Past Tense

Poetry Contest, Honorable Mentio

Paper Delivered to the Ed Dorado Millennium Society for the Preservation and Contemplation of Purely Abstract Thoughts and Gestures

Short Story Contest, Honorable Mentio

Genetics Analysis Workshop 16 Problem 2: tTe Framingham Heart Study Data

Genetic Analysis Workshop 16 (GAW16) Problem 2 presented data from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), an observational, prospective study of risk factors for cardiovascular disease begun in 1948. Data have been collected in three generations of family participants in the study and the data presented for GAW16 included phenotype data from all three generations, with four examinations of data collected repeatedly for the first two generations. The trait data consisted of information on blood pressure, hypertension treatment, lipid levels, diabetes and blood glucose, smoking, alcohol consumed, weight, and coronary heart disease incidence. Additionally, genotype data obtained through a genome-wide scan (FHS SHARe) of 550,000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms from Affymetrix chips were included with the GAW16 data. The genotype data were also used for GAW16 Problem 3, where simulated phenotypes were generated using the actual FHS genotypes. These data served to provide investigators with a rich resource to study the behavior of genome-wide scans with longitudinally collected family data and to develop and apply new procedures.National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (2 N01-HC-25195-06); National Institutes of Health (National Institute of General Medical Sciences R01 GM031575

INCORPORATING SAFETY-FIRST CONSTRAINTS IN LINEAR PROGRAMMING PRODUCTION MODELS

A recent survey indicated that many procedures view risk in a safety-first context. Traditional methods used to impose safety-first constraints in optimization models have often been difficult to implement. This is particularly true when endogenous decisions affect the distribution of the chance-constrained random variable. This paper presents a method whereby probabilistic constraints can be easily imposed upon finitely discrete random variables. The procedure uses a linear version of the lower partial moment stochastic inequality. The resulting solutions are somewhat conservative but are less so than the results using the previously published mean income-absolute deviation stochastic inequality.Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

PERFORMANCE OF RISK-INCOME MODELS OUTSIDE THE ORIGINAL DATA SET

Selected risk programming solutions (i.e., profit maximization, Target-MOTAD, and MOTAD) are tested in an economic environment outside the data set from which they were developed. Specifically, solutions are derived from either a longer 10-year (1965-74) or shorter 6-year estimation period (1969-74), and then, they are tested for consistent risk-income characteristics over a later 10-year period (1975-84). Risk solutions estimated from earlier periods perform well in the later test period in spite of different economic conditions between time periods. However, favorable performance may be related to the specific example used in this analysis. Further testing for other farm situations is needed before general conclusions can be reached.Risk and Uncertainty,

Genome-Wide Association to Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference: The Framingham Heart Study 100K Project

BACKGROUND: Obesity is related to multiple cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors as well as CVD and has a strong familial component. We tested for association between SNPs on the Affymetrix 100K SNP GeneChip and measures of adiposity in the Framingham Heart Study. METHODS: A total of 1341 Framingham Heart Study participants in 310 families genotyped with the Affymetrix 100K SNP GeneChip had adiposity traits measured over 30 years of follow up. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), weight change, height, and radiographic measures of adiposity (subcutaneous adipose tissue, visceral adipose tissue, waist circumference, sagittal height) were measured at multiple examination cycles. Multivariable-adjusted residuals, adjusting for age, age-squared, sex, smoking, and menopausal status, were evaluated in association with the genotype data using additive Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) and Family Based Association Test (FBAT) models. We prioritized mean BMI over offspring examinations (1–7) and cohort examinations (10, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 26) and mean WC over offspring examinations (4–7) for presentation. We evaluated associations with 70,987 SNPs on autosomes with minor allele frequencies of at least 0.10, Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium p ≥ 0.001, and call rates of at least 80%. RESULTS: The top SNPs to be associated with mean BMI and mean WC by GEE were rs110683 (p-value 1.22*10-7) and rs4471028 (p-values 1.96*10-7). Please see for the complete set of results. We were able to validate SNPs in known genes that have been related to BMI or other adiposity traits, including the ESR1 Xba1 SNP, PPARG, and ADIPOQ. CONCLUSION: Adiposity traits are associated with SNPs on the Affymetrix 100K SNP GeneChip. Replication of these initial findings is necessary. These data will serve as a resource for replication as more genes become identified with BMI and WC.National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study (N01-HC-25195); Atwood (R01 DK066241); National Institutes of Health National Center for Research Resources Shared Instrumentation grant (1S10RR163736-01A1

