A semiparametric method for the analysis of outcomes during a gap in HIV care under incomplete outcome ascertainment

Objectives: Estimation of the cascade of HIV care is essential for evaluating care and treatment programs, informing policy makers and assessing targets such as 90-90-90. A challenge to estimating the cascade based on electronic health record concerns patients "churning" in and out of care. Correctly estimating this dynamic phenomenon in resource-limited settings, such as those found in sub-Saharan Africa, is challenging because of the significant death under-reporting. An approach to partially recover information on the unobserved deaths is a double-sampling design, where a small subset of individuals with a missed clinic visit is intensively outreached in the community to actively ascertain their vital status. This approach has been adopted in several programs within the East Africa regional IeDEA consortium, the context of our motivating study. The objective of this paper is to propose a semiparametric method for the analysis of competing risks data with incomplete outcome ascertainment. Methods: Based on data from double-sampling designs, we propose a semiparametric inverse probability weighted estimator of key outcomes during a gap in care, which are crucial pieces of the care cascade puzzle. Results: Simulation studies suggest that the proposed estimators provide valid estimates in settings with incomplete outcome ascertainment under a set of realistic assumptions. These studies also illustrate that a naïve complete-case analysis can provide seriously biased estimates. The methodology is applied to electronic health record data from the East Africa IeDEA Consortium to estimate death and return to care during a gap in care. Conclusions: The proposed methodology provides a robust approach for valid inferences about return to care and death during a gap in care, in settings with death under-reporting. Ultimately, the resulting estimates will have significant consequences on program construction, resource allocation, policy and decision making at the highest levels

Do clinical decision-support reminders for medical providers improve isoniazid preventative therapy prescription rates among HIV-positive adults? Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: This document describes a research protocol for a study designed to estimate the impact of implementing a reminder system for medical providers on the use of isoniazid preventative therapy (IPT) for adults living with HIV in western Kenya. People living with HIV have a 5% to 10% annual risk of developing active tuberculosis (TB) once infected with TB bacilli, compared to a 5% lifetime risk in HIV-negative people with latent TB infection. Moreover, people living with HIV have a 20-fold higher risk of dying from TB. A growing body of literature suggests that IPT reduces overall TB incidence and is therefore of considerable benefit to patients and the larger community. However, in 2009, of the estimated 33 million people living with HIV, only 1.7 million (5%) were screened for TB, and about 85,000 (0.2%) were offered IPT. METHODS/DESIGN: This study will examine the use of clinical decision-support reminders to improve rates of initiation of preventative treatment in a TB/HIV co-morbid population living in a TB endemic area. This will be a pragmatic, parallel-group, cluster-randomized superiority trial with a 1:1 allocation to treatment ratio. For the trial, 20 public medical facilities that use clinical summary sheets generated from an electronic medical records system will participate as clusters. All HIV-positive adult patients who complete an initial encounter at a study cluster and at least one return encounter during the study period will be included in the study cohort. The primary endpoint will be IPT prescription at 3 months post the initial encounter. We will conduct both individual-level and cluster-level analyses. Due to the nature of the intervention, the trial will not be blinded. This study will contribute to the growing evidence base for the use of electronic health interventions in low-resource settings to promote high-quality clinical care, health system optimization and positive patient outcomes. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01934309, registered 29 August 2013

Provider alerts and reminders to improve tuberculosis care among people living with HIV in Kenya: TB Tech formative report

People living with HIV (PLHIV) have a 20-fold higher risk of dying from tuberculosis (TB) than the general population. Reducing TB morbidity and mortality among PLHIV requires identifying those with active TB and treating them, as well as preventing new TB infections among those not infected. WHO recommends screening all HIV-infected patients for symptoms of active TB infection, testing those who show symptoms, treating those with positive TB tests, and providing isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) for those who are either asymptomatic or whose TB test results are negative. WHO classifies Kenya among the “high burden” countries for TB and notes high rates of HIV-TB co-infection. Screening and testing of HIV-infected patients for TB is the focus of this report. The TB Tech study, under USAID’s HIVCore project led by the Population Council was initiated. The study team conducted research to address: preparedness of Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) facilities and providers to screen for TB symptoms and provide IPT for symptom-negative HIV-infected patients; preparedness of AMPATH Medical Record System (AMRS) to capture and report critical indicators of IPT/TB service performance; preparedness of AMRS and other data sources to capture and report critical indicators of reminder-system performance

