Line versus Flux Statistics -- Considerations for the Low Redshift Lyman-alpha Forest

The flux/transmission power spectrum has become a popular statistical tool in studies of the high redshift ($z > 2$) Lyman-alpha forest. At low redshifts, where the forest has thinned out into a series of well-isolated absorption lines, the motivation for flux statistics is less obvious. Here, we study the relative merits of flux versus line correlations, and derive a simple condition under which one is favored over the other on purely statistical grounds. Systematic errors probably play an important role in this discussion, and they are outlined as well.Comment: 6 pages, to appear in "The IGM/Galaxy Connection: The Distribution of Baryons at z=0", eds. J. L. Rosenberg and M. E. Putma

The Stepwise Reduction of Multiyear Sea Ice Area in the Arctic Ocean Since 1980

The loss of multiyear sea ice (MYI) in the Arctic Ocean is a significant change that affects all facets of the Arctic environment. Using a Lagrangian ice age product, we examine MYI loss and quantify the annual MYI area budget from 1980 to 2021 as the balance of export, melt, and replenishment. Overall, MYI area declined at 72,500 km2/yr; however, a majority of the loss occurred during two stepwise reductions that interrupt an otherwise balanced budget and resulted in the northward contraction of the MYI pack. First, in 1989, a change in atmospheric forcing led to a +56% anomaly in MYI export through Fram Strait. The second occurred from 2006 to 2008 with anomalously high melt (+25%) and export (+23%) coupled with low replenishment (−8%). In terms of trends, melt has increased since 1989, particularly in the Beaufort Sea, export has decreased since 2008 due to reduced MYI coverage north of Fram Strait, and replenishment has increased over the full time series due to a negative feedback that promotes seasonal ice survival at higher latitudes exposed by MYI loss. However, retention of older MYI has significantly declined, transitioning the MYI pack toward younger MYI that is less resilient than previously anticipated and could soon elicit another stepwise reduction. We speculate that future MYI loss will be driven by increased melt and reduced replenishment, both of which are enhanced with continued warming and will one day render the Arctic Ocean free of MYI, a change that will coincide with a seasonally ice‐free Arctic Ocean

The writing on the wall: the concealed communities of the East Yorkshire horselads

This paper examines the graffiti found within late nineteenth and early-twentieth century farm buildings in the Wolds of East Yorkshire. It suggests that the graffiti were created by a group of young men at the bottom of the social hierarchy - the horselads – and was one of the ways in which they constructed a distinctive sense of communal identity, at a particular stage in their lives. Whilst it tells us much about changing agricultural regimes and social structures, it also informs us about experiences and attitudes often hidden from official histories and biographies. In this way, the graffiti are argued to inform our understanding, not only of a concealed community, but also about their hidden histor

Self versus Environment Motion in Postural Control

To stabilize our position in space we use visual information as well as non-visual physical motion cues. However, visual cues can be ambiguous: visually perceived motion may be caused by self-movement, movement of the environment, or both. The nervous system must combine the ambiguous visual cues with noisy physical motion cues to resolve this ambiguity and control our body posture. Here we have developed a Bayesian model that formalizes how the nervous system could solve this problem. In this model, the nervous system combines the sensory cues to estimate the movement of the body. We analytically demonstrate that, as long as visual stimulation is fast in comparison to the uncertainty in our perception of body movement, the optimal strategy is to weight visually perceived movement velocities proportional to a power law. We find that this model accounts for the nonlinear influence of experimentally induced visual motion on human postural behavior both in our data and in previously published results

Combining Path Integration and Remembered Landmarks When Navigating without Vision

This study investigated the interaction between remembered landmark and path integration strategies for estimating current location when walking in an environment without vision. We asked whether observers navigating without vision only rely on path integration information to judge their location, or whether remembered landmarks also influence judgments. Participants estimated their location in a hallway after viewing a target (remembered landmark cue) and then walking blindfolded to the same or a conflicting location (path integration cue). We found that participants averaged remembered landmark and path integration information when they judged that both sources provided congruent information about location, which resulted in more precise estimates compared to estimates made with only path integration. In conclusion, humans integrate remembered landmarks and path integration in a gated fashion, dependent on the congruency of the information. Humans can flexibly combine information about remembered landmarks with path integration cues while navigating without visual information.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant T32 HD007151)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant T32 EY07133)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant F32EY019622)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant EY02857)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant EY017835-01)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant EY015616-03)United States. Department of Education (H133A011903

Antimigraine medication use and associated health care costs in employed patients

