Restrictive Fiscal Policies in Europe: What are the Likely Effects?

In Europe, fiscal policy will be distinctly more restrictive from 2011 onwards. The fiscal consolidation efforts scheduled for 2011 represent 1.2 percentage points of GDP in the eurozone and 1.8 percentage points in the UK. Such adjustments hit short-term demand and depress activity by Keynesian effects. However, non-Keynesian mechanisms can attenuate them, not least through expectations and supply effects. The impact of fiscal consolidation is also related to the economic background: in line with the recent developments on sovereign bond markets, fiscal variables are found to have a significant impact on interest rate spreads on euro area public bonds. According to our main result, when debt exceeds 100 percentage points of GDP, the marginal effect on the spread of one additional point of debt would be about 7 to 8 basis points. Accordingly, fiscal consolidation is likely to weigh down on euro area sovereign risk premiums. In this light, the NiGEM international macroeconomic model is used to assess the GDP impact of European fiscal consolidation plans. Overall, euro area's GDP in 2011 is estimated to have been 0.6% lower than in a scenario without fiscal consolidation. This impact may however be an upper bound: these simulations do not take account of the possibility of a sudden increase of financial distress following a major loss of confidence in the sovereign bonds of some euro area countries.Fiscal consolidation, sovereign risk spread, eurozone

METHODS FOR THE SHIFT DESIGN AND PERSONNEL TASK SCHEDULING PROBLEM

Colloque avec actes et comité de lecture. internationale.International audienceThis paper introduces an overview of the methods that have been used in the literature to solve the Shift Design and Personnel Task Scheduling Problem with Equity. Basically, this problem aims at designing a schedule while assigning fixed tasks, that cannot be preempted, to an heterogeneous workforce. Such problem may occur in several contexts, where industrial activity requires a sharp and efficient management of workers. In this paper, we focus on the particular case of a company specialized in drug evaluation. This company is facing a scheduling problem that may be modelized as a Shift Design and Personnel Task Scheduling Problem with Equity. Based on realistic instances of this particular problem, we compare the relative performances of the different methods considered: A two-phase method, a constraint-based approach and a large neighborhood search derived from the constraint-based model

A two-phase method for the Shift Design and Personnel Task Scheduling Problem with Equity objective

International audienceIn this paper, we study the Shift Design and Personnel Task Scheduling Problem with Equity objective (SDPTSP-E), initially introduced in [11]. This problem consists in designing the shifts of workers and assigning a set of tasks to quali ed workers, so as to maximise the equity between workers. We propose a natural two-phase approach consisting in rst designing shifts and then assigning tasks to workers, and we iterate between these two phases to improve solutions. We compare our experimental results with existing literature and show that our approach outperforms previous known results

Imaging of meniscus and ligament injuries of the knee.

Magnetic resonance imaging has now an indisputable role for the diagnosis of meniscus and ligament injuries of the knee. Some technical advances have improved the diagnostic capabilities of magnetic resonance imaging so that diagnoses, which may change the therapeutic approach, such as a partial tear of the anterior cruciate ligament or confirmation of unstable meniscal injuries, are now made easier. This article describes the essential about magnetic resonance imaging technique and pathological results for the menisci, collateral ligaments and damage to the central pivot of the cruciate knee ligaments

From the financial crisis to the economic crisis The impact of the financial trouble of 2007-2008 on the growth of seven advanced countries

The financial crisis started in the United States in 2007 on the subprime mortgage market and, then, gradually spread to all financial markets and strongly impacted growth in the main advanced countries through the years 2008 and 2009. Given its scope and its subsequent uncertainty, we discuss the capacity of macroeconometric models estimated on the past to quantify its various transmission channels. We try to measure the total impact of the crisis on the economy of seven advanced countries and on the euro area as a whole using the macroeconomic multinational model NiGEM. During the years 2008 and 2009, Germany suffered from a particularly strong drop in world trade, which would explain more than a half of the effect of the crisis measured in this way in 2009. The United Kingdom and the United States may especially have been affected by wealth effects and a strong drop in their inner demand. This drop may partly have been due to credit tightening. Japan seems to be the most affected country in 2009: the drop in foreign trade was exacerbated by the appreciation of the yen and investment seems to have strongly over-reacted to the fall in activity. A contrario, the fact that France suffered from a less marked drop in output in 2009 might be explained by an absence of over-reaction in economic behaviours and less sensitivity to the fall in world trade.financial crisis, simulation, macroeconometric model, macro-financial linkages

What medium-term growth rates after the crisis?

