Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Assessment of outpatient smoking cessation clinic, in a general hospital

INTRODUÇÃO: O tabagismo é reconhecido, atualmente, como um dos maiores problemas de saúde em todo o mundo. Há uma \"epidemia\" global de uso de tabaco nos países em desenvolvimento, no século 21. OBJETIVOS: Analisar: as características gerais dos indivíduos matriculados espontaneamente em um ambulatório antitabágico; a eficácia geral do tratamento antitabágico e dos medicamentos; as mudanças nas características dos participantes antes e após a Lei Ambiente Fechado Livre do Cigarro em São Paulo e os níveis de cotinina urinária em fumantes ativos, passivos e controles. CASUÍSTICA E MÉTODOS: Foi realizado um estudo de coorte histórica cujo critério de inclusão foi a matrícula no ambulatório antitabágico do HU USP, no período de 2004 a 2011. Os dados foram coletados por meio de consulta a protocolos padronizados e ao sistema informatizado do serviço. Foram analisados os resultados de dosagens de cotinina e creatinina realizadas em amostras biológicas. RESULTADOS: Dentre os 1736 pacientes atendidos houve predomínio de mulheres (62,1%), brancos (75,3%) e indivíduos com idade entre 41 e 60 anos (63,1%). Aproximadamente 80% iniciaram o tabagismo antes dos 20 anos e 75% apresentaram grau de dependência moderado a grave. Dentre os 620 indivíduos acompanhados a partir de 2009, 34,5% abandonaram o tabagismo. Dentre eles, 21,5% obtiveram êxito até o quarto contato com o ambulatório. O uso de vareniclina e terapia de reposição de nicotina (TRN) aumentaram a probabilidade de sucesso (RRR= 2,73 e 2,78, respectivamente; p < 0,001 para ambas). Quanto maior o número de reuniões frequentadas no ambulatório, maior a probabilidade de sucesso terapêutico (p < 0,001). A análise da dosagem da cotinina urinária mostrou concentrações de cotinina urinária 18,7 vezes maior no grupo de tabagistas ativos comparados aos tabagistas passivos. CONCLUSÃO: O sucesso do ambulatório antitabágico do HU manteve-se em acordo com grande parte dos índices de sucesso terapêutico presentes na literatura médica. O abandono do hábito de fumar foi fortemente associado ao número de contatos dos fumantes com o grupo e a terapêutica medicamentosa. A cotinina urinária mostrou-se um bom marcador do tabagismo ativoINTRODUCTION: Smoking is recognized today as one of the major health problems worldwide. There is a global \"epidemic\" of tobacco use in developing countries in the 21st Century. OBJECTIVES: Analyze: the general characteristics of individuals spontaneously enrolled in an outpatient smoking cessation clinic; the overall effectiveness of the smoking cessation treatment and medication; the changes in the characteristics of participants before and after the Smoke-Free Environment Act in São Paulo and the levels of urinary cotinine in active and passive smokers and controls. CASES AND METHODS: A historical cohort study was conducted, of which the inclusion criterion was the registration in the outpatient smoking cessation Clinic in the HU USP, in the period from 2004 to 2011. Data were collected by consultation of standardized protocols and of the computerized service system. The results of cotinine and creatinine measurements performed on biological samples were analyzed. RESULTS: Among the 1736 patients treated, there was a predominance of women (62.1%), whites (75.3%) and individuals aged between 41 and 60 years (63.1%). Approximately 80% began smoking before age 20 and 75% showed moderate to severe degree of dependence. Among the 620 individuals monitored from 2009 on, 34.5% quit smoking. Among them, 21.5% obtained success up to the fourth contact with the clinic. The use of varenicline and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) increased the probability of success (RRR= 2.73 and 2.78, respectively; p < 0.001 for both). The greater the number of meetings attended at the clinic, greater the probability of treatment success (p < 0.001). The analysis of urinary cotinine dosage showed urinary cotinine concentrations 18.7 times higher in the active smokers group, compared to the passive smokers group. CONCLUSION: The success of the smoking cessation clinic in the HU remained largely in accordance with most therapeutic success rates found in medical literature. Quitting smoking was strongly associated to the number of contacts of the smokers with the group and drug therapy. Urinary cotinine proved to be an accurate marker for active smokin

