An Empirical Reevaluation of Streamflow Recession Analysis at the Continental Scale

Streamflow recession analysis is a widely used hydrologic tool that uses readily available discharge measurements to estimate otherwise unmeasurable watershed-scale properties, predict low flows, and parameterize many lumped hydrologic models. Traditional methods apply the simplifying assumptions of outflow from a Boussinesq aquifer, which predicts the slope of the recession curve relating streamflow to its derivative in log-log space to decrease from early-stage to late-stage recession. However, this prediction has not been validated in actual watersheds. Also, recent studies have shown that slopes of observed recession events are often much greater than traditional methods that predict with data point clouds. We analyze recession behavior of 1,027 streams from across the continental United States for periods of 10 to 118 years, identifying over 155,000 individual recession events. We find that the average slope of observed recession events is greater than that of the point cloud for all streams. Further, recession slopes of observed events decrease with time in only 10% of cases and instead increase with time in 74% of cases. We identify only nine watersheds where observed streamflow behavior often conforms to the predictions of traditional recession analysis, each of which is arid and flat with low permeability. Analysis of our extensive empirical results with a regionalization of catchment hydrologic characteristics indicates that heterogeneity of subsurface flow paths increases the nonlinearity and convexity of observed recession, likely as a function of watershed memory. The practical implications of our analysis are that streamflow is more stable during periods of extended drought than generally predicted

Streamflow distribution of non-point source nitrogen export from urban-rural catchments in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Nitrogen (N) export from urban and urbanizing watersheds is a major contributor to water quality degradation and eutrophication of receiving water bodies. Methods to reduce N exports using best management practices (BMP) have targeted both source reduction and hydrologic flow path retention. Stream restoration is a BMP targeted to multiple purposes but includes increasing flow path retention to improve water quality. As restorations are typically most effective at lower discharge rates with longer residence times, distribution of N load by stream discharge is a significant influence on catchment nitrogen retention. We explore impacts of urbanization on magnitude and export flow distribution of nitrogen along an urban-rural gradient in a set of catchments studied by the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES). We test the hypotheses that N export magnitude increases and cumulative N export shifts to higher, less frequent discharge with catchment urbanization. We find that increasing development in watersheds is associated with shifts in nitrogen export toward higher discharge, while total magnitude of export does not show as strong a trend. Forested reference, low-density suburban, and agricultural catchments export most of the total nitrogen (TN) and nitrate (NO3-) loads at relatively low flows. More urbanized sites export TN and NO 3- at higher and less frequent flows. The greatest annual loads of nitrogen are from less developed agricultural and low-density residential (suburban/exurban) areas; the latter is the most rapidly growing land use in expanding metropolitan areas. A simple statistical model relating export distribution metrics to impervious surface area is then used to extrapolate parameters of the N export distribution across the Gwynns Falls watershed in Baltimore County. This spatial extrapolation has potential applications as a tool for predictive mapping of variations in export distribution and targeting stream channel restoration efforts at the watershed scale

Hillslope Hydrology in Global Change Research and Earth System Modeling

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding and predicting global change, but they cannot explicitly resolve hillslope‐scale terrain structures that fundamentally organize water, energy, and biogeochemical stores and fluxes at subgrid scales. Here we bring together hydrologists, Critical Zone scientists, and ESM developers, to explore how hillslope structures may modulate ESM grid‐level water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. In contrast to the one‐dimensional (1‐D), 2‐ to 3‐mdeep, and free‐draining soil hydrology in most ESM land models, we hypothesize that 3‐D, lateral ridge‐to‐valley flow through shallow and deep paths and insolation contrasts between sunny and shady slopes are the top two globally quantifiable organizers of water and energy (and vegetation) within an ESM grid cell. We hypothesize that these two processes are likely to impact ESM predictions where (and when) water and/or energy are limiting. We further hypothesize that, if implemented in ESM land models, these processes will increase simulated continental water storage and residence time, buffering terrestrial ecosystems against seasonal and interannual droughts. We explore efficient ways to capture these mechanisms in ESMs and identify critical knowledge gaps preventing us from scaling up hillslope to global processes. One such gap is our extremely limited knowledge of the subsurface, where water is stored (supporting vegetation) and released to stream baseflow (supporting aquatic ecosystems). We conclude with a set of organizing hypotheses and a call for global syntheses activities and model experiments to assess the impact of hillslope hydrology on global change predictions

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease