Variability in transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Canadian communities

Abstract Background The prevalence and severity of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic appeared to vary significantly across populations and geographic regions. We sought to investigate the variability in transmissibility of H1N1 pandemic in different health regions (including urban centres and remote, isolated communities) in the province of Manitoba, Canada. Methods The Richards model was used to fit to the daily number of laboratory-confirmed cases and estimate transmissibility (referred to as the basic reproduction number, R0), doubling times, and turning points of outbreaks in both spring and fall waves of the H1N1 pandemic in several health regions. Results We observed considerable variation in R0 estimates ranging from 1.55 to 2.24, with confidence intervals ranging from 1.45 to 2.88, for an average generation time of 2.9 days, and shorter doubling times in some remote and isolated communities compared to urban centres, suggesting a more rapid spread of disease in these communities during the first wave. For the second wave, R e , the effective reproduction number, is estimated to be lower for remote and isolated communities; however, outbreaks appear to have been driven by somewhat higher transmissibility in urban centres. Conclusions There was considerable geographic variation in transmissibility of the 2009 pandemic outbreaks. While highlighting the importance of estimating R0 for informing health responses, the findings indicate that projecting the transmissibility for large-scale epidemics may not faithfully characterize the early spread of disease in remote and isolated communities

Structural and dynamical insights on HLA-DR2 complexes that confer susceptibility to multiple sclerosis in Sardinia: a molecular dynamics simulation study

Sardinia is a major Island in the Mediterranean with a high incidence of multiple sclerosis, a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease of the central nervous system. Disease susceptibility in Sardinian population has been associated with five alleles of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II DRB1 gene. We performed 120 ns of molecular dynamics simulation on one predisposing and one protective alleles, unbound and in complex with the two relevant peptides: Myelin Basic Protein and Epstein Barr Virus derived peptide. In particular we focused on the MHC peptide binding groove dynamics. The predisposing allele was found to form a stable complex with both the peptides, while the protective allele displayed stability only when bound with myelin peptide. The local flexibility of the MHC was probed dividing the binding groove into four compartments covering the well known peptide anchoring pockets. The predisposing allele in the first half cleft exhibits a narrower and more rigid groove conformation in the presence of myelin peptide. The protective allele shows a similar behavior, while in the second half cleft it displays a narrower and more flexible groove conformation in the presence of viral peptide. We further characterized these dynamical differences by evaluating H-bonds, hydrophobic and stacking interaction networks, finding striking similarities with super-type patterns emerging in other autoimmune diseases. The protective allele shows a defined preferential binding to myelin peptide, as confirmed by binding free energy calculations. All together, we believe the presented molecular analysis could help to design experimental assays, supports the molecular mimicry hypothesis and suggests that propensity to multiple sclerosis in Sardinia could be partly linked to distinct peptide-MHC interaction and binding characteristics of the antigen presentation mechanism