O conceito de Ciência no seu processo de realização

A ciência é desenvolvida na relação entre pesquisador e objeto de estudo. Tal relação pode se dar de três formas, sendo elas objetiva, subjetiva e dialética. Ao se destacar num trabalho científico qual a relação que o autor desenvolve com seu objeto de estudo, é possível evidenciar indícios de seu conceito de ciência já que, muitas vezes, é a forma com que o pesquisador se relaciona com o objeto que irá guiar suas práticas e o conduzir pelo caminho a ser seguido. Para isso realizou-se uma breve revisão das relações entre o sujeito conhecedor e objeto conhecido presentes historicamente na atividade científica. Foram coletados e analisados trabalhos de diversos pesquisadores de um centro de investigação científica e classificados numa das formas de relação entre sujeito e objeto sendo os de atitude realista de maior número, seguidos pelos idealistas e por fim pelos que privilegiam a relação. Os trabalhos realistas apresentam, de forma geral, uma pequena preocupação com a reflexão sobre o significado de sua própria prática. Acredita-se que a ciência realizada nestes trabalhos seja da maior qualidade e sugere-se, para uma realização ainda mais totalizante, que ocorra a prática de incorporação de cada vez mais da ciência da ciência em seu cotidiano. Serão suas reflexões que nos possibilitarão um desenvolver de uma ciência mais significativa e transformadora, cabendo aos pesquisadores, utilizarem da ciência da ciência para pensarem as práticas e a tornarem cada vez mais dialógicas e complexas, assim como a natureza o

Estado nutricional, autopercepção do estado nutricional e experimentação de drogas lícitas em adolescentes

ResumoObjetivoAssociar o estado nutricional e a autopercepção do estado nutricional com a experimentação de drogas lícitas em adolescentes.MétodosEstudo transversal no qual 210 adolescentes responderam a um questionário sobre experimentação de álcool e tabaco e sobre suas autopercepções nutricionais. Foi analisada a concordância entre autopercepção nutricional do adolescente e seu estado nutricional, bem como associações entre o estado nutricional, a autopercepção nutricional, sexo, idade e presença de tabagistas em casa com a experimentação de álcool e tabaco. As variáveis foram analisadas separadamente em análise bivariada e, a seguir, análise múltipla determinou fatores associados à experimentação.ResultadosParticiparam do estudo 210 adolescentes com mediana de idade de 148 meses, 56,6% do sexo feminino. Do total da amostra, 6,6% já experimentaram cigarro e 20% já experimentaram álcool; 32,3% tinham Z‐escore IMC≥1 e 12,85% tinham Z‐escore IMC≥2 e 50,7% acertaram suas classificações nutricionais. Após análise multivariada, apenas a autoimagem sobre o peso influenciou estatisticamente na experimentação de fumo. Pacientes que se identificavam com peso muito alto apresentaram maior chance de experimentação de fumo (odds ratio (OR) 13,57; intervalo de confiança (95% IC) 2,05‐89,8; p=0,007); em relação ao uso de álcool, adolescentes que se identificavam com peso alto apresentaram chance de uso de álcool 2,40 vezes maior do que crianças que se viam com peso normal (IC 95% 1,08‐5,32; p=0,031).ConclusõesAdolescentes com autopercepção de excesso de peso podem constituir um grupo de risco para a experimentação de álcool e tabaco.AbstractObjectiveTo associate the nutritional status and the self‐perception of nutritional status with the use of licit drugs among adolescents.MethodsCross‐sectional study in which 210 adolescents answered a questionnaire on alcohol and tobacco experimentation and self‐perceptions about their nutritional status. The correspondence between the adolescents’ perception of their own nutritional status and actual nutritional status was analyzed, as well as associations between nutritional status, self‐perception of nutritional status, gender, age, and presence of smokers at home with alcohol and tobacco use. The variables were analyzed separately in a bivariate analysis and, subsequently, a multivariate analysis determined the factors associated with drug use.ResultsThe study included 210 adolescents with a median age of 148 months; 56.6% were females. Of the total sample, 6.6% have tried cigarettes, and 20% have tried alcohol; 32.3% had BMI Z‐Score≥1, 12.85% had BMI Z‐Score≥2, and 50.7% had a correct perception of his/her weight. After a multivariate analysis, only the self‐perception about weight statistically influenced experimentation of tobacco, and patients who identified themselves as having very high weight were more likely to experiment tobacco (odds ratio (OR) 13.57; confidence interval (95% CI) 2.05‐89.8; p=0.007); regarding alcohol use, adolescents who identified themselves as having high weight were 2.4 times more likely to experiment with alcohol than adolescents that identified themselves as having normal weight (95% CI 1.08‐5.32, p=0.031).ConclusionsAdolescents with self‐perception of excess weight may constitute a risk group for alcohol and tobacco use

A prospective 12-month study of the effect of smoking cessation on periodontal clinical parameters

