Environmental impacts of the future supply of rare earths for magnet applications

The environmental impacts of rare earth mining have recently caused public concern, because demand for the rare earth elements neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (pr), dysprosium (Dy), and terbium (Tb) is expected to increase strongly as a result of their use in magnets for electric cars and other emerging applications. Therefore, we analyzed the future environmental impacts of producing these rare earth metals per kilogram and for global production in the year 2035 to obtain insights into their relevance and draw conclusions about suitable mitigation measures. We introduced a new stepwise approach that combines future scenarios of metal demand, policy measures, mining sites, and environmental conditions with life cycle assessment data sets. The environmental impacts of 1kg of Nd, Pr, Dy, and Tb will probably decrease by 2035. In contrast, the environmental impacts of the global production of these metals for magnet applications might increase or decrease depending on the development of demand and the environmental conditions of mining and production. Regarding mitigation measures, the attempts included in the Chinese consolidation strategy (improvement of the environmental conditions of mining, prevention of illegal mining) are the most promising to reduce impacts in the categories human toxicity, freshwater ecotoxicity and, in the case of Nd/Pr, also in eutrophication and acidification. For the remaining categories, reducing the increase in demand (e.g., by improving material efficiency) is the most promising measure. Enhancing the environmental performance of foreground processes has larger potential benefits than improving background processes for most impact categories, including human toxicity as the most relevant impact category following normalization. This article met the requirements for a gold‐gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347Fraunhofer‐Gesellschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/50110000318

Ressourcen-Studie aktualisiert. Neue Prognosen für die kommenden 20 Jahre skizzieren den potentiellen Rohstoffbedarf von Schlüssel- und Zukunftstechnologien

Das Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI hat im Auftrag der Deutschen Rohstoffagentur (DERA) eine Studie aus dem Jahre 2009 zum Rohstoffbedarf für Zukunftstechnologien aktualisiert und den Bedarf für das Jahr 2035 abgeschätzt. Im Mittelpunkt standen hierbei die möglichen Nachfrageentwicklungen für Rohstoffe aus rohstoffintensiven und -sensiblen Schlüssel- und Zukunftstechnologien. Von Technologien, die in den nächsten 20 Jahren ein starkes wirtschaftliches Wachstum erleben werden, können außergewöhnliche Impulse auf die Rohstoffnachfrage ausgehen. So beträgt im Fall der Schweren Seltenen Erden der Bedarf für Hochleistungspermanentmagnete im Jahr 2035 möglicherweise des 5,7-fache der Weltproduktion 2015. Durch Substitution (auf Material- und Technologieebene), Ressourceneffizienz und Recycling können diese kritischen Entwicklungen abgemildert werden. Der folgende Beitrag stellt einige Ergebnisse des Projekts Rohstoffe für Zukunftstechnologien 2016 vor

A stepwise approach for Scenario-based Inventory Modelling for Prospective LCA (SIMPL)

Purpose: In prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA), inventory models represent a future state of a production system and therefore contain assumptions about future developments. Scientific quality should be ensured by using foresight methods for handling these future assumptions during inventory modelling. We present a stepwise approach for integrating future scenario development into inventory modelling for pLCA studies. Methods: A transdisciplinary research method was used to develop the SIMPL approach for scenario-based inventory modelling for pLCA. Our interdisciplinary team of LCA and future scenario experts developed a first draft of the approach. Afterwards, 112 LCA practitioners tested the approach on prospective case studies in group work projects in three courses on pLCA. Lessons learned from application difficulties, misunderstandings and feedback were used to adapt the approach after each course. After the third course, reflection, discussion and in-depth application to case studies were used to solve the remaining problems of the approach. Ongoing courses and this article are intended to bring the approach into a broader application. Results and discussion: The SIMPL approach comprises adaptations and additions to the LCA goal and scope phase necessary for prospective inventory modelling, particularly the prospective definition of scope items in reference to a time horizon. Moreover, three iterative steps for combined inventory modelling and scenario development are incorporated into the inventory phase. Step A covers the identification of relevant inventory parameters and key factors, as well as their interrelations. In\ua0step B, future assumptions are made, by either adopting them from existing scenarios or deriving them from the available information, in particular by integrating expert and stakeholder knowledge. Step C addresses the combination of assumptions into consistent scenarios using cross-consistency assessment and distinctness-based selection. Several iterations of steps A–C deliver the final inventory models. Conclusion: The presented approach enables pLCA practitioners to systematically integrate future scenario development into inventory modelling. It helps organize possible future developments of a technology, product or service system, also with regard to future developments in the social, economic and technical environment of the technology. Its application helps to overcome implicit bias and ensures that the resulting assessments are consistent, transparently documented and useful for drawing practically relevant conclusions. The approach is also readily applicable by LCA practitioners and covers all steps of prospective inventory modelling