Extreme Value Theory Approach to Simultaneous Monitoring and Thresholding of Multiple Risk Indicators

Risk assessments often encounter extreme settings with very few or no occurrences in reality.Inferences about risk indicators in such settings face the problem of insufficient data.Extreme value theory is particularly well suited for handling this type of problems.This paper uses a multivariate extreme value theory approach to establish thresholds for signaling levels of risk in the context of simultaneous monitoring of multiple risk indicators.The proposed threshold system is well justified in terms of extreme multivariate quantiles, and its sample estimator is shown to be consistent.As an illustration, the proposed approach is applied to developing a threshold system for monitoring airline performance measures.This threshold system assigns different risk levels to observed airline performance measures.In particular, it divides the sample space into regions with increasing levels of risk.Moreover, in the univariate case, such a thresholding technique can be used to determine a suitable cut-off point on a runway for holding short of landing aircrafts.This cut-off point is chosen to ensure a certain required level of safety when allowing simultaneous operations on two intersecting runways in order to ease air traffic congestion.Extreme value theory;extreme quantile;multiple risk indicators;multivariate quantile;rare event;statistics of extremes;threshold system

Extreme Value Theory Approach to Simultaneous Monitoring and Thresholding of Multiple Risk Indicators

Risk assessments often encounter extreme settings with very few or no occurrences in reality.Inferences about risk indicators in such settings face the problem of insufficient data.Extreme value theory is particularly well suited for handling this type of problems.This paper uses a multivariate extreme value theory approach to establish thresholds for signaling levels of risk in the context of simultaneous monitoring of multiple risk indicators.The proposed threshold system is well justified in terms of extreme multivariate quantiles, and its sample estimator is shown to be consistent.As an illustration, the proposed approach is applied to developing a threshold system for monitoring airline performance measures.This threshold system assigns different risk levels to observed airline performance measures.In particular, it divides the sample space into regions with increasing levels of risk.Moreover, in the univariate case, such a thresholding technique can be used to determine a suitable cut-off point on a runway for holding short of landing aircrafts.This cut-off point is chosen to ensure a certain required level of safety when allowing simultaneous operations on two intersecting runways in order to ease air traffic congestion.

Understanding of hydrogel network formation and its application in the architecture of significantly enhanced hydrogel

An understanding of the physical hydrogel network formation has been obtained by dynamic rheological experiments. The evidence shows that the network formation turns out to be a nucleation-controlled process. It was found that there exists a critical temperature Tc; fiber branching is greatly enhanced when the network formation is performed in the regime of T&lt;Tc (T, the final setting temperature). This finding enables the authors to build significantly enhanced gel networks. So far G&prime; (elastic modulus) of the hydrogel network has been enhanced by 187% while the formation period can be greatly shortened to only 1/20 of the previous process.<br /

Ultrafast geometric manipulation of electron spin and detection of the geometric phase via Faraday rotation spectroscopy

Time-resolved Faraday rotation spectroscopy is currently exploited as a powerful technique to probe spin dynamics in semiconductors. We propose here an all-optical approach to geometrically manipulate electron spin and to detect the geometric phase by this type of extremely sensitive experiment. The global nature of the geometric phase can make the quantum manipulation more stable, which may find interesting application in quantum devices.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Grain boundary effects on magnetotransport in bi-epitaxial films of La0.7_{0.7}Sr0.3_{0.3}MnO3_3

The low field magnetotransport of La$_{0.7}$Sr$_{0.3}$MnO$_3$ (LSMO) films grown on SrTiO$_3$ substrates has been investigated. A high qualtity LSMO film exhibits anisotropic magnetoresistance (AMR) and a peak in the magnetoresistance close to the Curie temperature of LSMO. Bi-epitaxial films prepared using a seed layer of MgO and a buffer layer of CeO$_2$ display a resistance dominated by grain boundaries. One film was prepared with seed and buffer layers intact, while a second sample was prepared as a 2D square array of grain boundaries. These films exhibit i) a low temperature tail in the low field magnetoresistance; ii) a magnetoconductance with a constant high field slope; and iii) a comparably large AMR effect. A model based on a two-step tunneling process, including spin-flip tunneling, is discussed and shown to be consistent with the experimental findings of the bi-epitaxial films.Comment: REVTeX style; 14 pages, 9 figures. Figure 1 included in jpeg format (zdf1.jpg); the eps was huge. Accepted to Phys. Rev.

Search for the Rare Decays J/Psi --> Ds- e+ nu_e, J/Psi --> D- e+ nu_e, and J/Psi --> D0bar e+ e-

We report on a search for the decays J/Psi --> Ds- e+ nu_e + c.c., J/Psi --> D- e+ nu_e + c.c., and J/Psi --> D0bar e+ e- + c.c. in a sample of 5.8 * 10^7 J/Psi events collected with the BESII detector at the BEPC. No excess of signal above background is observed, and 90% confidence level upper limits on the branching fractions are set: B(J/Psi --> Ds- e+ nu_e + c.c.)<4.8*10^-5, B(J/Psi --> D- e+ nu_e + c.c.) D0bar e+ e- + c.c.)<1.1*10^-5Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure

Direct Measurements of the Branching Fractions for D0→K−e+νeD^0 \to K^-e^+\nu_e and D0→π−e+νeD^0 \to \pi^-e^+\nu_e and Determinations of the Form Factors f+K(0)f_{+}^{K}(0) and f+π(0)f^{\pi}_{+}(0)

The absolute branching fractions for the decays $D^0 \to K^-e ^+\nu_e$ and $D^0 \to \pi^-e^+\nu_e$ are determined using $7584\pm 198 \pm 341$ singly tagged $\bar D^0$ sample from the data collected around 3.773 GeV with the BES-II detector at the BEPC. In the system recoiling against the singly tagged $\bar D^0$ meson, $104.0\pm 10.9$ events for $D^0 \to K^-e ^+\nu_e$ and $9.0 \pm 3.6$ events for $D^0 \to \pi^-e^+\nu_e$ decays are observed. Those yield the absolute branching fractions to be $BF(D^0 \to K^-e^+\nu_e)=(3.82 \pm 0.40\pm 0.27)$ and $BF(D^0 \to \pi^-e^+\nu_e)=(0.33 \pm 0.13\pm 0.03)$. The vector form factors are determined to be $|f^K_+(0)| = 0.78 \pm 0.04 \pm 0.03$ and $|f^{\pi}_+(0)| = 0.73 \pm 0.14 \pm 0.06$. The ratio of the two form factors is measured to be $|f^{\pi}_+(0)/f^K_+(0)|= 0.93 \pm 0.19 \pm 0.07$.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

BESII Detector Simulation

A Monte Carlo program based on Geant3 has been developed for BESII detector simulation. The organization of the program is outlined, and the digitization procedure for simulating the response of various sub-detectors is described. Comparisons with data show that the performance of the program is generally satisfactory.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, uses elsart.cls, to be submitted to NIM

Measurements of J/psi Decays into 2(pi+pi-)eta and 3(pi+pi-)eta

Based on a sample of 5.8X 10^7 J/psi events taken with the BESII detector, the branching fractions of J/psi--> 2(pi+pi-)eta and J/psi-->3(pi+pi-)eta are measured for the first time to be (2.26+-0.08+-0.27)X10^{-3} and (7.24+-0.96+-1.11)X10^{-4}, respectively.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figure