The financial crisis originated in the United States in 2007 and, then, spread in all the economies of the world. After a drop in activity of historic magnitude, first signs of recovery were recorded in 2009. However, our study of previous banking crises that have taken place in OECD countries over the last forty years leads one to expect a very gradual return of growth rates to their pre-crisis values, with long-lasting losses for the level of GDP. According to our estimations, average losses observed during past banking crises occurred through a reduction in capital stocks, an increase in unemployment rates and a drop in participation rates. Conversely, past banking crises seemed to have had little impact on total factor productivity. In France, the 1992-1993 crisis, which shares some common features with the current crisis, had also long-lasting negative impacts on the employment and unemployment rates. Employment-rate losses were fairly similar for men and women. Ten years passed before the overall unemployment rate returned to its pre-crisis level. Based on various post-crisis scenarios, we illustrate the mechanical medium-term impact of the current crisis on public finances, whithout any fiscal adjustment after 2012. Even in the scenario of a complete recovery by 2018 of GDP losses recorded in 2008 and 2009, the impact on the public debt would exceed 20 % of GDP ten years after the crisis as a result of declining revenues and increasing interest payments. The impact would be still higher in less favourable scenarios.financial crisis, medium-term growth

The New Version of the Model MZE, Macroeconometric Model for the Eurozone

This paper presents the main improvements carried out to the macroeconometric model MZE since its creation in 2003. We have back-calculated the series over the period 1980-1995, in order to make the model more stable. To our knowledge, this paper is the first application of Kllians (1998) method to estimate coefficients and centered confidence intervals for an operational macroeconometric model. The new coefficients enable to get less inflationary responses to macroeconomic shocks than the previous version of MZE. The study is more nuanced and rigorous thanks to the confidence intervals around the main scenarios. It is thus possible to check the significance of the results at any horizon. At last, the new version of MZE enables to find conventional responses to international shocks, like the inflationary effect of a rise in oil prices or the delayed impact of a depreciation of the euro on the improvement of the trade balance.Macroeconometric modelling, Forecasting, Confidence interval, Bootstrap

Ultrasound of the coracoclavicular ligaments in the acute phase of an acromioclavicular disjonction: Comparison of radiographic, ultrasound and MRI findings.

OBJECTIVES: Acromioclavicular joint injuries are typically diagnosed by clinical and radiographic assessment with the Rockwood classification, which is crucial for treatment planning. The purpose of this study was to describe how the ultrasound findings of acromioclavicular joint injury compare with radiography and MRI findings. METHODS: Forty-seven patients with suspected unilateral acromioclavicular joint injury after acute trauma were enrolled in this prospective study. All patients underwent digital radiography, ultrasound and 3T MRI. A modified Rockwood classification was used to evaluate the coracoclavicular ligaments. The classifications of acromioclavicular joint injuries diagnosed with radiography, ultrasound and MRI were compared. MRI was used as the gold standard. RESULTS: The agreement between the ultrasound and MRI findings was very good, with a correlation coefficient of 0.83 (95 % CI: 0.72-0.90; p < 0.0001). Ultrasound detected coracoclavicular ligament injuries with a sensitivity of 88.9 %, specificity of 90.0 %, positive predictive value of 92.3 % and negative predictive value of 85.7 %. The agreement between the ultrasound and radiography findings was poor, with a correlation coefficient of 0.69 (95 % CI: 0.51-0.82; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Ultrasound is an effective examination for the diagnostic work-up of lesions of the coracoclavicular ligaments in the acute phase of an acromioclavicular injury. KEY POINTS: • Ultrasound is appropriate for acute acromioclavicular trauma due to its accessibility. • Ultrasound contributes to the diagnostic work-up of acute lesions of the coracoclavicular ligaments. • Ultrasound is appropriate in patients likely to benefit from surgical treatment. • Ultrasound could be a supplement to standard radiography in acute acromioclavicular trauma

Imaging of traumatic injury and impingement of anterior knee fat.

Fat is not just used by the body as bulk tissue. In addition to its role in storing energy and regulating hormone action, fat is used in some parts of the body for its mechanical properties. The anatomy of anterior knee fat is more complex than it appears at first sight and is capable of withstanding considerable compressive and shear stress. Specific lesions occur when such mechanical stress exceeds the physiological limits and are yet little known. Superficial fat can be the site of either acute injury by closed degloving called the Morel-Lavallée lesion or chronic injury, when subject to repeat excessive shear forces, due to more complex and less well-defined disruptions that result in pseudo-bursitis. There are three main anterior, intracapsular and extrasynovial fat pads in the knee joint, which are the infrapatellar fat pad (IFP) or Hoffa's fat pad, the quadriceps fat pad and the prefemoral fat pad. The IFP plays an important role as a mechanical shock absorber and guides the patella tendon and even the patella itself during flexion-extension movements. In response to repeated excessive stress, an inflammatory reaction and swelling of the IFP is first observed, followed by a fibrotic reaction with metaplastic transformation into fibrous, cartilaginous or bone tissue. More rarely, the two other deep fat pads (quadriceps and prefemoral) can, if subject to repeated stress, undergo similar restructuring inflammatory reactions with metaplasia resulting in tissue hardening, anterior pain and partial loss of functio