Phylogenetic analysis accounting for age-dependent death and sampling with applications to epidemics

The reconstruction of phylogenetic trees based on viral genetic sequence data sequentially sampled from an epidemic provides estimates of the past transmission dynamics, by fitting epidemiological models to these trees. To our knowledge, none of the epidemiological models currently used in phylogenetics can account for recovery rates and sampling rates dependent on the time elapsed since transmission. Here we introduce an epidemiological model where infectives leave the epidemic, either by recovery or sampling, after some random time which may follow an arbitrary distribution. We derive an expression for the likelihood of the phylogenetic tree of sampled infectives under our general epidemiological model. The analytic concept developed in this paper will facilitate inference of past epidemiological dynamics and provide an analytical framework for performing very efficient simulations of phylogenetic trees under our model. The main idea of our analytic study is that the non-Markovian epidemiological model giving rise to phylogenetic trees growing vertically as time goes by, can be represented by a Markovian "coalescent point process" growing horizontally by the sequential addition of pairs of coalescence and sampling times. As examples, we discuss two special cases of our general model, namely an application to influenza and an application to HIV. Though phrased in epidemiological terms, our framework can also be used for instance to fit macroevolutionary models to phylogenies of extant and extinct species, accounting for general species lifetime distributions.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figure

The relative significance of carbonic acid and ammonia elimination in the acid intoxications of pregnancy

This item was digitized by the Internet Archive. Thesis (M.A.)--Boston Universityhttps://archive.org/details/relativesignific00ban

‘I am doing fine only because I have not told anyone’:the necessity of concealment in the lives of people living with HIV in India

In HIV prevention and care programmes, disclosure of status by HIV-positive individuals is generally encouraged to contain the infection and provide adequate support to the person concerned. Lack of disclosure is generally framed as a barrier to preventive behaviours and accessing support. The assumption that disclosure is beneficial is also reflected in studies that aim to identify determinants of disclosure and recommend individual-level measures to promote disclosure. However, in contexts where HIV infection is stigmatised and there is fear of rejection and discrimination among those living with HIV, concealment of status becomes a way to try and regain as much as possible the life that was disrupted by the discovery of HIV infection. In this study of HIV-positive women and children in India, concealment was considered essential by individuals and families of those living with HIV to re-establish and maintain their normal lives in an environment where stigma and discrimination were prevalent. This paper describes why women and care givers of children felt the need to conceal HIV status, the various ways in which people tried to do so and the implications for treatment of people living with HIV. We found that while women were generally willing to disclose their status to their husband or partner, they were very keen to conceal their status from all others, including family members. Parents and carers with an HIV-positive child were not willing to disclose this status to the child or to others. Understanding the different rationales for concealment would help policy makers and programme managers to develop more appropriate care management strategies and train care providers to assist clients in accessing care and support without disrupting their lives

Анализ ответственности за правонарушения в области техносферной безопасности

Проводится анализ нормативно-правовых актов Российской Федерации в области ответственности предприятий за нарушения техносферной безопасности. Выявлена общая сущность и отличительные характеристики видов ответственности по основным направлениям техносферной безопасности. Обобщается и систематизируется виды ответственности и меры наказания в трех областях техносферной безопасности: охрана окружающей среды, охрана труда, промышленная безопасность. The analysis of regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation in the area of responsibility of enterprises for technospheric security breach. A general essence and the especial characteristics of species in mainstream technospheric security responsibility. Summarized and systematized responsibilities and penalties in three areas technospheric security: the environment, health and safety, industrial safety