Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent

Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes. The authors use systematic monitoring across the former USSR to investigate phenological changes across taxa. The long-term mean temperature of a site emerged as a strong predictor of phenological change, with further imprints of trophic level, event timing, site, year and biotic interactions.Peer reviewe

Chronicles of nature calendar, a long-term and large-scale multitaxon database on phenology

We present an extensive, large-scale, long-term and multitaxon database on phenological and climatic variation, involving 506,186 observation dates acquired in 471 localities in Russian Federation, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan. The data cover the period 1890-2018, with 96% of the data being from 1960 onwards. The database is rich in plants, birds and climatic events, but also includes insects, amphibians, reptiles and fungi. The database includes multiple events per species, such as the onset days of leaf unfolding and leaf fall for plants, and the days for first spring and last autumn occurrences for birds. The data were acquired using standardized methods by permanent staff of national parks and nature reserves (87% of the data) and members of a phenological observation network (13% of the data). The database is valuable for exploring how species respond in their phenology to climate change. Large-scale analyses of spatial variation in phenological response can help to better predict the consequences of species and community responses to climate change.Peer reviewe

Theoretical and practical aspects of the synthesis of optimal systems of energy complex enterprises for preparation and processing of hydrocarbons

We have developed a technique for structural-parametric synthesis of optimal energy complex enterprises for preparation and processing of hydrocarbons, which employs the decomposition-search principle to create technological and constructive solutions; it is also based on mathematical apparatus of generalized quantitative quality evaluation. Developed the structure and composition of the equipment of the energy complex with the system of electric-, warmly- and water supply. The complex is integrated energy–technological systems, and provide maximum utilization of recycled energy resources and waste. The developed information-program software allows performing an evaluation of the a multi-criterion of the efficiency of systems of energy complex

Theoretical and practical aspects of the synthesis of optimal systems of energy complex enterprises for preparation and processing of hydrocarbons

We have developed a technique for structural-parametric synthesis of optimal energy complex enterprises for preparation and processing of hydrocarbons, which employs the decomposition-search principle to create technological and constructive solutions; it is also based on mathematical apparatus of generalized quantitative quality evaluation. Developed the structure and composition of the equipment of the energy complex with the system of electric-, warmly- and water supply. The complex is integrated energy–technological systems, and provide maximum utilization of recycled energy resources and waste. The developed information-program software allows performing an evaluation of the a multi-criterion of the efficiency of systems of energy complex

Utilization plants in energy and water supply systems of oil and gas enterprises

Within the context of energy efficiency and environmental safety, the creation of energy and water supply systems integrated with the units for utilization of combustible waste, low-pressure gases and industrial wastewater are of high priority for oil and gas enterprises. A method for the synthesis of these rational systems and a two-dimensional model for evaluating performance indicators are proposed. We have developed alternative structures based on the block-modular principle of equipment composition formation, which allows structurally parametric integration of energy and utilization modules with technological productions; performed pre-project evaluation of the effectiveness of alternative options for the energy and water supply system with the utilization of low-pressure gases, thermal neutralization of industrial wastewater for methanol recovery plants and designed a multipurpose oil and gas condensate processing enterprise. Integration of utilization, energy and technological installations in energyand water supply systems allows reducing the consumption of heat and electric energy from external sources by 56–100%, and water consumption by 40–50%. Accordingly, the cost of wastewater reducing by an average of 76–93% for oil and gas condensate processing facilities. Almost complete utilization of low-pressure hydrocarbon gases is achieved (the volume of flared emissions is reduced by 90–98%)

Differences in spatial versus temporal reaction norms for spring and autumn phenological events

For species to stay temporally tuned to their environment, they use cues such as the accumulation of degree-days. The relationships between the timing of a phenological event in a population and its environmental cue can be described by a population-level reaction norm. Variation in reaction norms along environmental gradients may either intensify the environmental effects on timing (cogradient variation) or attenuate the effects (countergradient variation). To resolve spatial and seasonal variation in species' response, we use a unique dataset of 91 taxa and 178 phenological events observed across a network of 472 monitoring sites, spread across the nations of the former Soviet Union. We show that compared to local rates of advancement of phenological events with the advancement of temperature-related cues (i.e., variation within site over years), spatial variation in reaction norms tend to accentuate responses in spring (cogradient variation) and attenuate them in autumn (countergradient variation). As a result, among-population variation in the timing of events is greater in spring and less in autumn than if all populations followed the same reaction norm regardless of location. Despite such signs of local adaptation, overall phenotypic plasticity was not sufficient for phenological events to keep exact pace with their cues-the earlier the year, the more did the timing of the phenological event lag behind the timing of the cue. Overall, these patterns suggest that differences in the spatial versus temporal reaction norms will affect species' response to climate change in opposite ways in spring and autumn