Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

MicroRNA-21 is immunosuppressive and pro-metastatic via separate mechanisms

MiR-21 was identified as a gene whose expression correlated with the extent of metastasis of murine mammary tumours. Since miR-21 is recognised as being associated with poor prognosis in cancer, we investigated its contribution to mammary tumour growth and metastasis in tumours with capacity for spontaneous metastasis. Unexpectedly, we found that suppression of miR21 activity in highly metastatic tumours resulted in regression of primary tumour growth in immunocompetent mice but did not impede growth in immunocompromised mice. Analysis of the immune infiltrate of the primary tumours at the time when the tumours started to regress revealed an influx of both CD4+ and CD8+ activated T cells and a reduction in PD-L1+ infiltrating monocytes, providing an explanation for the observed tumour regression. Loss of anti-tumour immune suppression caused by decreased miR-21 activity was confirmed by transcriptomic analysis of primary tumours. This analysis also revealed reduced expression of genes associated with cell cycle progression upon loss of miR-21 activity. A second activity of miR-21 was the promotion of metastasis as shown by the loss of metastatic capacity of miR-21 knockdown tumours established in immunocompromised mice, despite no impact on primary tumour growth. A proteomic analysis of tumour cells with altered miR-21 activity revealed deregulation of proteins known to be associated with tumour progression. The development of therapies targeting miR-21, possibly via targeted delivery to tumour cells, could be an effective therapy to combat primary tumour growth and suppress the development of metastatic disease.Lap Hing Chi, Ryan S. N. Cross, Richard P. Redvers, Melissa Davis, Soroor Hediyeh-zadeh, Suresh Mathivanan, Monisha Samuel, Erin C. Lucas, Kellie Mouchemore, Philip A. Gregory, Cameron N. Johnstone, and Robin L. Anderso

A liquid metal reaction environment for the room-temperature synthesis of atomically thin metal oxides

Two-dimensional (2D) oxides have a wide variety of applications in electronics and other technologies. However, many oxides are not easy to synthesize as 2D materials through conventional methods. We used nontoxic eutectic gallium-based alloys as a reaction solvent and co-alloyed desired metals into the melt. On the basis of thermodynamic considerations, we predicted the composition of the self-limiting interfacial oxide. We isolated the surface oxide as a 2D layer, either on substrates or in suspension. This enabled us to produce extremely thin subnanometer layers of HfO₂, Al₂O₃, and Gd₂O₃. The liquid metal–based reaction route can be used to create 2D materials that were previously inaccessible with preexisting methods. The work introduces room-temperature liquid metals as a reaction environment for the synthesis of oxide nanomaterials with low dimensionality

Supplementary Material for: Real-World Scenario Improvements in Serum Phosphorus Levels and Pill Burden in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients Treated with Sucroferric Oxyhydroxide

<b><i>Background:</i></b> A database analysis was conducted to assess the effectiveness of sucroferric oxyhydroxide (SO) on lowering serum phosphorus and phosphate binder (PB) pill burden among adult peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients prescribed SO as part of routine care. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> Adult PD patients (<i>n</i> = 258) prescribed SO through a renal pharmacy service were analyzed. Baseline was 3 months before SO prescription. SO-treated follow-up was for 6 months or until either a new PB was prescribed, SO was not refilled, PD modality changed, or patient was discharged. In-range serum phosphorus was defined as ≤5.5 mg/dL. <b><i>Results:</i></b> At baseline, mean serum phosphorus was 6.59 mg/dL with 10 prescribed PB pills/day. The proportion of patients achieving in-range serum phosphorus increased by 72% from baseline to month 6. Prescribed PB pills/day decreased by 57% (10 at baseline to 4.3 at SO follow-up, <i>p</i> < 0.0001). The mean length of SO follow-up was 5.1 months; SO follow-up ended for 38, 27, and 50 patients at months 4, 5, and 6, respectively, due to no further PB fills, and for 10, 11, and 4 patients at months 4, 5, and 6, respectively, due to another PB prescribed. In patients with baseline serum phosphorus >5.5 mg/dL who achieved in-range serum phosphorus during SO follow-up for ≥1 quarter, a notable improvement in serum phosphorus (6.54 to 5.10 mg/dL, <i>p</i> < 0.0001) was observed, and there was a 53% reduction in PB pill burden (9.9 to 4.7, <i>p</i> < 0.0001). <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> Among PD patients prescribed SO as part of routine care, improvements in serum phosphorus control and >50% reduction in PB pills/day were observed