Effects of Contact Network Models on Stochastic Epidemic Simulations

The importance of modeling the spread of epidemics through a population has led to the development of mathematical models for infectious disease propagation. A number of empirical studies have collected and analyzed data on contacts between individuals using a variety of sensors. Typically one uses such data to fit a probabilistic model of network contacts over which a disease may propagate. In this paper, we investigate the effects of different contact network models with varying levels of complexity on the outcomes of simulated epidemics using a stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. We evaluate these network models on six datasets of contacts between people in a variety of settings. Our results demonstrate that the choice of network model can have a significant effect on how closely the outcomes of an epidemic simulation on a simulated network match the outcomes on the actual network constructed from the sensor data. In particular, preserving degrees of nodes appears to be much more important than preserving cluster structure for accurate epidemic simulations.Comment: To appear at International Conference on Social Informatics (SocInfo) 201

Rays, intrusive growth, and storied cambium in the inflorescence stems of Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynh

Arabidopsis thaliana is a model plant used in analysis of different aspects of plant growth and development. Under suitable conditions, secondary growth takes place in the hypocotyl of Arabidopsis plants, a finding which helps in understanding many aspects of xylogenesis. However, not all developmental processes of secondary tissue can be studied here, as no secondary rays and intrusive growth have been detected in hypocotyl. However, results presented here concerning the secondary growth in inflorescence stems of Arabidopsis shows that both secondary rays and intrusive growth of cambial cells can be detected, and that, in the interfascicular regions, a storied cambium can be developed

The Void Galaxy Survey

The Void Galaxy Survey (VGS) is a multi-wavelength program to study $\sim$60 void galaxies. Each has been selected from the deepest interior regions of identified voids in the SDSS redshift survey on the basis of a unique geometric technique, with no a prior selection of intrinsic properties of the void galaxies. The project intends to study in detail the gas content, star formation history and stellar content, as well as kinematics and dynamics of void galaxies and their companions in a broad sample of void environments. It involves the HI imaging of the gas distribution in each of the VGS galaxies. Amongst its most tantalizing findings is the possible evidence for cold gas accretion in some of the most interesting objects, amongst which are a polar ring galaxy and a filamentary configuration of void galaxies. Here we shortly describe the scope of the VGS and the results of the full analysis of the pilot sample of 15 void galaxies.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures. This is an extended version of a paper to appear in "Environment and the Formation of Galaxies: 30 years later", Proceedings of Symposium 2 of JENAM 2010, eds. I. Ferreras, A. Pasquali, ASSP, Springer. Version with highres figures at http://www.astro.rug.nl/~weygaert/vgs_jenam_weygaert.col.pd

Feasibility of identifying families for genetic studies of birth defects using the National Health Interview Survey

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to determine whether the National Health Interview Survey is a useful source to identify informative families for genetic studies of birth defects. METHODS: The 1994/1995 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) was used to identify households where individuals with two or more birth defects reside. Four groups of households were identified: 1) single non-familial (one individual with one birth defect); 2) single familial (more than one individual with one birth defect); 3) multiple non-familial (one individual with more than one birth defect), and 4) multiple familial (more than one individual with more than one birth defect). The March 2000 U.S. Census on households was used to estimate the total number of households in which there are individuals with birth defects. RESULTS: Of a total of 28,094 households and surveyed about birth defects and impairments, 1,083 single non-familial, 55 multiple non-familial, 54 single familial, and 8 multiple familial households were identified. Based on the 2000 U.S. census, it is estimated that there are 4,472,385 households where at least one person has one birth defect in the United States and in 234,846 of them there are at least two affected individuals. Western states had the highest prevalence rates. CONCLUSIONS: Population-based methods, such as the NHIS, are modestly useful to identify the number and the regions where candidate families for genetic studies of birth defects reside. Clinic based studies and birth defects surveillance systems that collect family history offer better probability of ascertainment

Total Laparoscopic Restorative Proctocolectomy: Are There Advantages Compared with the Open and Hand-Assisted Approaches?

