A divisão do trabalho das empresas no novo paradigma : analise da função "marketing"

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Analysis of logistics demand peak in the end of the sales period : a system dynamics model for the Brazilian consumer products goods segment

Orientador: Orlando Fontes Lima JuniorTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e UrbanismoResumo: O problema desta tese é a concentração da demanda logística no final do período de comercialização no segmento de bens de consumo não-durável. O objetivo deste estudo é analisar tanto as causas, quanto os impactos deste fenômeno nas diferentes organizações envolvidas na cadeia de valor. Para isto, será feito um estudo em uma empresa que possui esta concentração, de tal forma que se possa gerar elementos que ajudem as organizações a entenderem e lidarem com este fenômeno. O método adotado foi a modelagem matemática baseada na simulação de Dinâmicas de Sistema (System Dynamics). Esta abordagem permitiu estudar o problema de uma forma holística e integrada. Após a realização do estudo, pôde-se concluir que a concentração da demanda logística no final do mês pode ter sido provocada por uma série de fatores, sendo que a maioria absoluta deles são fatores endógenos aos agentes. A concentração da demanda provoca impacto negativo no resultado financeiro da indústria no longo prazo e impacto neutro no varejo. Foram testadas diversas políticas capazes de eliminar a concentração da demanda, sendo que algumas delas apresentaram resultados positivos no longo prazo. Entretanto, todas as políticas que foram eficazes na eliminação da concentração provocavam impactos negativos no curto prazo e afetavam um ou mais objetivos departamentais dos agentes. O estudo contribui para a análise dos efeitos sistêmicos da política de descontos temporários com freqüência e duração conhecida. Contribui também para o entendimento da importância de adotar uma abordagem interdisciplinar para lidar com os problemas da gestão da cadeia de suprimentos e a adequação do uso da Dinâmicas de Sistema como método para este tipo de problema.Abstract: The problem of this thesis is the "peak" of logistics service demand which typically occurs at the end of the sales period in the consumer products goods segment known as hockey-stick demand. The objetive is to analyze the cause and impact of this phenomenon in the different companies involved through the value chain. To accomplish this goal, the study focused on a particular company where this business activity occurs on a regular basis in order identify and understand the underlying factors behind the end of the cycle peak, and how to avoid this behavior. The research methodology utilized in the thesis was based on the application of mathematical simulation modeling by using System Dynamics. This approach enabled to achieve a holistic and integrated view of the problem. From the results of the study it was possible to conclude that the end of the sales period demand peak could be caused by a series of factors, the absolute majority of them being endogenous to the agents. The results of the study show that in the long run, the demand peak has negative impacts in the financial results of the industry and is neutral for the retailers. Many alternative policies were identified and simulated to demonstrate the possibility of eliminating the deman peak. Some of the evaluated policies generated positive financial results in the long run; however, all of the evaluated policies caused negative impacts on the short term financial results and affected one or more of the functional objectives of the agents departments. The research also contributed insight into the holistic effects of temporary price discounts with known frequency and duration. Utilizing mathematical simulation modeling and System Dynamics in an interdisciplinary approach to analyzing supply chain management issues was shown to be beneficial to this thesis and the findings.DoutoradoTransportesDoutor em Engenharia Civi

Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração

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Hockey Stick Phenomenon: Supply Chain Management Challenge in Brazil

The objective of this study is to investigate a phenomenon that occurs in Brazil, specifically the spike in demand at the end of the sales period, known as the hockey stick phenomenon. This analysis will encompass the causes as well as the impacts of this phenomenon, in a way that allows alternative policies to be evaluated. Data was collected from a Brazilian branch of a large multinational in the non-durable consumer goods industry and in semi-structured interviews conducted face-to-face with executives of 26 clients. The data was used to generate a continuous simulation model based on the methods of systems dynamics. The findings showed that the phenomenon negatively impacted the manufacturer’s financial performance in the long term and indicated required changes necessary to remediate the phenomenon. This is an empirical study on the hockey stick phenomenon, a problem that affects diverse companies in Brazil. The study showed that companies should not assume the hockey stick phenomenon to be an exogenous problem; it showed that there are policies able to improve financial performance; and it provided ideas regarding ways to carry out the change process