Consistency of linkage results across exams and methods in the Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND: The repeated measures in the Framingham Heart Study in the Genetic Analysis Workshop 13 data set allow us to test for consistency of linkage results within a study across time. We compared regression-based linkage to variance components linkage across time for six quantitative traits in the real data. RESULTS: The variance components approach found 11 significant linkages, the regression-based approach found 4. There was only one region that overlapped. Consistency between exams generally decreased as the time interval between exams increased. The regression-based approach showed higher consistency in linkage results across exams. CONCLUSION: The low consistency between exams and between methods may help explain the lack of replication between studies in this field

Genetic Correlates of Brain Aging on MRI and Cognitive Test Measures: A Genome-Wide Association and Linkage Analysis in the Framingham Study

BACKGROUND: Brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and cognitive tests can identify heritable endophenotypes associated with an increased risk of developing stroke, dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD). We conducted a genome-wide association (GWA) and linkage analysis exploring the genetic basis of these endophenotypes in a community-based sample. METHODS: A total of 705 stroke- and dementia-free Framingham participants (age 62 +9 yrs, 50% male) who underwent volumetric brain MRI and cognitive testing (1999–2002) were genotyped. We used linear models adjusting for first degree relationships via generalized estimating equations (GEE) and family based association tests (FBAT) in additive models to relate qualifying single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, 70,987 autosomal on Affymetrix 100K Human Gene Chip with minor allele frequency ≥ 0.10, genotypic call rate ≥ 0.80, and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium p-value ≥ 0.001) to multivariable-adjusted residuals of 9 MRI measures including total cerebral brain (TCBV), lobar, ventricular and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volumes, and 6 cognitive factors/tests assessing verbal and visuospatial memory, visual scanning and motor speed, reading, abstract reasoning and naming. We determined multipoint identity-by-descent utilizing 10,592 informative SNPs and 613 short tandem repeats and used variance component analyses to compute LOD scores. RESULTS: The strongest gene-phenotype association in FBAT analyses was between SORL1 (rs1131497; p = 3.2 × 10-6) and abstract reasoning, and in GEE analyses between CDH4 (rs1970546; p = 3.7 × 10-8) and TCBV. SORL1 plays a role in amyloid precursor protein processing and has been associated with the risk of AD. Among the 50 strongest associations (25 each by GEE and FBAT) were other biologically interesting genes. Polymorphisms within 28 of 163 candidate genes for stroke, AD and memory impairment were associated with the endophenotypes studied at p < 0.001. We confirmed our previously reported linkage of WMH on chromosome 4 and describe linkage of reading performance to a marker on chromosome 18 (GATA11A06), previously linked to dyslexia (LOD scores = 2.2 and 5.1). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that genes associated with clinical neurological disease also have detectable effects on subclinical phenotypes. These hypothesis generating data illustrate the use of an unbiased approach to discover novel pathways that may be involved in brain aging, and could be used to replicate observations made in other studies.National Institutes of Health National Center for Research Resources Shared Instrumentation grant (ISI0RR163736-01A1); National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study (N01-HC-25195); National Institute of Aging (5R01-AG08122, 5R01-AG16495); National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (5R01-NS17950

Allele frequency misspecification: effect on power and Type I error of model-dependent linkage analysis of quantitative traits under random ascertainment

BACKGROUND: Studies of model-based linkage analysis show that trait or marker model misspecification leads to decreasing power or increasing Type I error rate. An increase in Type I error rate is seen when marker related parameters (e.g., allele frequencies) are misspecified and ascertainment is through the trait, but lod-score methods are expected to be robust when ascertainment is random (as is often the case in linkage studies of quantitative traits). In previous studies, the power of lod-score linkage analysis using the "correct" generating model for the trait was found to increase when the marker allele frequencies were misspecified and parental data were missing. An investigation of Type I error rates, conducted in the absence of parental genotype data and with misspecification of marker allele frequencies, showed that an inflation in Type I error rate was the cause of at least part of this apparent increased power. To investigate whether the observed inflation in Type I error rate in model-based LOD score linkage was due to sampling variation, the trait model was estimated from each sample using REGCHUNT, an automated segregation analysis program used to fit models by maximum likelihood using many different sets of initial parameter estimates. RESULTS: The Type I error rates observed using the trait models generated by REGCHUNT were usually closer to the nominal levels than those obtained when assuming the generating trait model. CONCLUSION: This suggests that the observed inflation of Type I error upon misspecification of marker allele frequencies is at least partially due to sampling variation. Thus, with missing parental genotype data, lod-score linkage is not as robust to misspecification of marker allele frequencies as has been commonly thought