Alternative antiretroviral monitoring strategies for HIV-infected patients in east Africa: opportunities to save more lives?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Updated World Health Organization guidelines have amplified debate about how resource constraints should impact monitoring strategies for HIV-infected persons on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). We estimated the incremental benefit and cost effectiveness of alternative monitoring strategies for east Africans with known HIV infection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a validated HIV computer simulation based on resource-limited data (USAID and AMPATH) and circumstances (east Africa), we compared alternative monitoring strategies for HIV-infected persons newly started on cART. We evaluated clinical, immunologic and virologic monitoring strategies, including combinations and conditional logic (e.g., only perform virologic testing if immunologic testing is positive). We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) in units of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), using a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon. Costs were measured in 2008 US dollars, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. We compared the ICER of monitoring strategies with those of other resource-constrained decisions, in particular earlier cART initiation (at CD4 counts of 350 cells/mm³rather than 200 cells/mm³).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Monitoring strategies employing routine CD4 testing without virologic testing never maximized health benefits, regardless of budget or societal willingness to pay for additional health benefits. Monitoring strategies employing virologic testing conditional upon particular CD4 results delivered the most benefit at willingness-to-pay levels similar to the cost of earlier cART initiation (approximately $2600/QALY). Monitoring strategies employing routine virologic testing alone only maximized health benefits at willingness-to-pay levels (>$4400/QALY) that greatly exceeded the ICER of earlier cART initiation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>CD4 testing alone never maximized health benefits regardless of resource limitations. Programmes routinely performing virologic testing but deferring cART initiation may increase health benefits by reallocating monitoring resources towards earlier cART initiation.</p

Do clinical decision-support reminders for medical providers improve isoniazid prescription rates among HIV-positive adults?

People living with HIV (PLHIV) are at increased risk of developing active tuberculosis (TB) and dying from TB. Isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) can prevent this, but only a small fraction of HIV-positive individuals are on IPT. Previous research suggests that clinical decision support systems (CDSS)—electronic systems that use existing patient data and established algorithms to generate alerts, reminders, or recommendations intended to aid clinical decision-making—have the potential to improve provider adherence to diagnostic and treatment guidelines. Researchers conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial of a new CDSS intervention for TB screening, prevention, and treatment in a high HIV and TB prevalence setting to evaluate the effects of implementing a reminder system for medical providers to increase IPT for PLHIV. Specifically, the research objective was to determine if the intervention increases IPT prescription rates and decreases time from initial encounter to IPT initiation. The study was conducted as part of the HIVCore project, funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development and led by the Population Council

Frequency and impact of suboptimal immune recovery on first-line antiretroviral therapy within the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS in East Africa

OBJECTIVE: To describe patterns of suboptimal immune recovery (SO-IR) and associated HIV-related-illnesses during the first 5 years following first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation across seven ART sites in East Africa. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of data from seven ART clinical sites (three Uganda, two Kenya and two Tanzania). METHODS: SO-IR was described by proportions of ART-treated adults with CD4 cell counts less than 200, less than 350 and less than 500 cells/μl. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis techniques were used to assess predictors of SO-IR, and incident rates of HIV-related illnesses at CD4 cell counts less than 200, 200-350, 351-499, and >500 cells/μl, respectively. RESULTS: Overall 80 843 adults initiated non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based first-line ART; 65% were women and median CD4 cell count was 126 [interquartile range (IQR), 52-202] cells/μl. Cumulative probability of SO-IR <200 cells/μl, <350 cells/μl and <500 cells/μl, after 5 years, was 11, 38 and 63%, respectively. Incidence of HIV-related illnesses was higher among those with CD4 cell counts less than 200 and 200-350 cells/μl, than those who achieved CD4 counts above these thresholds. The most common events, at CD4 < 200 cells/μl, were pulmonary tuberculosis [incident rate 15.98 (15.47-16.51)/100 person-years at risk (PYAR), oral candidiasis [incident rate 12.5 (12.03-12.94)] and herpes zoster [incident rate 6.30 (5.99-6.64)] events/100 PYAR. With attainment of a CD4 cell count level 200-350 cells/μl, there was a substantial reduction in events/100 PYAR - by 91% to 1.45 (1.29-1.63) for TB, by 94% to 0.75 (0.64-0.89) for oral candidiasis, by 84% to 0.99 (0.86-1.14) for Herpes Zoster, and by 78% to 1.22 (1.07-1.39) for chronic diarrhea. The incidence of all events decreased further with CD4 counts above these thresholds. CONCLUSION: Around 40% of adults initiated on ART have suboptimal immune recovery with CD4 counts <350 cells/μl after five years. Such patients will require closer monitoring for both HIV-related and non-HIV-related clinical events

