Spatial patterns of landslide dimension: A tool for magnitude mapping

AbstractThe magnitude of mass movements, which may be expressed by their dimension in terms of area or volume, is an important component of intensity together with velocity. In the case of slow-moving deep-seated landslides, the expected magnitude is the prevalent parameter for defining intensity when assessed as a spatially distributed variable in a given area. In particular, the frequency–volume statistics of past landslides may be used to understand and predict the magnitude of new landslides and reactivations. In this paper we study the spatial properties of volume frequency distributions in the Arno river basin (Central Italy, about 9100km2). The overall landslide inventory taken into account (around 27,500 events) shows a power-law scaling of volumes for values greater than a cutoff value of about 2×104m3. We explore the variability of the power-law exponent in the geographic space by setting up local subsets of the inventory based on neighbourhoods with radii between 5 and 50km. We found that the power-law exponent α varies according to geographic position and that the exponent itself can be treated as a random space variable with autocorrelation properties both at local and regional scale. We use this finding to devise a simple method to map the magnitude frequency distribution in space and to create maps of exceeding probability of landslide volume for risk analysis. We also study the causes of spatial variation of α by analysing the dependence of power-law properties on geological and geomorphological factors, and we find that structural settings and valley density exert a strong influence on mass movement dimensions

Comparazione di metodi per l'elaborazione di mappe di vulnerabilità degli acquiferi

Lo scopo di questa tesi di dottorato è la comparazione di metodi per redarre mappe della vulnerabilità degli acquiferi all’inquinamento. Sono state redatte le mappe di vulnerabilità dell’acquifero della conoide del Reno utilizzando i metodi parametrici SINTACS (Civita e De Maio, 1997) e DRASTIC (Aller et al., 1987). E' stato elaborato un modello tridimensionale del flusso tramite l'utilizzo del software di modellistica numerica FEFLOW. I risultati ottenuti sono stati confrontati con le mappe derivanti dall'appllicazione dei PCSM. E’ stato, inoltre, approfondito lo sviluppo di un modello inverso, che, partendo dalla distruzione del carico piezometrico, fornisce la distribuzione della conducibilità idraulica dell’acquifero.La conoscenza di questo parametro è, infatti, il punto di partenza per lo sviluppo di un nuovo metodo per la definizione della vulnerabilità basato sulla caratterizzazione dell'area di acquifero potenzialmente inquinabile rispetto ad uno sversamento in superficie di un inquinante.L’indice di vulnerabilità viene definito sulla lunghezza del cammino che un inquinante percorrere nell’arco di un anno

landslide susceptibility of the prato pistoia lucca provinces tuscany italy

ABSTRACTWe mapped landslide susceptibility in the provinces of Lucca, Pistoia and Prato (central Italy), a 3103 km2 territory that approximately corresponds to the portion of Tuscany principally affected by landslides. We used a methodology based on a treebagger random forest. The input parameters used for the susceptibility assessment are curvature, flow accumulation, topographic wetness index, elevation, profile curvature, planar curvature, slope gradient, aspect, land use and lithology. The map was validated providing satisfactory results (AUC = 0.84). The map classifies the study area into four susceptibility classes that identify areas with different probabilities of being affected by landslides. The Main Map represents a useful instrument to assist land planning, development of mitigation measures and landslide risk management. Moreover, it could be used in further research addressing quantitative hazard and risk assessment