Testing time-sensitive influences of weather on street robbery

Although the relationship between weather and crime has been extensively investigated over the past century, little consensus has emerged on the directions of the relationships observed and the mechanisms through which weather might exert its influence. This paper advances an argument that the interpretation of weather, and subsequent activities based on that interpretation, leads to spatio-temporal variations in criminal opportunities, and hence crime. Two hypotheses relating to unseasonal weather and effects of weather on discretionary activities are proposed. Negative binomial regression models are used to test these at the 6-hour shift unit of analysis on street robberies in the Strathclyde region of Scotland. In line with predictions, in this temperate microclimate, more favourable weather in winter (higher temperatures and low wind speeds) was associated with increases in robbery. Partial support was also found for the hypothesis regarding time delineated for discretionary activities. Here, temperature, wind speed and humidity were seen to be significant predictors of robbery during the night shift and weekends. Notably rain was shown to have a negative relationship with robbery at the weekends. This affirms that people are less likely to venture outdoors when it is raining when travel behaviour is optional. Counter to our hypothesised effects, fog was the only variable to significantly interact with public holidays. We conclude by discussing how these analyses might be extended and briefly discuss implications for crime prevention

Mapping the crime reduction evidence base: a descriptive analysis of the WP1 Systematic Review Database.

This document gives some summary statistics for the sample of systematic reviews that met the WP1 inclusion criteria. These criteria are documented in the systematic review protocol for this work package. In summary, the final list of studies constituted 337 separate systematic reviews

Integrating environmental considerations into prisoner risk assessments

Reducing re-offending amongst ex-prisoners is of paramount importance for both penal and societal reasons. This paper advances an argument that the current prisoner risk assessment instruments used in the UK neglect to account for environmental determinants of re-offending. We frame this position within the growing literature on the ecology of recidivism, and use the principles of environmental criminology to stress the importance of the opportunities for crime that are present in an ex-prisoners’ neighbourhood. We conclude by considering the implications for policy and discuss how these might conflict with the practical realities of managing ex-prisoners

Updating the Crime Reduction Toolkit: A report and manual

The Crime Reduction Toolkit (CRT) is an online repository of narrative summaries of systematic reviews on crime reduction. This report details the methods used to update the CRT, outlining the systematic process and the numbers of records/items dealt with at each stage

Writing Narratives for the Crime Reduction Toolkit

This document provides step-by-step guidance, agreed by the What Works Centre for Crime Reduction (WWCCR), on the style, format and content required for the narratives on the Crime Reduction Toolkit. These narratives are based on the EMMIE framework (Johnson et al., 2015) which, amongst other things, provides a method for critically appraising systematic reviews and meta-analyses in crime reduction

Explaining temporal patterns in street robbery

This thesis is concerned with explaining spatio-temporal patterns in street robbery through the lens of environmental criminology. The research question ‘what makes a place criminogenic for street robbery at some times and not others?’ is used to frame seven hypotheses. These centre on some of the features of the natural and built environment that can be considered criminogenic (i.e. crime producing). Specifically, the hypotheses test the time-varying influence of darkness, weather conditions, and the use of land by different groups of victims. Through a variety of statistical methods, and data analyses at various micro-units of analysis, it is shown that all of these environmental features are associated with temporal patterns in police recorded street robbery in the Strathclyde area of Scotland. The findings from this research can be summarised as follows: 1) Aggregation bias is a threat to research on crime and place when micro-temporal patterns are ignored. 2) Seasonal patterns in robbery in the study area are (partly) driven by the condition of darkness. 3) Weather features exert their influence on the robbery event differentially over different seasons, days of the week and hours of day. 4) Spatio-temporal patterns in street robbery are related to facility types that are socially relevant to particular victim occupations. 5) Variations in levels of robbery seem to be strongly coupled to time periods where discretionary activities are prevalent. The micro-level approach taken in this thesis generates nuanced findings that elicit fresh insight into the characteristics of settings where street robbery concentrates. Consequently, this facilitates theorising on the mechanisms underpinning spatio-temporal concentrations in robbery. Crucially, the findings have tangible practical value in informing crime prevention activities that can be used to reduce robbery victimisation

On the development and application of EMMIE: Insights from the What Works Centre for Crime Reduction

The What Works Centre for Crime Reduction was established in September 2013 with the aim of increasing the use of research evidence by decision-makers in policing and crime reduction. The EMMIE framework was developed to meet this aim. It encapsulates five broad categories of research evidence that are considered relevant to crime reduction, namely Effect size, Mechanism, Moderator (or context), Implementation and Economics. In this paper, we chart the origins and development of EMMIE. We also reflect on our experience of applying EMMIE both as a coding system to appraise systematic review evidence and as a framework to inform the design and conduct of systematic reviews in crime reduction. We conclude with a critique of EMMIE and with suggestions on how it might be developed and refined in the future

Protocol for Work Package 1: Identifying Existing Systematic Reviews of Crime Reduction

This research will contribute to the work of the What Works Centre for Crime Reduction, hosted by the UK College of Policing. The aim of this particular review is to identify existing systematic reviews within the crime reduction area. Subsequent research will involve coding the identified reviews along a number of dimensions, to include their approach and methodological adequacy. There will also be an emphasis on understanding not simply what works, but how it works. This protocol does not detail how the latter will be accomplished but how the reviews will be identified, along with the scope of the review. This protocol and the activities undertaken under Work Package 1 (WP1) are one element of four work packages (WP1,WP3, WP4, WP5) that are devoted to answering the general research question: What can systematic review evidence tell us about the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and conditions for optimal implementation of interventions aimed at preventing and reducing crime? How can we best communicate this evidence to crime prevention practitioners