Declining Tuberculosis Incidence Among People Receiving HIV Care and Treatment Services in East Africa, 2007–2012

Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the risk of Tuberculosis (TB) among people living with HIV (PLWH). With ART scale-up in sub-Saharan Africa over the past decade, incidence of TB among PLWH engaged in HIV care is predicted to decline. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of routine clinical data from 168,330 PLWH receiving care at 35 facilities in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda during 2003–2012, participating in the East African region of the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS. Temporal trends in facility-based annual TB incidence rates (per 100,000 person years) among PLWH and country-specific standardized TB incidence ratios using annual population-level TB incidence data from the World Health Organization were computed between 2007 and 2012. We examined patient-level and facility-level factors associated with incident TB using multivariable Cox models. Results: Overall, TB incidence rates among PLWH in care declined 5-fold between 2007 and 2012 from 5960 to 985 per 100,000 person years [P = 0.0003] (Kenya: 7552 to 1115 [P = 0.0007]; Tanzania: 7153 to 635 [P = 0.0025]; Uganda: 3204 to 242 [P = 0.018]). Standardized TB incidence ratios significantly decreased in the 3 countries, indicating a narrowing gap between incidence rates among PLWH and the general population. We observed lower hazards of incident TB among PLWH on ART and/or isoniazid preventive therapy and receiving care in facilities offering TB treatment onsite. Conclusions: Annual TB incidence rates among PLWH significantly declined during ART scale-up but remained higher than the general population. Increasing access to ART and isoniazid preventive therapy and co-location of HIV and TB treatment may further reduce TB incidence among PLWH

Increased prevalence of pregnancy and comparative risk of program attrition among individuals starting HIV treatment in East Africa

Background The World Health Organization now recommends initiating all pregnant women on life-long antiretroviral therapy (ART), yet there is limited information about the characteristics and program outcomes of pregnant women already on ART in Africa. Our hypothesis was that pregnant women comprised an increasing proportion of those starting ART, and that sub-groups of these women were at higher risk for program attrition. Methods and findings We used the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS- East Africa (IeDEA-EA) to conduct a retrospective cohort study including HIV care and treatment programs in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. The cohort consecutively included HIV-infected individuals 13 years or older starting ART 2004–2014. We examined trends over time in the proportion pregnant, their characteristics and program attrition rates compared to others initiating and already receiving ART. 156,474 HIV-infected individuals (67.0% women) started ART. The proportion of individuals starting ART who were pregnant women rose from 5.3% in 2004 to 12.2% in 2014. Mean CD4 cell counts at ART initiation, weighted for annual program size, increased from 2004 to 2014, led by non-pregnant women (annual increase 20 cells/mm3) and men (17 cells/mm3 annually), with lower rates of change in pregnant women (10 cells/mm3 per year) (p<0.0001). There was no significant difference in the cumulative incidence of program attrition at 6 months among pregnant women starting ART and non-pregnant women. However, healthy pregnant women starting ART (WHO stage 1/2) had a higher rate of attrition rate (9.6%), compared with healthy non-pregnant women (6.5%); in contrast among women with WHO stage 3/4 disease, pregnant women had lower attrition (8.4%) than non-pregnant women (14.4%). Among women who initiated ART when healthy and remained in care for six months, subsequent six-month attrition was slightly higher among pregnant women at ART start (3.5%) compared to those who were not pregnant (2.4%), (absolute difference 1.1%, 95% CI 0.7%-1.5%). Conclusions Pregnant women comprise an increasing proportion of those initiating ART in Africa, and pregnant women starting ART while healthy are at higher risk for program attrition than non-pregnant women. As ART programs further expand access to healthier pregnant women, further studies are needed to better understand the drivers of loss among this high risk group of women to optimize retention

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB services at ART programmes in low- and middle-income countries: a multi-cohort survey.

