figures

R script for ploting developmental developmental time, developmental viability and embryonic energy consumption

SRA_markdown

R markdown file for spatial regression analysis

Appendix A. Supporting tables including lower development temperature and development times, and supporting figures depicting degree days, available generations, model predictions, and model performance.

Supporting tables including lower development temperature and development times, and supporting figures depicting degree days, available generations, model predictions, and model performance