Simulation of the ABL over the North Water polynya and comparison with aircraft data

Simulations for Greenland with focus on the wind regime are presented using the high-resolution non-hydrostatic model COSMO (Consortium for Small scale modeling). The simulations are performed at 15 km, 5.5 km and 1.3 km resolution for the time period of June 2010. The Nares Strait, including the North Water (NOW) polynya, in northwest Greenland was selected as focus of the simulations, since comprehensive measurements of the structure of the boundary layer are available from an aircraft study. The observations on four different days show a shallow stable boundary layer over the polynya and a pronounced low-level jet associated with the flow channeling in the Nares Strait, particularly at Smith Sound. The reproduction of the vertical patterns of wind and temperature by the simulations is realistic at all resolutions and best results are found for 5.5 km and 1.3 km resolution. A vertical displacement of the patterns and an overestimation of the temperature was found. The measured low-level inversion is not simulated well, but overall the vertical structures of the simulation and observation correlate highly. Thus, the model is well suited for simulations in particular for the situation of flow channeling in a topographically complex area. The analysis of the synoptic situations associated with channeled flow through the Nares Strait shows that the wind speed increases with higher pressure difference between the Lincoln Sea and Baffin Bay. Channeling effects lead to a prevailing flow direction towards Baffin Bay. A strong increase of the wind speed occurs at Smith Sound, where the flow also passes over mountains of the Greenland coast. The wind maximum is found downstream of Smith Sound, and typical low-level jets with wind speeds of around 20 m/s occur at a height of 100 m

Impact of coastal polynyas on dense shelf water formation in the Weddell Sea

Dense shelf water is an essential ingredient to the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). It is formed on the continental shelves surrounding Antarctica, when freezing rates are sufficiently high to push ocean salinity to values of 34.65 and higher. Coastal polynyas, where the ice is driven away from the coastline, maintain the highest freezing rates in Antarctic winter. Since theWeddell Sea is considered the most productive source region of AABW, we investigate the dense water formation on the continental shelves of the southwestern Weddell Sea, with a focus on the role of coastal polynyas, using the Finite Element Sea ice-Ocean Model (FESOM), a primitive-equation, hydrostatic ocean model coupled with a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model. The horizontal resolution of the global, unstructured mesh is up to 3 km at the southwestern Weddell Sea coastline; in vertical direction the mesh features 37 depth levels (resolution increases toward the surface). The model was initialized on 01/01/1980 with data from the Polar Hydrographic Climatology and forced with NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data. The 20-year period 1990-2009 is used for analysis. Our results indicate that in an average year, the polynya freezing rates of 9 cm d--1 (corresponding to a salt input of 2.5 kg m--2d--1) cause a seasonal variation in salinity of 0.3 psu under the Ronne polynya and result in the production of 5.10-4 km-3 dense shelf water, which leaves the continental shelf (outlined by the 700 m isobath in this study) at a long-term mean volume flux of 5.2 Sv. Some of this water contributes to the formation of Weddell Sea Deep/BottomWater, but a large fraction is diluted by mixing with ambient water and leaves the Weddell Sea at intermediate levels

Quantifying polynya ice production in the Laptev Sea with the COSMO model

Arctic flaw polynyas are considered to be highly productive areas for the formation of sea-ice throughout the winter season. Most estimates of sea-ice production are based on the surface energy balance equation and use global reanalyses as atmospheric forcing, which are too coarse to take into account the impact of polynyas on the atmosphere. Additional errors in the estimates of polynya ice production may result from the methods of calculating atmospheric energy fluxes and the assumption of a thin-ice distribution within polynyas. The present study uses simulations using the mesoscale weather prediction model of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO), where polynya area is prescribed from satellite data. The polynya area is either assumed to be ice-free or to be covered with thin ice of 10 cm. Simulations have been performed for two winter periods (2007/08 and 2008/09). When using a realistic thin-ice thickness of 10 cm, sea-ice production in Laptev polynyas amount to 30 km3 and 73 km3 for the winters 2007/08 and 2008/09, respectively. The higher turbulent energy fluxes of open-water polynyas result in a 50-70% increase in sea-ice production (49 km3 in 2007/08 and 123 km3 in 2008/09). Our results suggest that previous studies have overestimated ice production in the Laptev Sea

Long-term analysis of Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice interactions in Laptev Sea polynyas using high-resolution NWP simulations

The Laptev Sea area of the Siberian Arctic is known as a region of high polynya activities throughout the winter season. We analyze the impact of open-water and thin-ice covered polynyas on heat and moisture fluxes and the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) using downscaled NWP simulations. ERA-Interim reanalysis data are used as forcing for dynamically downscaled COSMO runs with 15 and 5 km horizontal resolution. Sea ice information is taken from AMSR-E data and the period of investigation is 2002-2011. Our results clearly prove that polynyas moisten and heat the air downwind the polynya (up to several hundred kilometers) and additionally increase cloudiness. The analysis of surface energy balance components shows the sensible heat flux H0 as the largest contributor to ice production. Mean monthly H0 over polynyas is about 150 W/m2 for Dec.-Feb. 2002-2011. This is about three times higher than the energy loss by net radiation. Small polynyas have the largest heat loss (and ice production) per surface unit. In comparison with most previous studies our results suggest that most preceding studies overestimated the polynya ice production of the Laptev Sea