PURPOSE: A randomized, controlled trial comparing hand-assisted laparoscopic restorative proctocolectomy with open surgery did not show an advantage for the laparoscopic approach. The trial was criticized because hand-assisted laparoscopic restorative proctocolectomy was not considered a true laparoscopic proctocolectomy. The objective of the present study was to assess whether total laparoscopic restorative proctocolectomy has advantages over hand-assisted laparoscopic restorative proctocolectomy with respect to early recovery. METHODS: Thirty-five patients underwent total laparoscopic restorative proctocolectomy and were compared to 60 patients from a previously conducted randomized, controlled trial comparing hand-assisted laparoscopic restorative proctocolectomy and open restorative proctocolectomy. End points included operating time, conversion rate, reoperation rate, hospital stay, morbidity, quality of life, and costs. The Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 and the Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index were used to evaluate general and bowel-related quality of life. RESULTS: Groups were comparable for patient characteristics, such as sex, body mass index, preoperative disease duration, and age. There were neither conversions nor intraoperative complications. Median operating time was longer in the total laparoscopic compared with the hand-assisted laparoscopic group (298 vs. 214 minutes; P < 0.001). Morbidity and reoperation rates in the total laparoscopic, hand-assisted laparoscopic, and open groups were comparable (29 vs. 20 vs. 23 percent and 17 vs.10 vs. 13 percent, respectively). Median hospital-stay was 9 days in the total laparoscopic group compared with 10 days in the hand-assisted laparoscopic group and 11 days in the open group (P = not significant). There were no differences in quality of life and total costs. CONCLUSIONS: There were no significant short-term benefits for total laparoscopic compared with hand-assisted laparoscopic restorative proctocolectomy with respect to early morbidity, operating time, quality of life, costs, and hospital sta

Implications of the 125 GeV Higgs boson for scalar dark matter and for the CMSSM phenomenology

We study phenomenological implications of the ATLAS and CMS hint of a $125\pm 1$ GeV Higgs boson for the singlet, and singlet plus doublet non-supersymmetric dark matter models, and for the phenomenology of the CMSSM. We show that in scalar dark matter models the vacuum stability bound on Higgs boson mass is lower than in the standard model and the 125 GeV Higgs boson is consistent with the models being valid up the GUT or Planck scale. We perform a detailed study of the full CMSSM parameter space keeping the Higgs boson mass fixed to $125\pm 1$ GeV, and study in detail the freeze-out processes that imply the observed amount of dark matter. After imposing all phenomenological constraints except for the muon $(g-2)_\mu,$ we show that the CMSSM parameter space is divided into well separated regions with distinctive but in general heavy sparticle mass spectra. Imposing the $(g-2)_\mu$ constraint introduces severe tension between the high SUSY scale and the experimental measurements -- only the slepton co-annihilation region survives with potentially testable sparticle masses at the LHC. In the latter case the spin-independent DM-nucleon scattering cross section is predicted to be below detectable limit at the XENON100 but might be of measurable magnitude in the general case of light dark matter with large bino-higgsino mixing and unobservably large scalar masses.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures. v3: same as published versio

Spectral quantification of nonlinear behaviour of the nearshore seabed and correlations with potential forcings at Duck, N.C., U.S.A

