Investing in monarch conservation: understanding private funding dynamics

Non-profit environmental organizations (NGOs) rely heavily on external donors to fulfill their mandates. However, forecasting donations for long-term planning is an elusive task at best. The non-compulsory nature of donation requires NGOs to understand how donors’ attention and funding allocations change over time as conservation scenarios change and incorporate these insights into their budgeting plans. We hypothesize that an NGO can hinder its capacity to reach its conservation goals by neglecting its donor-NGO-natural system (DNNS), which is reactive to the socio-ecological context. To test our hypothesis, we compared the ecological outcomes derived from a budgeting strategy assuming donors have a fixed willingness to pay throughout the program (open-loop) against the reality that donor preferences change over time (closed-loop) based on the evolving ecological context, partly driven by the program’s actions. Our analysis was performed using two different willingness to pay (WTP) behavioural models, one representing donors informed about the success of the program supported (GPI), and another without such information (GPI), evidencing how the underlying assumptions about the target donors can radically change the organization’s fundraising strategy. Next, we used our closed-loop approach to estimate NGO’s optimal yearly donation requests to achieve a conservation target. Finally, we tested the consequences of presuming an incorrect WTP behavioural model while estimating optimal yearly donation requests by applying the optimization results from the previous step into a model parameterized with a different behavioural model. Our model was created by coupling a discrete choice experiment (DCE) and a systems dynamics model, developing a coupled social-ecological model of the eastern Monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus), a charismatic long-distant migrant butterfly that has dwindled in numbers across North America mainly due to the increases in GMO agriculture. Our results showed a significant difference in donations received and ecological outcome forecasted by an open-loop model and the actual numbers obtained by the more real-life, closed-loop model, highlighting the importance of accounting for human behaviour during the planning phase of a long-term conservation strategy. Next, when we used our closed-loop to estimate optimal donation requests, the conservation objectives and funds raised were consistently and efficiently achieved, regardless of the underlying behavioural WTP model. We also designed novel visual tools from the behaviour WTP model exploration to bridge the gap between science insights obtained from DCEs and decision-making. However, when we used closed-loop optimal donation requests obtained from one WTP behaviour model into a simulation parameterized with different WTP behavioural models, considerable ecological and financial targets deviations arose. These deviations highlight the importance of acknowledging the dynamic nature of donor’s behaviour and the need to thoroughly characterize such behaviour. Finally, we introduce a novel forecasting tool that conservation managers will have at their disposal to improve the accuracy of their budget forecasting and, ultimately, increase the program’s success rate

A Landscape-Level Assessment of Restoration Resource Allocation for the Eastern Monarch Butterfly

The Monarch butterfly eastern population (Danaus plexippus) is in decline primarily due to habitat loss. Current habitat restoration programs focus on re-establishing milkweed, the primary food resource for Monarch caterpillars, in the central United States of America. However, individual components of the Monarch life cycle function as part of an integrated whole. Here we develop the MOBU-SDyM, a migration-wide systems dynamics model of the Monarch butterfly migratory cycle to explore alternative management strategies’ impacts. Our model offers several advances over previous efforts, considering complex variables such as dynamic temperature-dependent developmental times, dynamic habitat availability, and weather-related mortality across the entire range. We first explored whether the predominant focus of milkweed restoration in the mid-range of the Monarch’s migration could be overestimating the Monarch’s actual habitat requirements. Second, we examined the robustness of using the recommended 1.2–1.6 billion milkweed stems as a policy objective when accounting for factors such as droughts, changes in temperature, and the stems’ effective usability by the Monarchs. Third, we used the model to estimate the number and distribution of stems across the northern, central, and southern regions of the breeding range needed to reach a self-sustainable long-term Monarch population of six overwintering hectares. Our analysis revealed that concentrating milkweed growth in the central region increases the size of the overwintering colonies more so than equivalent growth in the south region, with growth in the northern region having a negligible effect. However, even though simulating an increase in milkweed stems in the south did not play a key role in increasing the size of the overwintering colonies, it plays a paramount role in keeping the population above a critically small size. Abiotic factors considerably influenced the actual number of stems needed, but, in general, our estimates of required stems were 43–91% larger than the number of stems currently set as a restoration target: our optimal allocation efforts were 7.35, 92, and 0.15% to the south, central, and northern regions, respectively. Systems dynamics’ analytical and computational strengths provided us with new avenues to investigate the Monarch’s migration as a complex biological system and to contribute to more robust restoration policies for this unique species