Association between polymorphisms in NOS3 and KCNH2 and social memory

Social memory, including the ability to recognize faces and voices, is essential for social relationships. It has a large heritable component, but the knowledge about the contributing genes is sparse. The genetic variation underlying inter-individual differences in social memory was investigated in an exploratory sample (n=55), genotyped with a chip comprising approximately 200.000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and in a validation sample (n=582), where 30 SNPs were targeted. In the exploratory study face identity recognition was measured. The validation study also measured vocal sound recognition, as well as recognition of faces and vocal sounds combined (multimodal condition). In the exploratory study, the 30 SNPs that were associated with face recognition at puncorrected<0.001 and located in genes, were chosen for further study. In the validation study two of the SNPs showed significant associations with recognition of faces, vocal sounds, and multimodal stimuli: rs1800779 in the gene encoding nitric oxide synthase 3 (NOS3) and rs3807370 in the gene encoding the voltage-gated channel, subfamily H, member 2 (KCNH2), in strong linkage disequilibrium with each other. The uncommon alleles were associated with superior performance, and the effects were present for men only (p<0.0002). The exploratory study also showed a weaker but significant association with (non-emotional) word recognition, an effect that was independent of the effect on face recognition. This study demonstrates evidence for an association between NOS3 and KCNH2 SNPs and social memory

A Nested Case-Control Study of Intrauterine Exposure to Persistent Organochlorine Pollutants in Relation to Risk of Type 1 Diabetes

BACKGROUND: The incidence of type 1 diabetes in Europe is increasing at a rate of about 3% per year and there is also an increasing incidence throughout the world. Type 1 diabetes is a complex disease caused by multiple genetic and environmental factors. Persistent organochlorine pollutants (POPs) have been suggested as a triggering factor for developing childhood type 1 diabetes. The aim of this case-control study was to assess possible impacts of in utero exposure to POPs on type 1 diabetes. METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The study was performed as a case-control study within a biobank in Malmö, a city located in the Southern part of Sweden. The study included 150 cases (children who had their diagnosis mostly before 18 years of age) and 150 controls, matched for gender and day of birth. 2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB-153) and the major DDT metabolite 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis (p-chlorophenyl)-ethylene (p,p'-DDE) were used as a biomarkers for POP exposure. When comparing the quartile with the highest maternal serum concentrations of PCB-153 with the other quartiles, an odds ratio (OR) of 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42, 1.27) was obtained. Similar results was obtained for p,p'-DDE (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.29, 1.08). CONCLUSIONS: The hypothesis that in utero exposure to POPs will trigger the risk for developing type 1 diabetes was not supported by the results. The risk estimates did, although not statistically significant, go in the opposite direction. However, it is not reasonable to believe that exposure to POPs should protect against type 1 diabetes

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Protective intraoperative ventilation with higher versus lower levels of positive end-expiratory pressure in obese patients (PROBESE): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) increase the morbidity and mortality of surgery in obese patients. High levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) with lung recruitment maneuvers may improve intraoperative respiratory function, but they can also compromise hemodynamics, and the effects on PPCs are uncertain. We hypothesized that intraoperative mechanical ventilation using high PEEP with periodic recruitment maneuvers, as compared with low PEEP without recruitment maneuvers, prevents PPCs in obese patients. Methods/design The PRotective Ventilation with Higher versus Lower PEEP during General Anesthesia for Surgery in OBESE Patients (PROBESE) study is a multicenter, two-arm, international randomized controlled trial. In total, 2013 obese patients with body mass index ≥35 kg/m2 scheduled for at least 2 h of surgery under general anesthesia and at intermediate to high risk for PPCs will be included. Patients are ventilated intraoperatively with a low tidal volume of 7 ml/kg (predicted body weight) and randomly assigned to PEEP of 12 cmH2O with lung recruitment maneuvers (high PEEP) or PEEP of 4 cmH2O without recruitment maneuvers (low PEEP). The occurrence of PPCs will be recorded as collapsed composite of single adverse pulmonary events and represents the primary endpoint. Discussion To our knowledge, the PROBESE trial is the first multicenter, international randomized controlled trial to compare the effects of two different levels of intraoperative PEEP during protective low tidal volume ventilation on PPCs in obese patients. The results of the PROBESE trial will support anesthesiologists in their decision to choose a certain PEEP level during general anesthesia for surgery in obese patients in an attempt to prevent PPCs. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02148692. Registered on 23 May 2014; last updated 7 June 2016. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-017-1929-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users