Local bathymetric quasi-periodic patterns of oscillation are identified from monthly profile surveys taken at two shore-perpendicular transects at the USACE field research facility in Duck, North Carolina, USA, spanning 24.5 years and covering the swash and surf zones. The chosen transects are the two furthest (north and south) from the pier located at the study site. Research at Duck has traditionally focused on one or more of these transects as the effects of the pier are least at these locations. The patterns are identified using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Possible correlations with potential forcing mechanisms are discussed by 1) doing an SSA with same parameter settings to independently identify the quasi-periodic cycles embedded within three potentially linked sequences: monthly wave heights (MWH), monthly mean water levels (MWL) and the large scale atmospheric index known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and 2) comparing the patterns within MWH, MWL and NAO to the local bathymetric patterns. The results agree well with previous patterns identified using wavelets and confirm the highly nonstationary behaviour of beach levels at Duck; the discussion of potential correlations with hydrodynamic and atmospheric phenomena is a new contribution. The study is then extended to all measured bathymetric profiles, covering an area of 1100m (alongshore) by 440m (cross-shore), to 1) analyse linear correlations between the bathymetry and the potential forcings using multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (MEOF) and linear correlation analysis and 2) identify which collective quasi-periodic bathymetric patterns are correlated with those within MWH, MWL or NAO, based on a (nonlinear) multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA). (...continued in submitted paper)Comment: 50 pages, 3 tables, 8 figure

Star forming dwarf galaxies

Star forming dwarf galaxies (SFDGs) have a high gas content and low metallicities, reminiscent of the basic entities in hierarchical galaxy formation scenarios. In the young universe they probably also played a major role in the cosmic reionization. Their abundant presence in the local volume and their youthful character make them ideal objects for detailed studies of the initial stellar mass function (IMF), fundamental star formation processes and its feedback to the interstellar medium. Occasionally we witness SFDGs involved in extreme starbursts, giving rise to strongly elevated production of super star clusters and global superwinds, mechanisms yet to be explored in more detail. SFDGs is the initial state of all dwarf galaxies and the relation to the environment provides us with a key to how different types of dwarf galaxies are emerging. In this review we will put the emphasis on the exotic starburst phase, as it seems less important for present day galaxy evolution but perhaps fundamental in the initial phase of galaxy formation.Comment: To appear in JENAM Symposium "Dwarf Galaxies: Keys to Galaxy Formation and Evolution", P. Papaderos, G. Hensler, S. Recchi (eds.). Lisbon, September 2010, Springer Verlag, in pres

Variable dose interplay effects across radiosurgical apparatus in treating multiple brain metastases

PURPOSE: Normal brain tissue doses have been shown to be strongly apparatus dependent for multi-target stereotactic radiosurgery. In this study, we investigated whether inter-target dose interplay effects across contemporary radiosurgical treatment platforms are responsible for such an observation. METHODS: For the study, subsets ([Formula: see text] and 12) of a total of 12 targets were planned at six institutions. Treatment platforms included the (1) Gamma Knife Perfexion (PFX), (2) CyberKnife, (3) Novalis linear accelerator equipped with a 3.0-mm multi-leaf collimator (MLC), and the (4) Varian Truebeam flattening-filter-free (FFF) linear accelerator also equipped with a 2.5 mm MLC. Identical dose–volume constraints for the targets and critical structures were applied for each apparatus. All treatment plans were developed at individual centers, and the results were centrally analyzed. RESULTS: We found that dose–volume constraints were satisfied by each apparatus with some differences noted in certain structures such as the lens. The peripheral normal brain tissue doses were lowest for the PFX and highest for TrueBeam FFF and CyberKnife treatment plans. Comparing the volumes of normal brain receiving 12 Gy, TrueBeam FFF, Novalis, and CyberKnife were 180–290 % higher than PFX. The mean volume of normal brain-per target receiving 4-Gy increased by approximately 3.0 cc per target for TrueBeam, 2.7 cc per target for CyberKnife, 2.0 cc per target for Novalis, and 0.82 cc per target for PFX. The beam-on time was shortest with the TrueBeam FFF (e.g., 6–9 min at a machine output rate of 1,200 MU/min) and longest for the PFX (e.g., 50–150 mins at a machine output rate of 350 cGy/min). CONCLUSION: The volumes of normal brain receiving 4 and 12 Gy were higher, and increased more swiftly per target, for Linac-based SRS platforms than for PFX. Treatment times were shortest with TrueBeam FFF