How land use/land cover changes can affect water, flooding and sedimentation in a tropical watershed: a case study using distributed modeling in the Upper Citarum watershed, Indonesia

[EN] Human activity has produced severe LULC changes within the Upper Citarum watershed and these changes are predicted to continue in the future. With an increase in population parallel to a 141% increment in urban areas, a reduction of rice fields and the replacement of forests with cultivations have been found in the past. Accordingly, LCM model was used to forecast the LULC in 2029. A distributed model called TETIS was implemented in the Upper Citarum watershed to assess the impact of the different historical and future LULC scenarios on its water and sediment cycles. This model was calibrated and validated with different LULCs. For the implementation of the sediment sub-model, it was crucial to use the bathymetric information of the reservoir located at the catchment's outlet. Deforestation and urbanization have been shown to be the most influential factors affecting the alteration of the hydrological and sedimentological processes in the Upper Citarum watershed. The change of LULC decreases evapotranspiration and as a direct consequence, the water yield increased by 15% and 40% during the periods 1994-2014 and 2014-2029, respectively. These increments are caused by the rise of three components in the runoff: overland flow, interflow and base flow. Apart from that, these changes in LULC increased the area of non-tolerable erosion from 412 km(2) in 1994 to 499 km(2) in 2029. The mean sediment yield increased from 3.1 Mton -yr(-1) in the 1994 LULC scenario to 6.7 Mton-yr(-1) in the 2029 LULC scenario. An increment of this magnitude will be catastrophic for the operation of the Saguling Dam.This study was partially funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the research projects TETISMED (CGL2014-58,127-C3-3-R) and TETISCHANGE (RTI2018-093717-B-I00). The authors are also thankful to the Directorate General of Higher Education of Indonesia (DIKTI) for the Ph.D. funding of the first author.Siswanto, SY.; Francés, F. (2019). How land use/land cover changes can affect water, flooding and sedimentation in a tropical watershed: a case study using distributed modeling in the Upper Citarum watershed, Indonesia. Environmental Earth Sciences. 78(17):1-15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8561-0S115781

Uma análise do efeito do aquecimento global na produção de batata no Brasil An analysis of the potato production in Brazil upon global warming

Face às prováveis mudanças climáticas afetando as áreas agricultáveis do planeta, foi feita uma revisão bibliográfica sobre os efeitos do aumento da temperatura no metabolismo da planta de batata, enfatizando suas consequências no desenvolvimento vegetativo e na produtividade da cultura. Embora a ênfase maior desse artigo se prenda ao efeito do clima na redução de alimentos, alerta-se ainda para o risco de erosão genética pelo desaparecimento de espécies silvestres, de grande importância para programas de melhoramento genético. A partir dessas informações e de dados climáticos das regiões produtoras publicados em literatura nacional, foi realizada uma análise prospectiva da produção de batata no Brasil. Para tal, tomou-se como base o aumento da temperatura de até 5ºC até o final deste século e uma faixa ótima de produtividade da batata de 10ºC a 25ºC, conforme indicado em literatura especializada. Foram selecionados seis municípios representando as regiões geográficas onde se cultiva a batata: São Joaquim-SC; Guarapuava-PR; Cristalina-GO; Mucugê-BA; Vargem Grande do Sul-SP e Araxá-MG. Para municípios com prevalência de temperaturas mais baixas, como São Joaquim, o aumento de temperatura preconizado não deverá restringir a produção, porém serão necessárias adequações de épocas de plantio. Por outro lado, a situação é preocupante em regiões e épocas de cultivo sujeitas a temperaturas altas, como Mucugê e Cristalina, onde o cultivo deverá se restringir a poucos meses do ano, contrastando com o plantio contínuo, durante o ano todo, ora sendo realizado. O intuito deste artigo é alertar, e não alarmar, a cadeia produtiva de batata no sentido de se preparar para os ajustes fitotécnicos visando a preservar a bataticultura nacional face a um eventual aquecimento global. Considerações sobre o melhoramento genético para atenuar, pelo menos em parte, esta situação é discutida.<br>The future of the potato production in Brazil is discussed upon prediction of temperature rise due to global warming. A literature review was carried out on the effects of high temperatures on the potato plant metabolism, and their consequences upon vegetative development and yield. Although higher emphasis was devoted to the climate effect on food production, the risk of genetic erosion by disappearance of wild species is stressed, with consequences to the future of plant breeding. Based on this information and on climate data from the main growing regions published on Brazilian documents, we carried out a prospective analysis of the potato production in Brazil. For that, a temperature rise of up to 5ºC was considered to the end of the century, and the range of 10ºC to 25ºC as the optimum for potato growth, according to specialized literature. For the study, six counties, representative of the main growing regions, were selected: São Joaquim, Santa Catarina State; Guarapuava, Paraná State; Cristalina, Goiás State; Mucugê, Bahia State; Vargem Grande do Sul, São Paulo State and Araxá, Minas Gerais State. For cooler counties, such as São Joaquim, major drawbacks on potato production are not expected, even though adjustments in planting season should be required. However, cropping on those counties subject to high temperatures which today allow potato production all year round, like Mucugê, and Cristalina, is expected to be restricted to few months of the year. The aim of this article was to alert, not alarm, the Brazilian potato chain in order to promote the management changes to preserve the crop in case the expected temperature rise comes true. In addition, the role of plant breeding to counteract the negative effects of high temperature is discussed