Living with risk

Living with risk can lead to anticipatory feelings such as anxiety or hopefulness. Such feelings can a¤ect the choice between lotteries that will be played out in the future - choice may be motivated not only by the (static) risks involved but also by the desire to reduce anxiety or to promote savoring. This paper provides a model of preference in a three-period setting that is axiomatic and includes a role for anticipatory feelings. It is shown that the model of preference can accommodate intuitive patterns of demand for information such as information seeking when a favorable outcome is very likely and information aversion when it is more likely that the outcome will be unfavorable. Behavioral meaning is given to statements such as "individual 1 is anxious" and "2 is more anxious than 1". Finally, the model is di¤erentiated sharply from the classic model due to Kreps and Porteus.risk, anxiety, savoring, anticipatory feelings, demand for commitment, demand for information, temporal resolution of risk, temptation

Optimal learning under robustness and time-consistency

We model learning in a continuous-time Brownian setting where there is prior ambiguity. The associated model of preference values robustness and is time-consistent. It is applied to study optimal learning when the choice between actions can be postponed, at a per-unit-time cost, in order to observe a signal that provides information about an unknown parameter. The corresponding optimal stopping problem is solved in closed form, with a focus on two specific settings: Ellsberg’s two-urn thought experiment expanded to allow learning before the choice of bets, and a robust version of the classical problem of sequential testing of two simple hypotheses about the unknown drift of a Wiener process. In both cases, the link between robustness and the demand for learning is studied.Accepted manuscrip

Ambiguous volatility and asset pricing in continuous time

This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures the decision-maker's concern with ambiguity about both volatility and drift. Corresponding extensions of some basic results in asset pricing theory are presented. First, we derive arbitrage-free pricing rules based on hedging arguments. Ambiguous volatility implies market incompleteness that rules out perfect hedging. Consequently, hedging arguments determine prices only up to intervals. However, sharper predictions can be obtained by assuming preference maximization and equilibrium. Thus we apply the model of utility to a representative agent endowment economy to study equilibrium asset returns. A version of the C-CAPM is derived and the effects of ambiguous volatility are described

Ambiguous correlation

Many decisions are made in environments where outcomes are determined by the realization of multiple random events. A decision maker may be uncertain how these events are related. We identify and experimentally substantiate behavior that intuitively reflects a lack of confidence in their joint distribution. Our findings suggest a dimension of ambiguity which is different from that in the classical distinction between risk and "Knightian uncertainty"

Ecology of fishes in Upper Newport Bay, California: seasonal dynamics and community structure

A total of 366 bimonthly (January 1978-January 1979) samples taken with six types of gear (otter trawl, gill net, bag seine, small seine, drop net, square enclosure - all with replication except the gill net) at four stations in upper Newport Bay, California yielded 51,816 fishes belonging to 46 species and weighing over 353 kg. Atherinops affinis (topsmelt) was the most abundant species accounting for 76% of total individuals. Seven species, all of low trophic levels, made up over 97% of the total catch. Mugil cephalus (striped mullet) ranked first in biomass (= 36% of the total) with six species accounting for more than 80% of the total biomass. The largest number of individuals (71%) was collected with the bag seine, the greatest number of species (35) was captured with the otter trawl and the largest percentage of the biomass (56%)was obtained with the gill net. Species richness, number of individuals and biomass were lowest in January (1978 or 1979) or March and highest in July (numbers, biomass) or September (species). Bimonthly diversity (H') values ranged from 0.48 to 2.17 (overall value 1.05) and tended to be inversely related to abundance levels. Species richness was greatest at Station 4 (the lowermost station) and least at Station 1 (the uppermost station). Numbers of individuals and biomass peaked at Station 2 and reached lowest levels at Station 1. Length-frequency analysis of six of the most abundant species indicated utilization of the upper bay by two or more stages in the life history of these species. More than 92,000 eggs belonging to seven taxa and an unknown category and 426 larvae from 20 taxa were collected with a 0.5 m net mounted on an epibenthic sled during the same bimonthly periods and at the same stations as the juvenile/adult samples. Most of the eggs were collected at Station 2 in May with the numbers overwhelmingly dominated by those of Anchoa compressa (deepbody anchovy) (99.7% of total numbers). The most abundant larva was that of Clevelandia ios (arrow goby). Nearly 60% of the total larval catch was made up of members of the family Gobiidae. Larval taxa and individuals were fewest in January (1978). The number of taxa was highest in March, September and January (1979) whereas larval numbers peaked in May. The number of taxa and of individual larvae varied only slightly among the four stations. Asymptotic species accumulation curves indicated adequate sampling of juvenile/adult fishes. Cluster analysis produced eight species groups of resident and periodic species that variously utilize the three main habitats (channel, inshore, pannes) in the upper bay. Species richness and abundance were positively correlated with both temperature and salinity. Temperature, salinity and depth of capture were frequently correlated with individual species abundances and were used in combination to partially explain the spatial utilization of species and species groups. The upper bay fish community is important and worthy of preservation for at least three reasons: 1) it contains species assemblages not duplicated in any other coastal environment; 2) it contains life history stages of a variety of coastal fish species; and 3) it contains large populations of small, low-trophic level species and juveniles of other species which serve as forage for larger, predatory species that are frequently of economic importance. Members of the fish community respond noticeably to altered environmental conditions such as the heavy rainfall (and accompanying low salinity and high turbidity) that occurred during the early months of 1978. The short and long term, as yet often unpredictable, fluctuations in the populations emphasize the need for periodic monitoring and for the development of a mathematical model of the fish community if it is to be thoroughly understood and properly managed. (102pp.

Predicting the Success of Invasive Species in the Great Bay Estuarine Researve

The University of New Hampshire Zoology Department reports on a study designed to continue monitoring the distribution of invasive species in the Great Bay Estuary and to carry out laboratory experiments designed to test the effects of salinity on ascidian mortality and determine predators of ascidian species. Researchers collected presence/absence and abundance data of invasive species at four sites within the Great Bay Estuarine System. The report gives a brief description of the results of the monitoring program to compare results obtained from 2006 to 2007 and to assess the response of ascidians to varying salinity and predators. This report specifically includes monitoring data from 2007 and results of laboratory and field experiments examining the effects of salinity and predators on ascidian distribution

Topographic Map Acquisition In U.S. Academic Libraries

published or submitted for publicatio

A Preliminary Assessment of Tidal Flooding along the New Hampshire Coast: Past, Present and Future

This report presents the results of a preliminary study that examines several critical coastal issues for New Hampshire including sea level fluctuations (past, present and future), shoreline migrations, and tidal flooding. Included are: 1) an analysis of sea level changes over the Holocene and resulting shoreline migrations, 2) an assessment of low-lying areas with elevations below selected tidal flooding datums in coastal areas, and 3) an assessment of increases in low-lying areas that are potentially at risk to tidal flooding over the next century due to sea level rise