Trends in the lifetime risk of developing cancer in Great Britain: comparison of risk for those born from 1930 to 1960

BACKGROUND: Typically, lifetime risk is calculated by the period method using current risks at different ages. Here, we estimate the probability of being diagnosed with cancer for individuals born in a given year, by estimating future risks as the cohort ages. METHODS: We estimated the lifetime risk of cancer in Britain separately for men and women born in each year from 1930 to 1960. We projected rates of all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and of all cancer deaths forwards using a flexible age-period-cohort model and backwards using age-specific extrapolation. The sensitivity of the estimated lifetime risk to the method of projection was explored. RESULTS: The lifetime risk of cancer increased from 38.5% for men born in 1930 to 53.5% for men born in 1960. For women it increased from 36.7 to 47.5%. Results are robust to different models for projections of cancer rates. CONCLUSIONS: The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is >50%. Over half of people who are currently adults under the age of 65 years will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lifetime

Recent changes in breast cancer incidence and risk factor prevalence in San Francisco Bay area and California women: 1988 to 2004

IntroductionHistorically, the incidence rate of breast cancer among non-Hispanic white women living in the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA) of California has been among the highest in the world. Substantial declines in breast cancer incidence rates have been documented in the United States and elsewhere during recent years. In light of these reports, we examined recent changes in breast cancer incidence and risk factor prevalence among non-Hispanic white women in the SFBA and other regions of California.MethodsAnnual age-adjusted breast cancer incidence and mortality rates (1988 to 2004) were obtained from the California Cancer Registry and analyzed using Joinpoint regression. Population-based risk factor prevalences were calculated using two data sources: control subjects from four case-control studies (1989 to 1999) and the 2001 and 2003 California Health Interview Surveys.ResultsIn the SFBA, incidence rates of invasive breast cancer increased 1.3% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7% to 2.0%) in 1988-1999 and decreased 3.6% per year (95% CI, 1.6% to 5.6%) in 1999-2004. In other regions of California, incidence rates of invasive breast cancer increased 0.8% per year (95% CI, 0.4% to 1.1%) in 1988-2001 and decreased 4.4% per year (95% CI, 1.4% to 7.3%) in 2001-2004. In both regions, recent (2000-2001 to 2003-2004) decreases in invasive breast cancer occurred only in women 40 years old or older and in women with all histologic subtypes and tumor sizes, hormone receptor-defined types, and all stages except distant disease. Mortality rates declined 2.2% per year (95% CI, 1.8% to 2.6%) from 1988 to 2004 in the SFBA and the rest of California. Use of estrogen-progestin hormone therapy decreased significantly from 2001 to 2003 in both regions. In 2003-2004, invasive breast cancer incidence remained higher (4.2%) in the SFBA than in the rest of California, consistent with the higher distributions of many established risk factors, including advanced education, nulliparity, late age at first birth, and alcohol consumption.ConclusionOngoing surveillance of breast cancer occurrence patterns in this high-risk population informs breast cancer etiology through comparison of trends with lower-risk populations and by highlighting the importance of examining how broad migration patterns influence the geographic distribution of risk factors

Impact of the American Stop Smoking Intervention Study on cigarette consumption.

ObjectiveTo obtain an early estimate of the effectiveness of the American Stop Smoking Intervention Study (ASSIST).Design, setting, and participantsSeventeen American states funded through ASSIST are compared with 32 others regarding per capita cigarette consumption from 1989 to 1995. California, which already had an extensive tobacco control programme, was omitted. ASSIST states were selected competitively (not randomly) based on their proposals' merit, state smoking prevalence, and geographical distribution.InterventionsComprehensive tobacco control programmes, emphasising policy interventions, were implemented in the ASSIST states beginning in 1993.Main outcome measuresTrends in aggregated per capita cigarette consumption and inflation-adjusted average price/pack of cigarettes in the intervention states were compared. Percentage change in per capita consumption is also compared with percentage change in inflation-adjusted cigarette price by state in each group from 1992 to 1994.ResultsPer capita consumption and inflation-adjusted cigarette price were nearly identical in both groups of states before 1993, when full funding for the ASSIST interventions began. However, by 1996 smokers in the intervention states were consuming about 7% less cigarettes per capita (P<0.05, beginning in 1994), and in 1994 the average price was over $0.12/pack higher in the intervention states. All but three states (all intervention) showed decreases in cigarette price. Nonetheless, 76% of the intervention and 55% of the comparison states showed some decrease in consumption despite decreases in price. The relationship between changes in price and consumption was considerably diminished in the intervention group.ConclusionsThese interim results suggest that the ASSIST programme is associated with a substantial difference in tobacco consumption in a third of the United States, and that increased price from taxation may not be the only programme influence

Impact of the American Stop Smoking Intervention Study on cigarette consumption.

ObjectiveTo obtain an early estimate of the effectiveness of the American Stop Smoking Intervention Study (ASSIST).Design, setting, and participantsSeventeen American states funded through ASSIST are compared with 32 others regarding per capita cigarette consumption from 1989 to 1995. California, which already had an extensive tobacco control programme, was omitted. ASSIST states were selected competitively (not randomly) based on their proposals' merit, state smoking prevalence, and geographical distribution.InterventionsComprehensive tobacco control programmes, emphasising policy interventions, were implemented in the ASSIST states beginning in 1993.Main outcome measuresTrends in aggregated per capita cigarette consumption and inflation-adjusted average price/pack of cigarettes in the intervention states were compared. Percentage change in per capita consumption is also compared with percentage change in inflation-adjusted cigarette price by state in each group from 1992 to 1994.ResultsPer capita consumption and inflation-adjusted cigarette price were nearly identical in both groups of states before 1993, when full funding for the ASSIST interventions began. However, by 1996 smokers in the intervention states were consuming about 7% less cigarettes per capita (P<0.05, beginning in 1994), and in 1994 the average price was over $0.12/pack higher in the intervention states. All but three states (all intervention) showed decreases in cigarette price. Nonetheless, 76% of the intervention and 55% of the comparison states showed some decrease in consumption despite decreases in price. The relationship between changes in price and consumption was considerably diminished in the intervention group.ConclusionsThese interim results suggest that the ASSIST programme is associated with a substantial difference in tobacco consumption in a third of the United States, and that increased price from taxation may not be the only programme influence

Cancer risk perception and prevention behaviours among relatives of terminal cancer patients and the role of primary care for them

Annual Scientific Meeting of The Hong Kong College of Family Physicians (HKCFP), Hong Kong, 18 December 2010