Diversity of canopy spiders in north-temperate hardwood forests

The objective of this thesis was to understand the spatial patterns and processes responsible for canopy and understorey spider (Arachnida: Araneae) diversity at multiple spatial scales in north-temperate hardwood forests. I sampled tree trunks (sticky traps) and foliage (beating) of sugar maple and American beech tree canopies and their understorey saplings in old growth forests near Montreal, Quebec. Results show the composition of canopy and understorey assemblages differed significantly, and so did sugar maple and American beech canopy assemblages. Each stratum was also dominated by different species. The rank-abundance distribution of species from each habitat wsa also verticaly stratified because it fit different distribution models. Different factors likely structure assemblages in both habitats, particularly since the canopy is a less stable environment. Spiders from canopy and understorey foliage were tested in a laboratory for their propensity to balloon. General linear models indicated that small sized web-building spiders of the RTA and Orbicularia clades have the highest propensity to balloon. Small bodied species initiated ballooning regardless of the habitat they were collected in or their developmental stage. My results support the mixed evolutionarily stable strategy theory and indicate the absence of risk-spreading in the dispersal strategy of canopy spiders. My last chapter focused on dispersal capacity and diversity patterns of spiders at multiple spatial scales. Analyses of the species diversity of limited and high dispersal capacity species subsets through nested-multivariate ANOVA, additive diversity partitioning, and species-abundance distribution curves all point towards species-sorting processes as the main driver of local community spider diversity at the tree and stand spatial scales. Mass-effects and patch-dynamic processes drive site and regional scale diversity patterns. This thesis demonstrates that spiders provide good models to test many biological hypotheses. The research chapters of this thesis test hypotheses on the vertical stratification of forest spider diversity, the evolution of local dispersal adaptations, and the importance of dispersal capacity on species diversity patterns through a metacommunity framework

eButterfly: Leveraging Massive Online Citizen Science for Butterfly Conservation

Data collection, storage, analysis, visualization, and dissemination are changing rapidly due to advances in new technologies driven by computer science and universal access to the internet. These technologies and web connections place human observers front and center in citizen science-driven research and are critical in generating new discoveries and innovation in such fields as astronomy, biodiversity, and meteorology. Research projects utilizing a citizen science approach address scientific problems at regional, continental, and even global scales otherwise impossible for a single lab or even a small collection of academic researchers. Here we describe eButterfly an integrative checklist-based butterfly monitoring and database web-platform that leverages the skills and knowledge of recreational butterfly enthusiasts to create a globally accessible unified database of butterfly observations across North America. Citizen scientists, conservationists, policy makers, and scientists are using eButterfly data to better understand the biological patterns of butterfly species diversity and how environmental conditions shape these patterns in space and time. eButterfly in collaboration with thousands of butterfly enthusiasts has created a near real-time butterfly data resource producing tens of thousands of observations per year open to all to share and explore.NatureServe Canada; Agriculture Canada; National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grants; Canadian Foundation for Innovation; Ontario Innovation Trust; University of Ottawa Research Chair in Macroecology and ConservationOpen access journal.This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Predicting the distribution of poorly-documented species, Northern black widow (<i>Latrodectus variolus</i>) and Black purse-web spider (<i>Sphodros niger</i>), using museum specimens and citizen science data

<div><p>Predicting species distributions requires substantial numbers of georeferenced occurrences and access to remotely sensed climate and land cover data. Reliable estimates of the distribution of most species are unavailable, either because digitized georeferenced distributional data are rare or not digitized. The emergence of online biodiversity information databases and citizen science platforms dramatically improves the amount of information available to establish current and historical distribution of lesser-documented species. We demonstrate how the combination of museum and online citizen science databases can be used to build reliable distribution maps for poorly documented species. To do so, we investigated the distribution and the potential range expansions of two north-eastern North American spider species (Arachnida: Araneae), the Northern black widow (<i>Latrodectus variolus</i>) and the Black purse-web spider (S<i>phodros niger</i>). Our results provide the first predictions of distribution for these two species. We also found that the Northern black widow has expanded north of its previously known range providing valuable information for public health education. For the Black purse-web spider, we identify potential habitats outside of its currently known range, thus providing a better understanding of the ecology of this poorly-documented species. We demonstrate that increasingly available online biodiversity databases are rapidly expanding biogeography research for conservation, ecology, and in specific cases, epidemiology, of lesser known taxa.</p></div

Predictive performance of <i>Latrodectus variolus</i> and <i>Sphodros niger</i> distribution models assessed through the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), correlation coefficients (COR), and true skill statistics (TSS).

<p>Values are the average (± SD) of 100 iterated models.</p

Summary of occurrence data available for <i>Sphodros niger</i> and <i>Latrodectus variolus</i> distribution models, including the sources of data, their period of collection, and sample sizes.

<p>Other sources include private collections, personal observations, and news articles.</p