AN EXAMINATION OF ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT AT LANDSCAPE SCALE AND THE MANAGEMENT PLAN

NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Decision Support for Natural Disasters and Intentional Threats to Water Security -- APR 22-25, 2007 -- Dubrovnik, CROATIAWOS: 000271849100017This study primarily aimed to put forward some feasible measures over Gediz Delta derived from both our previous research on wetland functions-stressors context and the official management plan so that they could be utilized by decision-makers for the long term benefits of the delta. What has been suggested here is to make a comparative analysis between outcomes of the research on Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) and the newly prepared management plan to strengthen and encourage implementation of the plan. An ERA was carried out in the research based on 15 landscape types constituting the delta as coastal wetlands' system. Each landscape has been qualified with its wetland functions or values. Almost all landscapes have generally been ranked high in total wetland functions. However, some parts of landscapes under the impacts of natural and cultural stressors including land uses in varied degrees have been severely suffered. Management of coastal wetlands at landscape level within the delta necessitates adoption of some scientific and concrete measures into the domain of either planning or management pursuits that is able to conserve or enhance natural processes and ecological stability.NATO Sci Programm

A regional scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations

Recent developments in Environmental Flow (E-flow) frameworks advocate holistic, regional scale, probabilistic E-flow assessments that consider flow and non-flow drivers of change in socio-ecological context as best practice. Regional Scale ecological risk assessments of multiple sources, stressors and diverse ecosystems that address multiple social and ecological endpoints, have been undertaken internationally at different spatial scales using the relative-risk model since the mid 1990's. With the recent incorporation of Bayesian belief networks into the relative-risk model, a robust regional scale ecological risk assessment approach is available that can contribute to achieving the best practice recommendations of E-flow frameworks. PROBFLO is a regional scale, holistic E-flow assessment method that incorporates the relative-risk model and Bayesian belief networks (BN-RRM) into a transparent probabilistic modelling tool that addresses uncertainty explicitly. PROBFLO has been developed to holistically evaluate the socio-ecological consequences of historical, current and future altered flows in the context of non-flow drivers and generate E-flow requirements on regional scales spatial scales. The approach has been implemented in two regional scale case studies in Africa where its flexibility and functionality has been demonstrated. In both case studies the evidence based outcomes facilitated informed environmental management decision making, in the context of social and ecological aspirations. This paper presents the PROBFLO approach as applied to the Senqu River catchment in Lesotho and further developments and application in the Mara River catchment in Kenya and Tanzania. The ten BN-RRM procedural steps incorporated in PROBFLO are demonstrated with examples from both case studies. Outcomes allowed stakeholders to consider sustainable social and ecological E-flow trade-offs between social and ecological endpoints. PROBFLO can be incorporated into adaptive management processes and contribute to the sustainable management of the use and protection of water resources