Hong Kong, The United Nations International Crime Victim Survey: Final Report of the 2006 Hong Kong UNICVS

Final Report of the 2006 Hong Kong UNICVSpublished_or_final_versio

Using Markov Models and Statistics to Learn, Extract, Fuse, and Detect Patterns in Raw Data

Many systems are partially stochastic in nature. We have derived data driven approaches for extracting stochastic state machines (Markov models) directly from observed data. This chapter provides an overview of our approach with numerous practical applications. We have used this approach for inferring shipping patterns, exploiting computer system side-channel information, and detecting botnet activities. For contrast, we include a related data-driven statistical inferencing approach that detects and localizes radiation sources.Comment: Accepted by 2017 International Symposium on Sensor Networks, Systems and Securit

BR-squared: a practical solution to the winner’s curse in genome-wide scans

The detrimental effects of the winner’s curse, including overestimation of the genetic effects of associated variants and underestimation of sufficient sample sizes for replication studies are well-recognized in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). These effects can be expected to worsen as the field moves from GWAS into whole genome sequencing. To date, few studies have reported statistical adjustments to the naive estimates, due to the lack of suitable statistical methods and computational tools. We have developed an efficient genome-wide non-parametric method that explicitly accounts for the threshold, ranking, and allele frequency effects in whole genome scans. Here, we implement the method to provide bias-reduced estimates via bootstrap re-sampling (BR-squared) for association studies of both disease status and quantitative traits, and we report the results of applying BR-squared to GWAS of psoriasis and HbA1c. We observed over 50% reduction in the genetic effect size estimation for many associated SNPs. This translates into a greater than fourfold increase in sample size requirements for successful replication studies, which in part explains some of the apparent failures in replicating the original signals. Our analysis suggests that adjusting for the winner’s curse is critical for interpreting findings from whole genome scans and planning replication and meta-GWAS studies, as well as in attempts to translate findings into the clinical setting

Significant Impact of Sequence Variations in the Nucleoprotein on CD8 T Cell-Mediated Cross-Protection against Influenza A Virus Infections

Background: Memory CD8 T cells to influenza A viruses are widely detectable in healthy human subjects and broadly cross-reactive for serologically distinct influenza A virus subtypes. However, it is not clear to what extent such pre-existing cellular immunity can provide cross-subtype protection against novel emerging influenza A viruses. Methodology/Principal: Findings We show in the mouse model that naturally occurring sequence variations of the conserved nucleoprotein of the virus significantly impact cross-protection against lethal disease in vivo. When priming and challenge viruses shared identical sequences of the immunodominant, protective NP366/Db epitope, strong cross-subtype protection was observed. However, when they did not share complete sequence identity in this epitope, cross-protection was considerably reduced. Contributions of virus-specific antibodies appeared to be minimal under these circumstances. Detailed analysis revealed that the magnitude of the memory CD8 T cell response triggered by the NP366/Db variants was significantly lower than those triggered by the homologous NP366/Db ligand. It appears that strict specificity of a dominant public TCR to the original NP366/Db ligand may limit the expansion of cross-reactive memory CD8 T cells to the NP366/Db variants. Conclusions/Significance: Pre-existing CD8 T cell immunity may provide substantial cross-protection against heterosubtypic influenza A viruses, provided that the priming and the subsequent challenge viruses share the identical sequences of the immunodominant, protective CTL epitopes

Biology and Behavior of Spathius agrili, a Parasitoid of the Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis, in China

Spathius agrili Yang (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) is a gregarious larval ectoparasitoid of the emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) and is a recently described species. Both pest and parasitoid are native to China. In Tianjin City, China, S. agrili typically exhibited 3–4 generations per year, overwintering as a prepupa in a cocoon inside the host gallery. The multiple generations of S. agrili overlapped with its host, as did the emergence dates of the overwintering generation. From a single host, 1–18 S. agrili successfully developed to the adult stage (average 8.4), but in all cases the host was killed. The sex ratio (female: male) of the parasitoid adults emerging from field-collected cocoons was 2:1, whereas the sex ratio of parasitoids reared from field collected eggs and larvae was greater than 3:1. On average, adult females lived 29.1 d, and males lived 23.6 d when fed with 20% honey solution, significantly longer than without a nutritional supplement. Sexual reproduction is the normal mode of reproduction, but in the laboratory females did reproduce parthenogenetically, producing only males. The average fecundity was 23.3 eggs per female in the laboratory. S. agrili developed through five larval instars, and the larvae fed gregariously on the host hemolymph. The generation time from egg to adult wasp was 27–28 d at 22–26°C. Natural parasitism rates were as high as 60%, and in October they reached over 90% in some stands. This study showed that S. agrili is a promising agent for biocontrol of A. planipennis

Clinical, Virological and Immunological Features from Patients Infected with Re-Emergent Avian-Origin Human H7N9 Influenza Disease of Varying Severity in Guangdong Province

The second wave of avian influenza H7N9 virus outbreak in humans spread to the Guangdong province of China by August of 2013 and this virus is now endemic in poultry in this region.Background The second wave of avian influenza H7N9 virus outbreak in humans spread to the Guangdong province of China by August of 2013 and this virus is now endemic in poultry in this region. Methods Five patients with H7N9 virus infection admitted to our hospital during August 2013 to February 2014 were intensively investigated. Viral load in the respiratory tract was determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Q-PCR) and cytokine levels were measured by bead-based flow cytometery. Results Four patients survived and one died. Viral load in different clinical specimens was correlated with cytokine levels in plasma and broncho-alveolar fluid (BALF), therapeutic modalities used and clinical outcome. Intravenous zanamivir appeared to be better than peramivir as salvage therapy in patients who failed to respond to oseltamivir. Higher and more prolonged viral load was found in the sputum or endotracheal aspirates compared to throat swabs. Upregulation of proinflammatory cytokines IP-10, MCP-1, MIG, MIP-1α/β, IL-1β and IL-8 was found in the plasma and BALF samples. The levels of cytokines in the plasma and viral load were correlated with disease severity. Reactivation of herpes simplex virus type 1(HSV-1) was found in three out of five patients (60%). Conclusion Expectorated sputum or endotracheal aspirate specimens are preferable to throat swabs for detecting and monitoring H7N9 virus. Severity of the disease was correlated to the viral load in the respiratory tract as well as the extents of cytokinemia. Reactivation of HSV-1 may contribute to clinical outcome.published_or_final_versio

Generation of Human Liver Chimeric Mice with Hepatocytes from Familial Hypercholesterolemia Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells

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A new accuracy measure based on bounded relative error for time series forecasting

Many accuracy measures have been proposed in the past for time series forecasting comparisons. However, many of these measures suffer from one or more issues such as poor resistance to outliers and scale dependence. In this paper, while summarising commonly used accuracy measures, a special review is made on the symmetric mean absolute percentage error. Moreover, a new accuracy measure called the Unscaled Mean Bounded Relative Absolute Error (UMBRAE), which combines the best features of various alternative measures, is proposed to address the common issues of existing measures. A comparative evaluation on the proposed and related measures has been made with both synthetic and real-world data. The results indicate that the proposed measure, with user selectable benchmark, performs as well as or better than other measures on selected criteria. Though it has been commonly accepted that there is no single best accuracy measure, we suggest that UMBRAE could be a good choice to evaluate forecasting methods, especially for cases where measures based on geometric mean of relative errors, such as the geometric mean relative absolute error, are preferred