Transient behavior in Single-File Systems

We have used Monte-Carlo methods and analytical techniques to investigate the influence of the characteristics, such as pipe length, diffusion, adsorption, desorption and reaction rates on the transient properties of Single-File Systems. The transient or the relaxation regime is the period in which the system is evolving to equilibrium. We have studied the system when all the sites are reactive and when only some of them are reactive. Comparisons between Mean-Field predictions, Cluster Approximation predictions, and Monte Carlo simulations for the relaxation time of the system are shown. We outline the cases where Mean-Field analysis gives good results compared to Dynamic Monte-Carlo results. For some specific cases we can analytically derive the relaxation time. Occupancy profiles for different distribution of the sites both for Mean-Field and simulations are compared. Different results for slow and fast reaction systems and different distribution of reactive sites are discussed.Comment: 18 pages, 19 figure

Protocol of the Berlin Long-term Observation of Vascular Events (BeLOVE): a prospective cohort study with deep phenotyping and long-term follow up of cardiovascular high-risk patients

INTRODUCTION: The Berlin Long-term Observation of Vascular Events is a prospective cohort study that aims to improve prediction and disease-overarching mechanistic understanding of cardiovascular (CV) disease progression by comprehensively investigating a high-risk patient population with different organ manifestations. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A total of 8000 adult patients will be recruited who have either suffered an acute CV event (CVE) requiring hospitalisation or who have not experienced a recent acute CVE but are at high CV risk. An initial study examination is performed during the acute treatment phase of the index CVE or after inclusion into the chronic high risk arm. Deep phenotyping is then performed after ~90 days and includes assessments of the patient's medical history, health status and behaviour, cardiovascular, nutritional, metabolic, and anthropometric parameters, and patient-related outcome measures. Biospecimens are collected for analyses including 'OMICs' technologies (e.g., genomics, metabolomics, proteomics). Subcohorts undergo MRI of the brain, heart, lung and kidney, as well as more comprehensive metabolic, neurological and CV examinations. All participants are followed up for up to 10 years to assess clinical outcomes, primarily major adverse CVEs and patient-reported (value-based) outcomes. State-of-the-art clinical research methods, as well as emerging techniques from systems medicine and artificial intelligence, will be used to identify associations between patient characteristics, longitudinal changes and outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin ethics committee (EA1/066/17). The results of the study will be disseminated through international peer-reviewed publications and congress presentations. STUDY REGISTRATION: First study phase: Approved WHO primary register: German Clinical Trials Register: https://drks.de/search/de/trial/DRKS00016852; WHO International Clinical Registry Platform: http://apps.who.int/trialsearch/Trial2.aspx?TrialID=DRKS00016852. Recruitment started on July 18, 2017.Second study phase: Approved WHO primary register: German Clinical Trials Register DRKS00023323, date of registration: November 4, 2020, URL: http://www.drks.de/ DRKS00023323. Recruitment started on January 1, 2021

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Prevalence and characteristics of gastroesophageal reflux disease in pregnant women

Introduction and aims: The prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) has been reported to be increasing in recent years. However, there have been few reports on the prevalence of GERD during pregnancy in the Asian population. The aim of our study was to evaluate the prevalence and characteristics of GERD in Vietnamese pregnant women. Materials and methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted at the antenatal clinic of the Nhan Dan Gia Dinh Hospital, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Four hundred females, at various stages of pregnancy, were enrolled. GERD was diagnosed if there was troublesome heartburn and/or acid regurgitation, at least once a week, during the current pregnancy. Results: The overall prevalence of GERD in pregnancy was 38.5% (154/400). The prevalence of GERD in the third trimester was significantly higher than that in the second trimester (46.8% vs. 30.7%, P = 0.008) and tended to be higher than its prevalence in the first trimester (46.8% vs. 35.4%, P = 0.051). In the pregnant women with GERD, the frequency of regurgitation was significantly higher than that of heartburn (92.9% vs. 30.5%, P < 0.001). Those typical symptoms were more prevalent in the daytime, compared with nighttime. Conclusion: Our study showed that GERD was prevalent during pregnancy in Vietnam. In the pregnant women with GERD, regurgitation was much more common than heartburn, and those typical reflux symptoms occurred more frequently in the daytime, compared with nighttime. Resumen: Introducción y objetivos: La prevalencia de la enfermedad por reflujo gastroesofágico (ERGE) ha aumentado en los últimos años. Sin embargo, hay pocos informes sobre el predominio de esta afección durante el embarazo en la población asiática. Nuestro objetivo fue evaluar la prevalencia y las características de la ERGE entre las mujeres embarazadas vietnamitas. Material y métodos: Este estudio transversal se llevó a cabo en el Hospital Nhan Dan Gia Din, en Vietnam. Se incluyó a 400 mujeres embarazadas en distintas fases del embarazo. La manera de diagnosticar la ERGE fue la observación de presencia de pirosis molesta o regurgitación ácida al menos una vez a la semana durante el embarazo. Resultados: La prevalencia de ERGE en el embarazo fue del 38,5% (154/400). Esa prevalencia en el tercer trimestre fue mayor que en el segundo trimestre (46,8 frente a 30,7%; p = 0,008) y tendió a ser mayor que en el primer trimestre (46,8 frente a 35,4%; p = 0,051). La frecuencia de regurgitación fue mayor que la de pirosis (92,9 vs. 30,5%; p < 0,001). Estos síntomas típicos se manifestaron con mayor frecuencia durante el día que durante la noche. Conclusiones: Nuestro estudio demostró que la ERGE era prevalente en el embarazo en Vietnam. Entre las mujeres embarazadas con ERGE, la regurgitación era mucho más común que la pirosis y estos síntomas típicos de reflujo ocurrían con más frecuencia durante el día que durante la noche