Processes analogous to ecological interactions and dispersal shape the dynamics of economic activities

The processes of ecological interactions, dispersal and mutations shape the dynamics of biological communities, and analogous eco-evolutionary processes acting upon economic entities have been proposed to explain economic change. This hypothesis is compelling because it explains economic change through endogenous mechanisms, but it has not been quantitatively tested at the global economy level. Here, we use an inverse modelling technique and 59 years of economic data covering 77 countries to test whether the collective dynamics of national economic activities can be characterised by eco-evolutionary processes. We estimate the statistical support of dynamic community models in which the dynamics of economic activities are coupled with positive and negative interactions between the activities, the spatial dispersal of the activities, and their transformations into other economic activities. We find strong support for the models capturing positive interactions between economic activities and spatial dispersal of the activities across countries. These results suggest that processes akin to those occurring in ecosystems play a significant role in the dynamics of economic systems. The strength-of-evidence obtained for each model varies across countries and may be caused by differences in the distance between countries, specific institutional contexts, and historical contingencies. Overall, our study provides a new quantitative, biologically inspired framework to study the forces shaping economic change.Comment: 23 page

A method to quantify and account for the hygroscopic effect in stem diameter variations

Dendrometers recording stem diameter variations (SDV) at high-resolution are useful to assess trees' water relation since water reserves are stored in the elastic tissue of the bark. These tissues typically shrink during the day as they release water when evaporative demand is high and swell during the night as they are replenished when evaporative demand is low, generating the typical SDV profile known as the diel SDV cycle. However, similar SDV cycles have been observed on dead trees due to the hygroscopic shrinking and swelling of the dead bark tissues. In order to remove this hygroscopic effect of the bark, dendrometers are applied as close as possible to the living bark tissues by removing the outer dead layer, however with questionable success. In this study, we used SDV time series from 40 point dendrometers applied on dead-bark-removed mature trees to assess and quantify the remaining hygroscopic effect on individual trees. To do so, we checked SDV behavior in the cold season and explored the relation between the diel SDV cycle and changes in relative humidity (RH). Our results showed that (a) the hygroscopic effect in SDV can be well-detected based on the amplitude of the diel SDV cycle (diel SDVampl) and the correlation between SDV and RH during both the cold and the warm season; (b) the level of the hygroscopic effect varies strongly among individuals; (c) diel SDVampl is proportional to both changes in RH and transpiration so that the hygroscopic effect on the diel SDV cycle can be quantified using a linear model where (diel SDVampl) is a function of RH changes and transpiration. These results allow the use of the model to correct the amplitude of the diel SDV cycles and suggest that this method can be applied to other ecological relevant water-related SDV variables such as tree water deficit

Tree migration-rates : narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates

Faster-than-expected post-glacial migration rates of trees have puzzled ecologists for a long time. In Europe, post-glacial migration is assumed to have started from the three southern European peninsulas (southern refugia), where large areas remained free of permafrost and ice at the peak of the last glaciation. However, increasing palaeobotanical evidence for the presence of isolated tree populations in more northerly microrefugia has started to change this perception. Here we use the Northern Eurasian Plant Macrofossil Database and palaeoecological literature to show that post-glacial migration rates for trees may have been substantially lower (60–260 m yr–1) than those estimated by assuming migration from southern refugia only (115–550 m yr–1), and that early-successional trees migrated faster than mid- and late-successional trees. Post-glacial migration rates are in good agreement with those recently projected for the future with a population dynamical forest succession and dispersal model, mainly for early-successional trees and under optimal conditions. Although migration estimates presented here may be conservative because of our assumption of uniform dispersal, tree migration-rates clearly need reconsideration. We suggest that small outlier populations may be a key factor in understanding past migration rates and in predicting potential future range-shifts. The importance of outlier populations in the past may have an analogy in the future, as many tree species have been planted beyond their natural ranges, with a more beneficial microclimate than their regional surroundings. Therefore, climate-change-induced range-shifts in the future might well be influenced by such microrefugia

The role of dispersal limitation in the forest biome shifts of Europe in the last 18,000 years