P>Aim The aim of this 12-month prospective study was to assess the adjunctive effect of smoking cessation in non-surgical periodontal therapy of subjects with severe chronic periodontitis. Materials and methods Of the 201 subjects enrolled from a smoking cessation clinic, 93 were eligible and received non-surgical periodontal treatment and concurrent smoking cessation treatment. Periodontal maintenance was performed every 3 months. Full-mouth periodontal examination in six sites per tooth was performed by a calibrated examiner, blinded to smoking status, at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months after non-surgical periodontal treatment. Furthermore, expired air carbon monoxide concentration measurements and interviews based on a structured questionnaire were performed in order to collect demographic and smoking data. Results Of the 93 eligible subjects, 52 remained in the study after 1 year. Of these, 17 quit smoking and 35 continued smoking or oscillated. After 1 year, only quitters presented significant clinical attachment gain (p=0.04). However, there were no differences between the groups regarding clinical attachment level, probing depth, bleeding on probing and plaque index after 1 year (p > 0.05). Conclusion Smoking cessation promoted clinical attachment gain in chronic periodontitis subjects from a smoking cessation clinic after 1 year of follow-up.Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)[07/54494-3

Complicated pneumococcal pneumonia in children at a university hospital in São Paulo (Brazil)

Background: Increasing prevalence of pleural empyema complicating community acquired pneumonia(CAP) is reported worldwide. Pleural empyema is reported in up to 28% of children hospitalized with CAP. In Brazil the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-10) was introduced in the National Immunization Program in April 2010.\ud Methods: From January 2003 to December 2011, a retrospective study of hospitalized children with a diagnosis of pneumococcal pneumonia was conducted at the Hospital Universitário da USP. Criteria for inclusion were: over 29 days and under 15 years,\ud radiological and clinical diagnosis of pneumonia, and isolation of Streptococcus pneumoniae in blood cultures and/or pleural effusion. Results: The study included 152 children. Eighty-six were male (56.6%), median age was 23 months (53.3% ≤24 months). The median length of hospital stay was 7.5 days. The most common serotypes isolated were 14 (40.2%), 5 (13.6%), 1 (12.9%), 6B (6.1%) and 19A (4.5%). Ninety (59.2%) of them had complications. Of the children complicated, empyema occurred in 51.1% and uncomplicated pleural effusion in 37.8%. Other\ud complications were: septicemia requiring vasoactive drugs (24.4%), pneumatocele (15.6%), pneumothorax (12.2%), atelectasis (10%), necrotizing pneumonia (5.6%) and lung abscess (5.6%). The median age of children with empyema was 32.5 months. The median length of hospital stay for cases of empyema was 15 days. The most common serotypes in empyema were 14 (35%), 5 (27.5%), 1 (12.5%), and 19A (7.5%). The coverage for pneumococcal pneumonia in 10-valent and 13-valent conjugate vaccines was 85.6% and 96.2% respectively and for empyema was 90% and 97.5%. There was a trend towards increased complications, especially empyema during the years of study. Three children died. Conclusions: The complications often occurred in older children and the most frequent were empyema and pleural effusion\ud uncomplicated. The coverage for complicated pneumonia by PCV-10 and PCV-13 were excellent.Apresentado no 11th International Congress on Pediatric Pulmonology, June 30 - July 2, 2012, Bangkok, Thailand

Impacto del uso de la prueba rápida para estreptococos beta-hemolíticos del grupo A en el diagnóstico y tratamiento de la faringotonsilitis en emergencia de Pediatria

