An Analysis of U.S. Postwar Consumption and Saving: Part II -- Empirical Results

A new empirical analysis of aggregate United States consumption and saving for the period 1947-80 is presented. The model is based on the theory of exact aggregation. It recognizes explicitly that households with different characteristics may be heterogeneous in their behavior and that aggregate behavior may depend on the changing composition of households by characteristics and therefore may not be adequately portrayed by a representative consumer, but otherwise it imposes minimal assumptions on household behavior. The model integrates longitudinal and cross-sectional microeconomic data on household characteristics with the traditional aggregate time-series data. Various hypotheses on consumption, such as age independence, proportionality to wealth, and price independence, are tested , and rejected. Strong evidence of relative price effects and a systematic variation of aggregate consumption with changing age distribution of wealth in the economy is found. Especially important is the substantial estimated difference in the shares of wealth consumed between households headed by persons born prior to and those born after 1939. One important lesson from this study is that modeling the aggregate U.S. economy as a representative consumer may give rise to misleading results.

Post-War Economic Growth in the Group-of-Five Countries: A New Analysis

An inter-country aggregate production function is estimated using annual data for the post-war period drawn from the Group-of-Five (G-5) countries: France, West Germany, Japan, United Kingdom and United states. It is assumed that all countries have the same underlying production function, not in terms of the measured outputs and inputs, but in terms of efficiency equivalent units of outputs and inputs. The measured quantities of outputs and inputs of each country may be converted into efficiency-equivalent quantities of outputs and inputs by the multiplication of country and commodity-specific and time-varying augmentation factors. These augmentation factors are estimated simultaneously with the parameters of the aggregate production function. Within this framework, the traditional assumptions for the measurement of productivity--constant returns to scale, neutrality of technical progress and profit maximization--are tested and all are rejected. Additional hypotheses about the nature of technical progress are also tested. It is found that technical progress may be represented as purely capital augmenting. In particular, the rate of augmentation is estimated at between 14 and 16 percent per annum for France, West Germany and Japan, and between 8 and 10 percent per annum for the U.K. and the U.S. for the period under study. It is also found that technical progress is capital-saving rather than labor-saving and is therefore unlikely to be a cause of structural unemployment. Using the estimated production function parameters, a growth-accounting exercise is carried out and the results are compared with those obtained from the conventional approach. Technical progress is found to be the most important source of growth, accounting for more than 50 percent, followed by the growth of capital input. Together they account for more than 75 percent of the growth of real output in the Group-of-Five (G-5) countries in the period under study. An international and intertemporal comparison of the productive efficiencies is also undertaken. It is found that the United States had the highest level of overall productive efficiency for the whole period under study. However, the productive efficiencies of France, West Germany and Japan rose rapidly from less than 40 percent of the U.S. level in 1949 to two-thirds of the U.S. level in 1985. There is thus some evidence of convergence.

An Analysis of Postwar U.S. Consumption and Saving: Part I -- The Model and Aggregation

A new empirical analysis of aggregate United States consumption and saving for the period 1947-80 is presented. The model is based on the theory of exact aggregation. It recognizes explicitly that households with different characteristics may be heterogeneous in their behavior and that aggregate behavior may depend on the changing composition of households by characteristics and therefore may not be adequately portrayed by a representative consumer, but otherwise it imposes minimal assumptions on household behavior. The model integrates longitudinal and cross-sectional microeconomic data on household characteristics with the traditional aggregate time-series data. Various hypotheses on consumption, such as age independence, proportionality to wealth, and price independence, are tested and rejected. Strong evidence of relative price effects and a systematic variation of aggregate consumption with changing age distribution of wealth in the economy is found. Especially important is the substantial estimated difference in the shares of wealth consumed between households headed by persons born prior to and those born after 1939. One important lesson from this study is that modeling the aggregate U. S. economy as a representative consumer may give rise to misleading results.

The Pacific Basin in World Trade: Part III, An Analysis of Changing Trade Patterns, 1955-1975

