Estimating and projecting HIV prevalence and AIDS deaths in Tanzania using antenatal surveillance data

BACKGROUND: The Estimations and Projections Package (EPP 2005) for HIV/AIDS estimates and projects HIV prevalence, number of people living with HIV and new HIV infections and AIDS cases using antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance data. The prevalence projection produced by EPP can be transferred to SPECTRUM, a demographic projectionmodel, to calculate the number of AIDS deaths. This paper presents estimates and projections of HIV prevalence, new cases of HIV infections and AIDS deaths in Tanzania between 2001 and 2010 using the EPP 2005 and SPECTRUM soft-wares on ANC data. METHODS: For this study we used; the 1985 – 2004 ANC data set, the 2005 UN population estimates for urban and rural adults, which is based on the 2002 population census, and results of the 2003 Tanzania HIV Indicator Survey. The ANC surveillance sites were categorized into urban and rural areas on the basis of the standard national definitions of urban and rural areas, which led to 40 urban and 35 rural clinic sites. The rural and urban epidemics were run independently by fitting the model to all data and on level fits. RESULTS: The national HIV prevalence increased from 0% in 1981 to a peak of 8.1% in 1995, and gradually decreased to 6.5% in 2004 which stabilized until 2010. The urban HIV epidemic increased from 0% in 1981 peaking at 12.6% in 1992 and leveled to between 10.9% and 11.8% from 2003 to 2010. The rural epidemic peaked in 1995 at 7.0% and gradually declined to 5.2% in 2004, and then stabilized at between 5.1% and 5.3% from 2005 to 2010. New infections are projected to rise steadily, resulting in 250,000 new cases in 2010. Deaths due to AIDS started in 1985 and rose steadily to reach 120,000 deaths in 2010, with more females dying than men. CONCLUSION: The fact that the number of new infections is projected to increase steadily to reach 250,000 per year in 2010 calls for more concerted efforts to combat the spread of HIV infection particularly in the rural areas where the infrastructure needed for prevention programmes such as counseling and testing, condom accessibility and AIDS information is less developed

Surveillance of HIV and syphilis infections among antenatal clinic attendees in Tanzania-2003/2004

BACKGROUND: This paper presents the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and syphilis infections among women attending antenatal clinics (ANC) in Tanzania obtained during the 2003/2004 ANC surveillance. METHODS: Ten geographical regions; six of them were involved in a previous survey, while the remaining four were freshly selected on the basis of having the largest population among the remaining 20 regions. For each region, six ANC were selected, two from each of three strata (urban, peri-urban and rural). Three of the sites did not participate, resulting into 57 surveyed clinics. 17,813 women who were attending the chosen clinics for the first time for any pregnancy between October 2003 and January 2004. Patient particulars were obtained by interview and blood specimens were drawn for HIV and syphilis testing. HIV testing was done anonymously and the results were unlinked. RESULTS: Of the 17,813 women screened for HIV, 1,545 (8.7% (95% CI = 8.3–9.1)) tested positive with the highest prevalence in women aged 25–34 years (11%), being higher among single women (9.7%) than married women (8.6%) (p < 0.07), and increased with level of education from 5.2% among women with no education to 9.3% among those at least primary education (p < 0.001). Prevalence ranged from 4.8% (95% CI = 3.8% – 9.8%) in Kagera to 15.3% (95% CI = 13.9% – 16.8%) in Mbeya and was; 3.7%, 4.7%, 9.1%, 11.2% and 15.3% for rural, semi-urban, road side, urban and 15.3% border clinics, respectively (p < 0.001). Of the 17,323 women screened for syphilis, 1265 (7.3% (95%CI = 6.9–7.7)) were positive, with highest prevalence in the age group 35–49 yrs (10.4%) (p < 0.001), and being higher among women with no education than those with some education (9.8% versus 6.8%) (p < 0.0001), but marital status had no influence. Prevalence ranged from 2.1% (95% CI = 1.4% – 3.0%) in Kigoma to 14.9% (95% CI = 13.3%-16.6%) in Kagera and was 16.0% (95% CI = 13.3–18.9), 10.5% (95% CI = 9.5–11.5) and 5.8% (95% CI = 5.4–6.3) for roadside, rural and urban clinics, respectively. Syphilis and HIV co-infection was seen in 130/17813 (0.7%). CONCLUSION: The high HIV prevalence observed among the ANC clinic attendees in Tanzania call for expansion of current voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) services and access to antiretroviral drugs (ARV) in the clinics. There is also a need for modification of obstetric practices and infant feeding options in HIV infection in order to prevent mother to child transmission of HIV. To increase uptake to HIV testing the opt-out strategy in which all clients are offered HIV testing is recommended in order to meet the needs of as many pregnant women as possible

Prevalence and risk factors for HIV-1 infection in rural Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania: Implications for prevention and treatment

