Approaches for multi-step density forecasts with application to aggregated wind power

The generation of multi-step density forecasts for non-Gaussian data mostly relies on Monte Carlo simulations which are computationally intensive. Using aggregated wind power in Ireland, we study two approaches of multi-step density forecasts which can be obtained from simple iterations so that intensive computations are avoided. In the first approach, we apply a logistic transformation to normalize the data approximately and describe the transformed data using ARIMA--GARCH models so that multi-step forecasts can be iterated easily. In the second approach, we describe the forecast densities by truncated normal distributions which are governed by two parameters, namely, the conditional mean and conditional variance. We apply exponential smoothing methods to forecast the two parameters simultaneously. Since the underlying model of exponential smoothing is Gaussian, we are able to obtain multi-step forecasts of the parameters by simple iterations and thus generate forecast densities as truncated normal distributions. We generate forecasts for wind power from 15 minutes to 24 hours ahead. Results show that the first approach generates superior forecasts and slightly outperforms the second approach under various proper scores. Nevertheless, the second approach is computationally more efficient and gives more robust results under different lengths of training data. It also provides an attractive alternative approach since one is allowed to choose a particular parametric density for the forecasts, and is valuable when there are no obvious transformations to normalize the data.Comment: Corrected version includes updated equation (18). Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS320 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Concert recording 2017-09-29

[Track 1]. Qui sedes as dexteram Parris from Gloria / Antonio Vivaldi -- [Track 2]. Pompe vane di mortel!...dove sei from Rodelinda [Track 3]. Di speranza un bel raggio...Venti turbini from Rinaldo / George Frederic Handel -- [Track 4]. An Chloe [Track 5]. Als luise die briefe [Track 6]. Das Veilchen / Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart -- [Track 7]. Mandoline, op. 58, no. 1 [Track 8]. Clair de lune, op. 46, no. 2 / Gabriel Fauré -- [Track 9]. Sympathy [Track 10]. Fantasy in purple / Florence Price -- [Track 11]. Oh, wasn\u27t dat a wide ribber / Harry T. Burleigh -- [Track 12]. There\u27s a man goin\u27 round / Dave Ragland -- [Track 13]. I got a robe / Colin Lett -- [Track 14]. Encor

CONCORDE Meteorological Analysis (CMA) - Data Guide

CONCORDE is the CONsortium for oil spill exposure pathways in COastal River-Dominated Ecosystems (CONCORDE), and is an interdisciplinary research program funded by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI) to conduct scientific studies of the impacts of oil, dispersed oil and dispersant on the Gulf’s ecosystem (Greer et al. 2018). A CONCORDE goal is to implement a synthesis model containing circulation and biogeochemistry components of the Northern Gulf of Mexico shelf system which can ultimately aid in prediction of oil spill transport and impacts. The CONCORDE Meteorological Analysis (CMA) is an hourly gridded NetCDF dataset which provides atmospheric forcing for the synthesis model. CMA includes a variety of parameters from multiple sources. The Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA; De Pondeca et al. 2011) provides the surface momentum and the thermodynamic atmospheric data. The radiation parameters and total cloud cover percentage are from the North American Mesoscale (NAM) Forecast System fields. The hourly precipitation is extracted from the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) Level-III. Gridded sea surface temperature fields (SST) are computed daily using a 10-day running mean of the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) SST product. The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment flux (COARE) algorithm calculates sensible heat flux and surface momentum stresses (Fairall et al. 2003). CMA’s spatial domain’s lowest west grid point is at 90.13°W, 29°N, and the highest east grid point is at 87.05°W, 30.94°N. The grid spacing is 0.01 degree, and the grid dimension is 309 by 195

Visual Data Analysis for Satellites

The Visual Data Analysis Package is a collection of programs and scripts that facilitate visual analysis of data available from NASA and NOAA satellites, as well as dropsonde, buoy, and conventional in-situ observations. The package features utilities for data extraction, data quality control, statistical analysis, and data visualization. The Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) satellite data extraction routines from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory were customized for specific spatial coverage and file input/output. Statistical analysis includes the calculation of the relative error, the absolute error, and the root mean square error. Other capabilities include curve fitting through the data points to fill in missing data points between satellite passes or where clouds obscure satellite data. For data visualization, the software provides customizable Generic Mapping Tool (GMT) scripts to generate difference maps, scatter plots, line plots, vector plots, histograms, timeseries, and color fill images

Teaching communication behaviour through dance and movement to children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in Sarawak / Teo Jing Xin...[et al.]