Aim: How the ability of plants to move towards newly favourable habitats (dispersal limitation) impacts the change of biome distribution and transition under fast climate warming is still debated. Analysing vegetation change in the past may help to clarify the relative importance of underlying ecological processes such as climate, biotic interactions, and dispersal. In this study, we investigated how dispersal limitation affected the distribution of European forests in the last 18,000 years. Location: Southern and Central Europe. Taxon: Spermatophyta. Methods: Using the LPJ-GM 2.0 model (an extension of LPJ-GUESS), we simulated European vegetation from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (18.5 ka) to the current time (0 ka). Using biome reconstructions from pollen data as reference, we compared the performance of two dispersal modes: with no migration constraints or seed limitation (free dispersal mode), and with plant establishment depending on seed dynamics and dispersal (dispersal limitation mode). Results: The model run, including migration processes, was better at capturing the post-glacial expansion of European temperate forests (and the longer persistence of boreal forests) than the setting assuming free dispersal, especially during periods of rapid warming. This suggests that a number of (temperate) tree taxa experienced delayed occupancy of climatically suitable habitats due to a limited dispersal capacity, i.e., post-glacial migration lags. Main Conclusions: Our results show that including migration processes in model simulations allows for more realistic reconstructions of forest patterns under rapid climate change, with consequences for future projections of carbon sequestration and climate reconstructions with vegetation feedback, assisted migration and forest conservation.

Tree migration in the dynamic, global vegetation model LPJ-GM 1.1 : efficient uncertainty assessment and improved dispersal kernels of European trees

The prediction of species geographic redistribution under climate change (i.e. range shifts) has been addressed by both experimental and modelling approaches and can be used to inform efficient policy measures on the functioning and services of future ecosystems. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are considered state-of-the art tools to understand and quantify the spatio-temporal dynamics of ecosystems at large scales and their response to changing environments. They can explicitly include local vegetation dynamics relevant to migration (establishment, growth, seed (propagule) production), species-specific dispersal abilities and the competitive interactions with other species in the new environment. However, the inclusion of more detailed mechanistic formulations of range shift processes may also widen the overall uncertainty of the model. Thus, a quantification of these uncertainties is needed to evaluate and improve our confidence in the model predictions. In this study, we present an efficient assessment of parameter and model uncertainties combining low-cost analyses in successive steps: local sensitivity analysis, exploration of the performance landscape at extreme parameter values, and inclusion of relevant ecological processes in the model structure. This approach was tested on the newly implemented migration module of the state-of-the-art DGVM LPJ-GM, focusing on European forests. Estimates of post-glacial migration rates obtained from pollen and macrofossil records of dominant European tree taxa were used to test the model performance. The results indicate higher sensitivity of migration rates to parameters associated with the dispersal kernel (dispersal distances and kernel shape) compared to plant traits (germination rate and maximum fecundity) and highlight the importance of representing rare long-distance dispersal events via fat-tailed kernels. Overall, the successful parametrization and model selection of LPJ-GM will allow plant migration to be simulated with a more mechanistic approach at larger spatial and temporal scales, thus improving our efforts to understand past vegetation dynamics and predict future range shifts in a context of global change

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Würm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Würm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path

Testing an optimality-based model of rooting zone water storage capacity in temperate forests

Rooting zone water storage capacity Sr is a crucial parameter for modeling hydrology, ecosystem gas exchange and vegetation dynamics. Despite its importance, this parameter is still poorly constrained and subject to high uncertainty. We tested the analytical, optimality-based model of effective rooting depth proposed by Guswa (2008, 2010) with regard to its applicability for parameterizing Sr in temperate forests. The model assumes that plants dimension their rooting systems to maximize net carbon gain. Results from this model were compared against values obtained by calibrating a local water balance model against latent heat flux and soil moisture observations from 15 eddy covariance sites. Then, the effect of optimality-based Sr estimates on the performance of local water balance predictions was assessed during model validation. The agreement between calibrated and optimality-based Sr varied greatly across climates and forest types. At a majority of cold and temperate sites, the Sr estimates were similar for both methods, and the water balance model performed equally well when parameterized with calibrated and with optimality-based Sr. At spruce-dominated sites, optimality-based Sr were much larger than calibrated values. However, this did not affect the performance of the water balance model. On the other hand, at the Mediterranean sites considered in this study, optimality-based Sr were consistently much smaller than calibrated values. The same was the case at pine-dominated sites on sandy soils. Accordingly, performance of the water balance model was much worse at these sites when optimality-based Sr were used. This rooting depth parameterization might be used in dynamic (eco)hydrological models under cold and temperate conditions, either to estimate Sr without calibration or as a model component. This could greatly increase the reliability of transient climate-impact assessment studies. On the other hand, the results from this study do not warrant the application of this model to Mediterranean climates or on very coarse soils. While the cause of these mismatches cannot be determined with certainty, it is possible that trees under these conditions follow rooting strategies that differ from the carbon budget optimization assumed by the model.ISSN:1027-5606ISSN:1607-793

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Würm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Würm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path