BACKGROUND: Variability in stages of the HIV-1 epidemic and hence HIV-1 prevalence exists in different areas in sub-Saharan Africa. The purpose of this study was to investigate the magnitude of HIV-1 infection and identify HIV-1 risk factors that may help to develop preventive strategies in rural Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted between March and May of 2005 involving all individuals aged between 15–44 years having an address in Oria Village. All eligible individuals were registered and invited to participate. Participants were interviewed regarding their demographic characteristics, sexual behaviors, and medical history. Following a pre-test counseling, participants were offered an HIV test. RESULTS: Of the 2 093 eligible individuals, 1 528 (73.0%) participated. The overall age and sex adjusted HIV-1 prevalence was 5.6%. Women had 2.5 times higher prevalence (8.0% vs. 3.2%) as compared to men. The age group 25–44 years, marriage, separation and low education were associated with higher risk of HIV-1 infection for both sexes. HIV-1 infection was significantly associated with >2 sexual partners in the past 12 months (women: Adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.5 (95%CI: 1.3–4.7), and past 5 years, [(men: AOR, 2.2 (95%CI:1.2–5.6); women: AOR, 2.5 (95%CI: 1.4–4.0)], unprotected casual sex (men: AOR,1.8 95%CI: 1.2–5.8), bottled alcohol (Men: AOR, 5.9 (95%CI:1.7–20.1) and local brew (men: AOR, 3.7 (95%CI: 1.5–9.2). Other factors included treatment for genital ulcers and genital discharge in the past 1 month. Health-related complaints were more common among HIV-1 seropositive as compared to seronegative participants and predicted the presence of HIV-1 infection. CONCLUSION: HIV-1 infection was highly prevalent in this population. As compared to our previous findings, a shift of the epidemic from a younger to an older age group and from educated to uneducated individuals was observed. Women and married or separated individuals remained at higher risk of infection. To prevent further escalation of the HIV epidemic, efforts to scale up HIV prevention programmes addressing females, people with low education, lower age at marriage, alcohol consumption, condom use and multiple sexual partners for all age groups remains a top priority. Care and treatment are urgently needed for those infected in rural areas

Geographic access to care is not a determinant of child mortality in a rural Kenyan setting with high health facility density

BACKGROUND: Policy-makers evaluating country progress towards the Millennium Development Goals also examine trends in health inequities. Distance to health facilities is a known determinant of health care utilization and may drive inequalities in health outcomes; we aimed to investigate its effects on childhood mortality. METHODS: The Epidemiological and Demographic Surveillance System in Kilifi District, Kenya, collects data on vital events and migrations in a population of 220,000 people. We used Geographic Information Systems to estimate pedestrian and vehicular travel times to hospitals and vaccine clinics and developed proportional-hazards models to evaluate the effects of travel time on mortality hazard in children less than 5 years of age, accounting for sex, ethnic group, maternal education, migrant status, rainfall and calendar time. RESULTS: In 2004-6, under-5 and under-1 mortality ratios were 65 and 46 per 1,000 live-births, respectively. Median pedestrian and vehicular travel times to hospital were 193 min (inter-quartile range: 125-267) and 49 min (32-72); analogous values for vaccine clinics were 47 (25-73) and 26 min (13-40). Infant and under-5 mortality varied two-fold across geographic locations, ranging from 34.5 to 61.9 per 1000 child-years and 8.8 to 18.1 per 1000, respectively. However, distance to health facilities was not associated with mortality. Hazard Ratios (HR) were 0.99 (95% CI 0.95-1.04) per hour and 1.01 (95% CI 0.95-1.08) per half-hour of pedestrian and vehicular travel to hospital, respectively, and 1.00 (95% CI 0.99-1.04) and 0.97 (95% CI 0.92-1.05) per quarter-hour of pedestrian and vehicular travel to vaccine clinics in children <5 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: Significant spatial variations in mortality were observed across the area, but were not correlated with distance to health facilities. We conclude that given the present density of health facilities in Kenya, geographic access to curative services does not influence population-level mortality

Rapid increase in prevalence of male circumcision in rural Tanzania in the absence of a promotional campaign.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of circumcision among young men in rural Mwanza, North-Western Tanzania, and document trends in circumcision prevalence over time. To investigate associations of circumcision with socio-demographic characteristics, reported sexual behaviours and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey in communities which had previously participated in a cluster-randomized trial of an adolescent sexual health intervention that did not include male circumcision in 20 rural communities. METHODS: In 2007/08, 7300 young men (age 16-23 years) were interviewed and examined by a clinician. The prevalence of circumcision by age was compared with data collected during the trial in 1998-2002. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of circumcision with socio-demographic characteristics, reported sexual behaviours and with HIV and other STIs were estimated using multivariable conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: The prevalence of male circumcision was 40.6%, and age-specific prevalence had more than doubled since 2001/2002. Circumcised men reported less risky sexual behaviours, being more likely to report having ever used a condom (adjusted OR = 2.62, 95%CI:2.32-2.95). Men circumcised before sexual debut were at reduced risk of being HIV seropositive compared with non-circumcised men (adjusted OR = 0.50, 95%CI:0.25-0.97), and also had reduced risks of HSV-2 infection and genital ulcer syndrome in the past 12 months compared with non-circumcised men. CONCLUSIONS: There was a steep increase in circumcision prevalence between 2001/02 and 2007/08 in the absence of a promotional campaign. Circumcised men reported safer sexual practices than non-circumcised men and had lower prevalence of HIV and HSV-2 infection

Educational attainment and HIV-1 infection in developing countries: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether educational status is associated with HIV-1 infection in developing countries by conducting a systematic review of published literature. METHODS: Articles were identified through electronic databases and hand searching key journals. Studies containing appropriately analysed individual level data on the association between educational attainment and HIV-1 status in general population groups were included. RESULTS: Twenty-seven articles with appropriately analysed results from general population groups in developing countries were identified, providing information on only six countries. Large studies in four areas in Africa showed an increased risk of HIV-1 infection among the more educated, whilst among 21-year-old Thai army conscripts, longer duration of schooling was strongly protective against HIV infection. The association between education and schooling in Africa was stronger in rural areas and in older cohorts, but was similar in men and women. Serial prevalence studies showed little change in the association between schooling and HIV over time in Tanzania, but greater decreases in HIV prevalence among the more educated in Uganda, Zambia and Thailand. CONCLUSIONS: In Africa, higher educational attainment is often associated with a greater risk of HIV infection. However, the pattern of new HIV infections may be changing towards a greater burden among less educated groups. In Thailand those with more schooling remain at lower risk of HIV infection