Migraine is under diagnosed and suboptimally treated in the majority of patients, and also associated with decreased productivity in employees. The objective of this retrospective study is to assess the antimigraine medication use and associated resource utilization in employed patients. Patients with primary diagnosis of migraine or receiving antimigraine prescription drugs were identified from an employer-sponsored health insurance plan in 2010. Medical utilization and health care costs were determined for the year of 2010. Generalized linear regression was applied to evaluate the association between health care costs and the use of antimigraine medications by controlling covariates. Of 465 patients meeting the study criteria, nearly 30% that had migraine diagnosis were prescribed antimigraine medications, and 20% that had migraine diagnosis were not prescribed antimigraine medications. The remaining 50% were prescribed antimigraine medications but did not have migraine diagnosis. Patients with antimigraine medication prescriptions showed lower frequency of emergency department visits than those without antimigraine medication prescriptions. Regression models indicated an increase in migraine-related health care costs by 86% but decreases in all-cause medical costs and total health care costs by 42 and 26%, respectively, in the antimigraine medication use group after adjusting for covariates. Employed patients experienced inadequate pharmacotherapy for migraine treatment. After controlling for covariates, antimigraine prescription drug use was associated with lower total medical utilization and health care costs. Further studies should investigate patient self-reported care and needs to manage headache and develop effective intervention to improve patient quality of life and productivity

Continuous Evolution of Statistical Estimators for Optimal Decision-Making

In many everyday situations, humans must make precise decisions in the presence of uncertain sensory information. For example, when asked to combine information from multiple sources we often assign greater weight to the more reliable information. It has been proposed that statistical-optimality often observed in human perception and decision-making requires that humans have access to the uncertainty of both their senses and their decisions. However, the mechanisms underlying the processes of uncertainty estimation remain largely unexplored. In this paper we introduce a novel visual tracking experiment that requires subjects to continuously report their evolving perception of the mean and uncertainty of noisy visual cues over time. We show that subjects accumulate sensory information over the course of a trial to form a continuous estimate of the mean, hindered only by natural kinematic constraints (sensorimotor latency etc.). Furthermore, subjects have access to a measure of their continuous objective uncertainty, rapidly acquired from sensory information available within a trial, but limited by natural kinematic constraints and a conservative margin for error. Our results provide the first direct evidence of the continuous mean and uncertainty estimation mechanisms in humans that may underlie optimal decision making

Compensation for Changing Motor Uncertainty

When movement outcome differs consistently from the intended movement, errors are used to correct subsequent movements (e.g., adaptation to displacing prisms or force fields) by updating an internal model of motor and/or sensory systems. Here, we examine changes to an internal model of the motor system under changes in the variance structure of movement errors lacking an overall bias. We introduced a horizontal visuomotor perturbation to change the statistical distribution of movement errors anisotropically, while monetary gains/losses were awarded based on movement outcomes. We derive predictions for simulated movement planners, each differing in its internal model of the motor system. We find that humans optimally respond to the overall change in error magnitude, but ignore the anisotropy of the error distribution. Through comparison with simulated movement planners, we found that aimpoints corresponded quantitatively to an ideal movement planner that updates a strictly isotropic (circular) internal model of the error distribution. Aimpoints were planned in a manner that ignored the direction-dependence of error magnitudes, despite the continuous availability of unambiguous information regarding the anisotropic distribution of actual motor errors

Cue Integration in Categorical Tasks: Insights from Audio-Visual Speech Perception

Previous cue integration studies have examined continuous perceptual dimensions (e.g., size) and have shown that human cue integration is well described by a normative model in which cues are weighted in proportion to their sensory reliability, as estimated from single-cue performance. However, this normative model may not be applicable to categorical perceptual dimensions (e.g., phonemes). In tasks defined over categorical perceptual dimensions, optimal cue weights should depend not only on the sensory variance affecting the perception of each cue but also on the environmental variance inherent in each task-relevant category. Here, we present a computational and experimental investigation of cue integration in a categorical audio-visual (articulatory) speech perception task. Our results show that human performance during audio-visual phonemic labeling is qualitatively consistent with the behavior of a Bayes-optimal observer. Specifically, we show that the participants in our task are sensitive, on a trial-by-trial basis, to the sensory uncertainty associated with the auditory and visual cues, during phonemic categorization. In addition, we show that while sensory uncertainty is a significant factor in determining cue weights, it is not the only one and participants' performance is consistent with an optimal model in which environmental, within category variability also plays a role in determining cue weights. Furthermore, we show that in our task, the sensory variability affecting the visual modality during cue-combination is not well estimated from single-cue performance, but can be estimated from multi-cue performance. The findings and computational principles described here represent a principled first step towards characterizing the mechanisms underlying human cue integration in categorical tasks