Exit and Failure of Credit Unions in Brazil: A Risk Analysis

This study aims to investigate the factors that affect the market exit of Brazilian singular credit unions from 1995 to 2009; it also identifies and lists the determinants of various types of market exits and analyzes whether profitability is a significant factor for credit union survival. This study was conducted with accounting data provided by the Central Bank of Brazil, which derives only from individual cooperatives, i.e. singular credit unions. Quarterly financial statements from these credit unions that were active from 1995 to the second quarter of 2009 were employed, totaling 71,325 observations for 1,929 credit unions. Based on survival and the model of competing risks (such as the Cox, Exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, and Competing Risk models), the results show that there is no statistical evidence to ensure a correlation between profitability and credit union survival. The results also suggest that the size of credit unions plays a key role in their survival and longevity and that their funding and investment management are related to their survival and risk of market exit. In conclusion, the results confirm the initial idea that the duality inherent to credit unions - cooperative principles versus economic efficiency - might influence the stability, survival, and longevity of these institutions. Such results may also imply that a credit union embracing the rationale of a private bank will become more estranged from its members, something which will hinder its future operations and increase the likelihood of its exit from the market

The role of effective leaf mixing length in the relationship between the δ18 O of stem cellulose and source water across a salinity gradient

Previous mangrove tree ring studies attempted, unsuccessfully, to relate the δ(18) O of trunk cellulose (δ(18) O(CELL) ) to the δ(18) O of source water (δ(18) O(SW) ). Here, we tested whether biochemical fractionation associated with one of the oxygen in the cellulose glucose moiety or variation in leaf water oxygen isotope fractionation (Δ(LW) ) can interfere with the δ(18) O(SW) signal as it is recorded in the δ(18) O(CELL) of mangrove (saltwater) and hammock (freshwater) plants. We selected two transects experiencing a salinity gradient, located in the Florida Keys, USA. The δ(18) O(CELL) throughout both transects did not show the pattern expected based on that of the δ(18) O(SW) . We found that in one of the transects, biochemical fractionation interfered with the δ(18) O(SW) signal, while in the other transect Δ(LW) differed between mangrove and hammock plants. Observed differences in Δ(LW) between mangroves and hammocks were caused by a longer effective leaf mixing length (L) of the water pathway in mangrove leaves compared to those of hammock leaves. Changes in L could have caused the δ(18) O(CELL) to record not only variations in the δ(18) O(SW) but also in Δ(LW) making it impossible to isolate the δ(18) O(SW) signal