This paper highlights the struggles of parents in Sarawak that have children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD), and introduces the authors’ proposed intervention programme for this population. With the belief that parental buy-in to an intervention would result in a higher level of follow-through and therefore improvement to the benefit of their children, the Fun, Inclusive, and Tolerant (FIT) dance and movement based behavioural intervention was designed and developed for Sarawakian children on the spectrum, specifically with the objective to acknowledge and address parental cultural narratives, desires, and expectations; while teaching appropriate behaviours to their children. The focus of this paper is two-fold. Firstly, to demonstrate how dances in this programme were created, by explaining the formulation of an individual dance which was developed for a child with an expressive speech delay; and secondly, to present parental feedback regarding the programme. Concluding remarks touch upon the authors’ future directions in this research

Emotional Competence as a Positive Youth Development Construct: A Conceptual Review

The concept of emotional competence as a positive youth development construct is reviewed in this paper. Differences between emotional intelligence and emotional competence are discussed and an operational definition is adopted. Assessment methods of emotional competence with an emphasis on its quantitative nature are introduced. In the discussion of theories of emotional competence, the functionalist and developmental perspectives and the relationships with positive youth development are highlighted. Possible antecedents, especially the influence of early child-caregiver, and expected outcomes of emotional competence are examined. Practical ways to promote emotional competence among adolescents, particularly the role of parents and teachers, and the future direction of research are also discussed

A Structural Equation Model Examining the Cultural Relevance of Physical Self-Concept and Self-Esteem in Chinese Children

Objectives: The purposes of this study were to investigate: (1) whether three subscale scores (i.e.,body fat, appearance, and strength) and the global physical self-concept and global self-concept scores of the Physical Self-Description Questionnaire (PSDQ) are applicable to Chinese children; (2) whether there is a gender difference in these relationships; and (3) whether global physical self-concept acts as a mediator of global self-concept. Method: 320 Chinese children aged 7-12 years were recruited. The PSDQ was used to assess two global dimensions (global physical self-concept and global self-concept) and three specific dimensions (body fat, appearance, and strength) of self-worth. The children’s version of the silhouette matching task (SMT) was adopted from Marsh and Roche (1996) to measure children’s body perception. Results: The factor structure of the modified PSDQ model was applicable in young Chinese children, regardless of their gender. Results of structural equation model (SEM) indicated that the model was acceptable. The structural paths of the model and the mediating effect of global physical self-concept on global self-concept were discussed. Conclusion: The present study indicates that the physical self is an increasingly important correlate of self-esteem. It is particularly important relative to perceived self-presentation and social acceptance. Therefore, it is important to consider the impact of the physical self-concept on global self-concept from both cultural and worldwide perspectives

Evaluation of an Internet–Short Message Service–Based Intervention for Promoting Physical Activity in Hong Kong Chinese Adolescent School Children: A Pilot Study

Evaluation of acceptability and preliminary efficacy of an Internet and short message service (SMS) intervention for promoting physical activity (PA) in Hong Kong Chinese school children. An 8-week quasi-experimental study non-randomly assigned 78 school children (mean age=12.8 years) to (a) an intervention group that received a stage-matched, Internet PA program two times a week and tailored SMS messages daily; or (b) a no-treatment control. Data were collected from September 2008 until June 2009. Acceptability measures included exposure rate and participant\u27s satisfaction. Efficacy measures were changes in stage of motivational readiness (SMR) and self-reported PA level. Intervention participants demonstrated significant pre-post increments in SMR (Z=−2.558, p=0.011) and self-reported PA level [F(1, 76)=4.50, p=0.04]. There was a non-significant trend between groups in both SMR (p=0.24) and PA (p=0.13). Despite the similar ratings of satisfaction between Internet (M=3.12±0.74) and SMS (M=3.12±0.84), participants displayed distinct patterns of exposure with 66% exhibiting a weekly login rate of 0.5 times/person and an average of 3.75 minutes/visit/person. In contrast, 79% of participants read an average of 1.3 SMS/person/week and 47% voluntarily replied to 3.8 SMS/person. These findings demonstrate the acceptability and preliminary efficacy of an Internet-SMS-based intervention for promoting PA in Hong Kong school children. The divergent exposure rates between the Internet and SMS may be a unique pattern for adolescents in early SMR. Future research should be cognizant of the importance of SMR since it may influence utilization and/or adherence

Acupuncture Transmitted Infections

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