The Performance and Diversification Potential of Non-Listed Value-Add Real Estate Funds in Japan

Acknowledgments: The authors acknowledge the generous support of ANREV, MSCI and Real Capital Analytics in providing the necessary data for analysis. They are also grateful for the constructive comments by four reviewers.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Herding and information based trading

This paper expands on the existing literature on information asymmetry by testing if herding exists. We test herd behavior in a transparent and order-driven market using intraday data. We propose (1) a modification in the herding measure, (2) that investors tend to herd more based on fundamental analysis relative to technical analysis, and (3) that informational asymmetry can be identified by applying the informational cascade model to herding. In general, our analyses agree with the existing literature that herding tends to be more prevalent with small stocks and in economic downturns and that investors are more likely to herd when selling rather than buying stocks. Most importantly, our results reveal the existence of informational cascades, which highlights the crucial role played by so-called fashion leaders, especially when more informed investors trade with "noise".Herding Information based trading Informational cascades

What Does a Concept Attract? The Case of Gaming in Macau

This paper examines herding behavior among Hong Kong investors using announcements of the opening of new casinos in Macau. The results show that there is a difference in the herding behavior toward these “Macau concept” stocks before and after the change in investment sentiment regarding Macau. Similar results are also revealed for the impact of announcements related to the Macau concept. Furthermore, investors in general herd more on selling than on buying upon a corresponding announcement. The evidence that is documented in this paper also suggests that there is herding around exceptional price and trading volume movements in the trading of Macau concept stocks

What Does a Concept Attract? The Case of Gaming in Macau What Does a Concept Attract? The Case of Gaming in Macau What Does a Concept Attract? The Case of Gaming in Macau

Abstract This paper examines herding behavior among Hong Kong investors using announcements of the opening of new casinos in Macau. The results show that there is a difference in the herding behavior toward these "Macau concept" stocks before and after the change in investment sentiment regarding Macau. Similar results are also revealed for the impact of announcements related to the Macau concept. Furthermore, investors in general herd more on selling than on buying upon a corresponding announcement. The evidence that is documented in this paper also suggests that there is herding around exceptional price and trading volume movements in the trading of Macau concept stocks

VALUES OF MORTGAGES WITH TOP-UP PAYMENT OPTIONS

The right of lenders to request for top-ups of negative equity when the property value falls below the loan outstanding is a little known, yet widely adopted provision in mortgage documents in many Asian markets. We analyze the effect of the top-up option by appealing to a contingent claim framework. Specifically, we model the top-up option as a synthetic option comprising a long put to request for a top-up, a short put that cancels out the first option in the event of a default, and a binary put option once triggered will yield a value equivalent to the difference between the mortgage outstanding and the property value. The results of comparative analyses show that the lender's right to request for top-ups is valuable when the negative mortgage equity increases, especially in a market where price is highly volatile. The top-up clause fundamentally affects the mortgage values for both the borrower and the lender. We show that lender's inaction by not calling for top-ups when negative mortgage equity occurs is suboptimal. On the other hand, the lenders' exercise of the in-the-money top-up options may lead to early default by the mortgagor. This is one of the reasons why lenders exercise this option only very sparingly in practice. This mortgage design has economic value to the lenders, it is, however, not optimal in time of volatile market. The policy implication of the findings is that the sub-optimal top-up feature should be removed from the mortgage contract, and it will not severely jeopardize the lender's ability to enforce payments in the mortgages.Negative equity, top-up options, mortgage default

What Does a Concept Attract? The Case of Gaming in Macau

This paper examines herding behavior among Hong Kong investors using announcements of the opening of new casinos in Macau. The results show that there is a difference in the herding behavior toward these “Macau concept” stocks before and after the change in investment sentiment regarding Macau. Similar results are also revealed for the impact of announcements related to the Macau concept. Furthermore, investors in general herd more on selling than on buying upon a corresponding announcement. The evidence that is documented in this paper also suggests that there is herding around exceptional price and trading volume movements in the trading of Macau concept stocks.MACAU; HERDING; GAMING; BEHAVIORAL FINANCE

[In Press] The performance of non-listed opportunity real estate funds in China

Purpose: Opportunity real estate funds are an important style of real estate investing for institutional investors seeking nonlisted real estate exposure. Importantly, institutional investors have sought exposure to the China real estate market, often via opportunity real estate funds. This has been by a pure China opportunity real estate fund (100% China opportunity real estate) or by a pan-Asia opportunity real estate fund where China opportunity real estate was part of this pan-Asia opportunity real estate portfolio. Using two bespoke China opportunity real estate indices developed by the authors, this paper aims to assess the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of China opportunity real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio over 2008–2020. It also highlights critical issues for institutional investors going forward to factor into their real estate investment decision-making for effective China real estate exposure. Design/methodology/approach: This paper develops two bespoke China opportunity real estate fund performance indices to assess the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of China opportunity real estate funds in a mixed-asset portfolio over 2008–2020. An asset allocation diagram is used to assess the role of China opportunity real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio via both the non-listed and listed real estate investment channels. Findings: Over 2008–2020, China opportunity real estate exposure via pan-Asia opportunity real estate funds were seen to outperform pure China opportunity real estate funds. In both formats, China opportunity real estate funds were seen to have a significant role in a China mixed-asset portfolio across most of the portfolio risk spectrum; particularly compared to listed real estate exposure in China. On-going issues regarding real estate risk management in China will take on increased importance for institutional investors seeking China real estate exposure. Practical implications: Opportunity real estate funds are an important style of real estate investing, often used by institutional investors to gain non-listed real estate exposure in a developing real estate market. This style of real estate investing has been popular with institutional investors seeking exposure to China real estate as part of the China economic growth dynamic. The results of this research highlight the importance of opportunity real estate investing in China, both via a pure China opportunity real estate fund and via a pan-Asia opportunity real estate fund. Based on this empirical analysis, China opportunity real estate exposure is seen to be more effective via a pan-Asia opportunity real estate fund than a 100% China opportunity real estate fund. A range of practical China real estate investment issues are also highlighted for the effective delivery of China real estate exposure for institutional investors going forward; this particularly relates to the on-going risk management for real estate investment in China. Originality/value: This paper is the first empirical research analysis of the risk-adjusted performance of China opportunity real estate and its role in a mixed-asset portfolio. Using bespoke China opportunity real estate fund indices developed by the authors, this research enables empirically-validated, more informed and practical opportunity real estate investment decision-making regarding the strategic role of China opportunity real estate in an institutional investor's portfolio. It also highlights the importance of various facets of real estate risk management in China going forward