Impact of Foreign Exchange Administration Rule on the Nexus between Country-Specific FDI and Malaysian Currency

In the aftermath of the US Presidential election on 8 November 2016, the Malaysian currency Ringgit (MYR) had witnessed unprecedented volatility in its value relative to the USD. As a policy response, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) implemented a Supplemental Foreign Exchange Administration (SFEA) Rule in December 2016. Exporters are required to convert 75 per cent of foreign currency proceeds from the exports of goods into MYR with a licensed onshore bank. This study evaluates the impact of the new SFEA Rule on the relationship between country-specific FDI and MYR. Based on the data of five major inward FDI countries from 2015 to 2018, our results show: Firstly, Japanese FDI strengthens MYR in post-SFEA Rule; Secondly, FDI from Singapore is found to exert downward pressure on MYR; Thirdly, FDI from China, the Netherlands and the US are insignificant in influencing the MYR; Finally, inward FDI from different countries responds differently to the Rule. Notably, the results obtained are robust to different measures of the exchange rate. On policy suggestion, the Foreign Exchange Rule should also target non-export oriented inward FDIs to achieve the policy target. The result also highlights the importance of export-oriented FDIs for the long-run benefit of the Malaysian economy

INFORMATION FLOW BETWEEN THE US DOLLAR-RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATES

This study investigates the information flow between non-deliverable forward (NDF), spot, and forward US dollar–rupiah exchange rates during the post-Quantitative Easing (QE) period. Our results show a unidirectional information flow from NDF to the spot and forward rates in the post-QE period. We also find that the Indonesian government securities (IGS) played a vital role during the QE period, while international reserves preceded the US dollar–rupiah spot, forward, and NDF exchange rates post-QE. Hence, international reserves became an important policy variable in managing the currency value. Our finding redefines the role of IGS as a policy tool. As a policy suggestion, the Bank Indonesia should maintain a sufficient amount of foreign reserves to mitigate foreign exchange risks of the rupiah.This study investigates the information flow between non-deliverable forward (NDF), spot, and forward US dollar–rupiah exchange rates during the post-Quantitative Easing (QE) period. Our results show a unidirectional information flow from NDF to the spot and forward rates in the post-QE period. We also find that the Indonesian government securities (IGS) played a vital role during the QE period, while international reserves preceded the US dollar–rupiah spot, forward, and NDF exchange rates post-QE. Hence, international reserves became an important policy variable in managing the currency value. Our finding redefines the role of IGS as a policy tool. As a policy suggestion, the Bank Indonesia should maintain a sufficient amount of foreign reserves to mitigate foreign exchange risks of the rupiah

The Interaction Effect of Heuristic Representation on Initial Public Offering Anomaly: Evidence from Flipping Activity

This study examines the impact of the heuristic representation on IPO anomaly in the context of an emerging market from January 2006 to December 2016. Models consist of multiple regression has been evaluated. Our results show: firstly, the distribution of initial return, oversubscription ratio, firm age, offer period, firm size, heuristic representation, and flipping activity are positively skewed; Secondly, the oversubscription ratio has a positive relationship with flipping activity. This is because higher demand makes investors flip more to liquidate the IPO on the first trading day. In contrast, firm size has a negative relationship with flipping activity. A larger IPO firm is more stable in terms of performance, and less risky in terms of business operation; Thirdly, heuristic representation influences the relationship between oversubscription ratio and flipping activity; Lastly, this study dispels the notion that investors are active in subsequent trading but not necessarily obtain a profit from the liquidation. This study extends earlier work by examining the interaction effect of heuristic representation to the flipping activity in an emerging market

Asset Allocation and Performance of Malaysian Civil Service Pension Fund

Managing pension assets for defined benefit plans is a dynamic optimisation process between the strategic allocation and the future liabilities obligations. A pension fund's optimal asset and liability structure will eventually determine the pension fund's performance. This study examines the Civil Service Pension Fund, or Malaysia Incorporated Retirement Fund (KWAP). Using the data from 2007 to 2018, our results show: First, KWAP has invested in five main asset classes. Its asset allocation strategy shows an increased risk tolerance with greater weight in equities. Second, real estate is the most performing asset class that contributes the highest ROI, followed by equities. Third, the investment performance of KWAP has deteriorated since 2007 as measured by Sharpe Ratio and M-squared. Fourth, the KWAP is still conservative based on the efficient frontier. It invests mainly in domestic fixed income and local equities. As a policy implication, the KWAP should diversify into an international portfolio as recommended by Capital Market Line

Does Misclassification of Equity Funds Exist? Evidence from Malaysia

Applying the style analysis developed by Sharpe (1988, 1992), this paper investigates the classification of equity funds in Malaysia. A methodology for creating purified mutual fund style indexes is used to verify existing classifications. The paper concludes that an improper classification of funds would not only cause mismatch between investors objectives and funds’ profile, it also affects the process of income smoothing in the lifecycle of investors. Besides estimating the possible economic impact due to misclassification, this study highlights the importance of a proper classification system of equity funds in Malaysian context and its implication towards investor’s protection

IS THE KWAP DEFINED BENEFIT PENSION FUND SUSTAINABLE IN THE LONG RUN?

The Retirement Fund Incorporated (KWAP) manages the civil servant pension fund. It is a statutory body governed by the Ministry of Finance to manage Malaysia’s civil employees’ pension scheme. In order to examine the fund’s long-term sustainability, this study simulates 560 scenarios to examine the required rate of return needed to fund this defined benefit pension based on four parameters, namely contribution rate, years of service, retirement age and life expectancy. Our results show: First, the minimum years of service for pension eligibility should be increased to 20 years. Second, a contribution rate of at least 13 percent per worker to KWAP is needed. Third, there are no significant changes in the required rate of return even though the retirement age is extended from 55 to 60. Fourth, this study shows that the contribution period is more crucial than the post-retirement period for the sustainability of the pension fund. As a policy suggestion, there is a need for the authority to set a minimum funding ratio for the KWAP pension fund to ensure its long-term sustainability

Trade openness and economic growth: empirical evidence from India

The main objective of this study is to develop first time trade openness index and use this index to examine the link between trade openness and economic growth in case of India. This study employs a new endogenous growth model for theoretical support, auto-regressive distributive lag model and rolling window regression method in order to determine long run and short run association between trade openness and economic growth. Further granger causality test is used to determine the long run and short run causal direction. The results reveal that human capital and physical capital are positively related to economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, trade openness index negatively impacts on economic growth in the long run. The new evidence is provided by the rolling window regression results i.e. the impact of trade openness index on economic growth is not stable throughout the sample. In the short run trade openness index is positively related to economic growth. The result of granger causality test confirms the validity of trade openness-led growth and human capital-led growth hypothesis in the short run and long run

Does Financial and Trade liberalization Drive Private Investment in Pakistan?

There is evidence in economic growth literature that private investment enhances economic growth of developing countries. Recent economic growth policies in Pakistan has concentrated more on encouraging private sector investment through the liberalization of the financial and trade sectors. However, previous studies have ignored the impact of trade and financial liberalization on private investment. This study investigates the short- and long-run impact of financial and trade liberalization on private investment in Pakistan. Using the data from 1971–2014 on the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration, our result suggests that: First, per capita real private income, public investment, and financial liberalization are positively related to private investment in the long run; Second, real interest rate and trade openness are negatively related to private investment in the long run; and finally, the short-run results indicate that capital account liberalization and financial openness are positively associated with private savings