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the routine use of rapid antigen detection test in the diagnosis and treatment of acute pharyngotonsillitis in children. METHODS: This is a prospective and observational study, with a protocol compliance design established at the Emergency Unit of the University Hospital of Universidade de São Paulo for the care of children and adolescents diagnosed with acute pharyngitis. RESULTS: 650 children and adolescents were enrolled. Based on clinical findings, antibiotics would be prescribed for 389 patients (59.8%); using the rapid antigen detection test, they were prescribed for 286 patients (44.0%). Among the 261 children who would not have received antibiotics based on the clinical evaluation, 111 (42.5%) had positive rapid antigen detection test. The diagnosis based only on clinical evaluation showed 61.1% sensitivity, 47.7% specificity, 44.9% positive predictive value, and 57.5% negative predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical diagnosis of streptococcal pharyngotonsillitis had low sensitivity and specificity. The routine use of rapid antigen detection test led to the reduction of antibiotic use and the identification of a risk group for complications of streptococcal infection, since 42.5% positive rapid antigen detection test patients would not have received antibiotics based only on clinical diagnosis.OBJETIVO: Avaliar o impacto da realização rotineira da prova rápida para pesquisa de estreptococo do grupo A no diagnóstico e tratamento da faringotonsilite aguda em crianças. MÉTODOS: Estudo prospectivo e observacional que contou com a utilização de protocolo de pesquisa estabelecido na Unidade de Emergência do Hospital Universitário da Universidade de São Paulo para o atendimento de crianças e adolescentes com faringotonsilite aguda. RESULTADOS: Com base na avaliação clínica, dos 650 pacientes estudados, antimicrobianos seriam prescritos para 389 indivíduos (59,8%) e, com o uso da pesquisa de estreptococo do grupo A, foram prescritos em 286 pacientes (44,0%). Das 261 crianças que não receberiam antibiótico pelo quadro clínico, 111 (42,5%) tiveram pesquisa de estreptococo do grupo A positiva. O diagnóstico baseado no quadro clínico apresentou sensibilidade de 61,1%, especificidade de 47,7%, valor preditivo positivo de 44,9% e valor preditivo negativo de 57,5%. CONCLUSÕES: O diagnóstico clínico da faringotonsilite estreptocócica mostrou baixa sensibilidade e especificidade. O uso rotineiro da prova rápida para pesquisa de estreptococo permitiu a redução do uso de antibióticos e a identificação de um grupo de risco para as complicações da infecção estreptocócica, pois 42,5% dos pacientes com prova rápida positiva não receberiam antibióticos, se levado em consideração apenas o diagnóstico clínico.OBJETIVO: Evaluar el impacto de la realización de rutina de la prueba rápida para investigación de estreptococos del grupo A en el diagnóstico y tratamiento de la faringotonsilitis aguda en niños. MÉTODOS: Estudio prospectivo y observacional que contó con el uso de protocolo de investigación establecido en la Unidad de Emergencia del Hospital Universitario de la USP para la atención a niños y adolescentes con faringotonsilitis aguda. RESULTADOS: Con base en la evaluación crítica, de los 650 pacientes estudiados, antimicrobianos serían prescritos a 389 individuos (59,8%) y, con el uso de la investigación de estreptococos del grupo A se los prescribieron a 286 pacientes (44,0%). De los 261 niños que no recibirían antibióticos por el cuadro clínico, 111 (42,5%) tuvieron investigación de estreptococos del grupo A positiva. El diagnóstico basado en el cuadro clínico presentó sensibilidad del 61,1%, especificidad del 47,7%, valor predictivo positivo del 44,9% y valor predictivo negativo del 57,5%, CONCLUSIONES: En este estudio, el diagnóstico clínico de la faringotonsilitis estreptocócica mostró baja sensibilidad y especificidad. El uso de rutina de la prueba rápida para investigación de estreptococos permitió la reducción del uso de antibióticos y la identificación de un grupo de riesgo para las complicaciones de la infección estreptocócica, pues el 42,5% de los pacientes con prueba rápida positiva no recibirían antibióticos si se llevara en consideración solamente el diagnóstico clínico

Predictors of smoking cessation in smokers with chronic periodontitis: a 24-month study

Abstract The purpose of this 24-month study was to identify predictors of smoking cessation in a cohort of smokers with chronic periodontitis, attending a multidisciplinary smoking cessation program. Of the 286 subjects screened, 116 were included and received non-surgical periodontal treatment and smoking cessation therapy, which consisted of lectures, cognitive behavioral therapy, and pharmacotherapy, according to their individual needs. During initial periodontal treatment, dentists actively motivated the study subjects to stop smoking, using motivational interviewing techniques. Further smoking cessation counseling and support were also provided by the dentists, during periodontal maintenance sessions at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months of follow-up. Smoking status was assessed by means of a structured questionnaire, and was validated by exhaled carbon monoxide (CO) measurements. The Fagerström Test for Cigarette Dependence was used to assess smoking dependence. Of the 61 individuals that remained up to the 24-month examination, 31, 21 and 18 declared that they were not smoking at 3, 12 and 24 months, respectively. Smoking cessation after 24 months was associated with the male gender (OR = 3.77, 95%CI = 1.16–12.30), baseline CO levels less than 10ppm (OR = 5.81, 95%CI 1.76–19.23), not living or working with another smoker (OR = 7.38, 95%CI 1.76–30.98) and a lower mean Fagerström test score (OR = 5.63, 95%CI 1.55–20.43). We concluded that smoking cessation was associated with demographic, smoking history and cigarette dependence variables