Atmosphere-land surface interactions and their influence on extreme rainfall and potential abrupt climate change over southern Africa

In a changing climate, changes in rainfall variability and, in particular, extreme rainfall events are likely to be highly significant for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. It is generally accepted that sea-surface temperatures play an important role in modulating rainfall variability, thus the majority work to date has focused on these mechanisms. However past research suggests that land surface processes are also critical for rainfall variability. In particular, work has suggested that the atmosphere-land surface feedback has been important for past abrupt climate changes, such as those which occurred over the Sahara during the mid-Holocene or, more recently, the prolonged Sahelian drought. Therefore the primary aim of this work is to undertake idealised experiments using both a regional and global climate model, to test the sensitivity of rainfall variability to land surface changes over a location where such abrupt climate changes are projected to occur in the future, namely southern Africa. In one experiment, the desert conditions currently observed over southwestern Africa were extended to cover the entire subcontinent. This is based on past research which suggests a remobilisation of sand dune activity and spatial extent under various scenarios of future anthropogenic global warming. In the second experiment, savanna conditions were imposed over all of southern Africa, representing an increase in vegetation for most areas except the equatorial regions. The results suggest that a decrease in rainfall occurs in the desert run, up to 27% of total rainfall in the regional model (relative to the control), due to a reduction in available moisture, less evaporation, less vertical uplift and therefore higher near surface pressure. This result is consistent across both the regional and global model experiments. Conversely an increase in rainfall occurs in the savanna run, because of an increase in available moisture giving an increase in latent heat and therefore surface temperature, increasing vertical uplift and lowering near surface pressure. These experiments, however, are only preliminary, and form the first stage of a wider study into how the atmosphere-land surface feedback influences rainfall extremes over southern Africa in the past (when surface i.e. vegetation conditions were very different) and in the future under various scenarios of future climate change. Future work will examine how other climate models simulate the atmosphere-land surface feedback, using more realistic vegetation types based on past and future surface conditions

Dengue viruses – an overview

Dengue viruses (DENVs) cause the most common arthropod-borne viral disease in man with 50–100 million infections per year. Because of the lack of a vaccine and antiviral drugs, the sole measure of control is limiting the Aedes mosquito vectors. DENV infection can be asymptomatic or a self-limited, acute febrile disease ranging in severity. The classical form of dengue fever (DF) is characterized by high fever, headache, stomach ache, rash, myalgia, and arthralgia. Severe dengue, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), and dengue shock syndrome (DSS) are accompanied by thrombocytopenia, vascular leakage, and hypotension. DSS, which can be fatal, is characterized by systemic shock. Despite intensive research, the underlying mechanisms causing severe dengue is still not well understood partly due to the lack of appropriate animal models of infection and disease. However, even though it is clear that both viral and host factors play important roles in the course of infection, a fundamental knowledge gap still remains to be filled regarding host cell tropism, crucial host immune response mechanisms, and viral markers for virulence

Arboviruses of Oceania

Arboviruses present an ongoing challenge to Oceanic nations. Viruses including Ross River, Barmah Forest and Murray Valley encephalitis are endemic to the region and are responsible for occasional outbreaks. Recent epidemics of chikungunya, Zika and dengue viruses across many nations demonstrate the vulnerability of this region to globally emergent arboviruses. In addition to global disease trends, the emergence of these viruses is largely driven by human influences such as water and waste management, air travel and land use. Limited public health resources and infrastructure, dispersed populations and the complexity of arbovirus ecologies complicate mitigation and management strategies in the Western Pacific. A regional collaborative approach augments the surveillance and response capability of individual nations, but the challenge of managing arbovirus risk with limited resources remains. In the absence of specific disease treatments and feasible vaccination solutions, mosquito control and personal protective measures are the mainstay of management programmes, albeit with variable success. In the long term, the development and integration of novel surveillance, diagnostic and mosquito control technologies will improve the capacity to prevent and respond to arbovirus threats