INTRODUCTION COVID-19 stretched healthcare systems to their limits, particularly in settings with a pre-existing high burden of infectious diseases, including HIV and tuberculosis (TB). We studied the impact of COVID-19 on TB services at antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinics in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS We surveyed ART clinics providing TB services in the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium in Africa and the Asia-Pacific until July 2021 (TB diagnoses until the end of 2021). We collected site-level data using standardized questionnaires. RESULTS Of 46 participating ART clinics, 32 (70%) were in Africa and 14 (30%) in the Asia-Pacific; 52% provided tertiary care. Most clinics (85%) reported disrupted routine HIV care services during the pandemic, both in Africa (84%) and the Asia-Pacific (86%). The most frequently reported impacts were on staff (52%) and resource shortages (37%; protective clothing, face masks and disinfectants). Restrictions in TB health services were observed in 12 clinics (26%), mainly reduced access to TB diagnosis and postponed follow-up visits (6/12, 50% each), and restrictions in TB laboratory services (22%). Restrictions of TB services were addressed by dispensing TB drugs for longer periods than usual (7/12, 58%), providing telehealth services (3/12, 25%) and with changes in directly observed therapy (DOT) (e.g. virtual DOT, 3/12). The number of TB diagnoses at participating clinics decreased by 21% in 2020 compared to 2019; the decline was more pronounced in tertiary than primary/secondary clinics (24% vs. 12%) and in sites from the Asia-Pacific compared to Africa (46% vs. 14%). In 2021, TB diagnoses continued to decline in Africa (-8%) but not in the Asia-Pacific (+62%) compared to 2020. During the pandemic, new infection control measures were introduced or intensified at the clinics, including wearing face masks, hand sanitation and patient triage. CONCLUSIONS The COVID-19 pandemic led to staff shortages, reduced access to TB care and delays in follow-up visits for people with TB across IeDEA sites in Africa and the Asia-Pacific. Increased efforts are needed to restore and secure ongoing access to essential TB services in these contexts

Assessing the impact of a primary care electronic medical record system in three Kenyan rural health centers

Objective: Efficient, effective health care requires rapid availability of patient information. We designed, implemented, and assessed the impact of a primary care electronic medical record (EMR) in three rural Kenyan health centers. Method: Local clinicians identified data required for primary care and public health reporting. We designed paper encounter forms to capture these data in adult medicine, pediatric, and antenatal clinics. Encounter form data were hand-entered into a new primary care module in an existing EMR serving onsite clinics serving patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Before subsequent visits, Summary Reports were printed containing selected patient data with reminders for needed HIV care. We assessed effects on patient flow and provider work with time-motion studies before implementation and two years later, and we surveyed providers' satisfaction with the EMR. Results: Between September 2008 and December 2011, 72 635 primary care patients were registered and 114 480 encounter forms were completed. During 2011, 32 193 unique patients visited primary care clinics, and encounter forms were completed for all visits. Of 1031 (3.2%) who were HIV-infected, 85% received HIV care. Patient clinic time increased from 37 to 81 min/visit after EMR implementation in one health center and 56 to 106 min/visit in the other. However, outpatient visits to both health centers increased by 85%. Three-quarters of increased time was spent waiting. Despite nearly doubling visits, there was no change in clinical officers' work patterns, but the nurses' and the clerks' patient care time decreased after EMR implementation. Providers were generally satisfied with the EMR but desired additional training. Conclusions: We successfully implemented a primary care EMR in three rural Kenyan health centers. Patient waiting time was dramatically lengthened while the nurses' and the clerks' patient care time decreased. Long-term use of EMRs in such settings will require changes in culture and workflow