This is the third of a sequence of papers on international flows of trade among fifteen Pacific Basin (PB) countries and between them and eleven regions in the Rest of the World (ROW). In Part I of the sequence (Hickman, Kuroda and Lau, 1977a) we presented and documented annual data on bilateral flows of total exports valued f.o.b. in current dollars among the twenty-six countries and regions for the years 1948 through1975. The primary data source is the Direction of Trade computer tape of the International Monetary Fund, but these data were supplemented from other sources, especially as regards the international trade of the socialist countries. The second report (1977b) extended the data base to include unit value export price indexes and the corresponding constant dollar trade flow matrices for the period 1955-1975. In this third report we analyze the changing pattern of PB trade over the same period, using as tools export growth decomposition indexes, trend analysis, and regression analysis of the price elasticity of import market shares. The present paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we describe the trends in the export performance of the PB countries and ROW regions, as measured by the cumulative percentage change in each country's share of world exports between 1955 and 1975 and for selected sub periods. In Section 3 and Appendices B and C these export share changes are decomposed into three sources: changes in the degree of penetration of the various import markets, changes in the size of the import markets themselves, and an interaction effect. The decomposition indexes are shown in Section 4 to be dominated by the market penetration or competitiveness effect, so that a country gains or loses in world trade according to whether or not it can increase its shares of the markets in which it sells rather than as a passive result of changes in the size of the markets themselves. This leads to a descriptive analysis in Section 5 of the secular growth rates of the market shares of each country or region in the import markets of the twenty-five remaining countries and regions. Finally, we conclude the paper in Section 6 with art exploratory regression analysis of the responsiveness of the market shares to changes in the relative prices of the various exporting countries competing in each import market, leading to the general conclusion that relative prices do matter and presenting estimates of share or substitution elasticities in the various import markets.

The Pacific Basin in World Trade: Part II, Constant-Price Trade Matrices, 1955-1975

This is the second of a sequence of papers on international flows of merchandise trade among fifteen Pacific Basin countries and between them and eleven regions in the Rest of the World. In the first paper in this sequence (Hickman, Kuroda and Lau (1977)) we presented annual data on bilateral flows of exports in current prices among the twenty-six countries and regions for the years 1948 through 1975. The basic purpose of this second report is to present and document data on annual export price indexes of the twenty-six countries and regions and annual bilateral flows of exports in constant U.S. dollar prices among the twenty-six countries and regions in matrix form from 1955 through 1975. A third report will analyze the changing pattern of Pacific Basin trade over the same period. The present report is organized as follows: In Section 2 we present the data sources for the export price indexes. Using these export price indexes, the current price trade matrices derived in the first report(Hickman, Kuroda and Lau (1977)) are deflated to obtain the constant price trade matrices. In Section 3 we examine whether the concept of a Pacific Basin regional economy may still be justified when viewed in a constant price context and describe the postwar trends in its share of world trade and in its internal trading relationships on a constant price basis. In Section 4 we present terms of trade indexes for each country and region from 1955 through 1975 and discuss some of their implications.

The Pacific Basin in World Trade: Part I, Current Price Trade Matrices, 1948-1975

This is the first of a sequence of papers on international flows of merchandise trade among fifteen Pacific Basin countries and between them and eleven regions in the Rest of the World. The basic purpose of this report is to present and document annual data on bilateral flows of exports in current prices among the 26 countries and regions in matrix form for the years 1948 through 1975. A second report will provide export price deflators and trade matrices in constant prices for 1955-1975, and a third will analyze the changing pattern of Pacific Basin trade over the same period. The present report is organized as follows. In Section 2 we justify the concept of a Pacific Basin regional economy and describe the postwar trends in its share of world trade and in its internal trading relationships. Section 3 contains a detailed description of the construction of the annual trade matrices. The matrices themselves are presented in Appendix D. Appendix A lists the countries in each regional grouping, and Appendices B and C document adjustments to the basic International Monetary Fund Directions of Trade (DOT) data for the trade of socialist countries and that of Malaysia and Singapore.

The determinants of farm investment and residential construction in post-reform China

The objective of this paper is to clarify, on the basis of detailed farm level data derived from recent surveys,the importance of factors related to tenure security, farm size and credit availability in constraining farmers'agricultural investment. In particular, a direct measure of farmers'perceptions regarding tenure security will be utilized, as well as information on transactions in the credit market. The next section provides a description of the study areas. It is followed by a discussion of factors affecting farm investment and a description of investment patterns in the study areas. A formal model of farmers'consumption and investment decisions, and an econometric analysis are then presented and results are interpreted. The last section summarizes the paper.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Agricultural Knowledge&Information Systems

Credit's effect on productivity in Chinese agriculture : a microeconomic model of disequilibrium

Many government programs want to provide more credit to the farm sector to increase agricultural productivity. If the marginal effect on productivity is small, those resources might be put to better use elsewhere. The authors conducted an econometric analysis of the effect of credit on output supply which recognizies that credit markets are not necessarily at equilibrium - so that credit rationing and nonborrowing are both possible. Only about 37 percent of the farmers in the study area were constrained by inadequate formal credit. Informal credit sources provided funds for specific non-agricultural activities that were not fungible. The results indicate that one additional yuan of liquidity yielded 0.235 yuan of additional gross value of output. These results suggest that for the area of China covered in the study, a good part of the short-term credit may actually be used for consumption and investment. Two conclusions are suggested for evaluating the probable effect of expanding agricultural credit. First, not all farmers, and sometimes only a minority, are constrained in their farming operations by inadequate credit. And second, greater supplies of formal credit will be diverted in part to consumption, so the likely effect on output will be smaller than what one might expect if all funds are assumed to be used productively.Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies