A SuperLearner-enforced approach for the estimation of treatment effect in pediatric trials

Background: Randomized Clinical Trials (RCT) represent the gold standard among scientific evidence. RCTs are tailored to control selection bias and the confounding effect of baseline characteristics on the effect of treatment. However, trial conduction and enrolment procedures could be challenging, especially for rare diseases and paediatric research. In these research frameworks, the treatment effect estimation could be compromised. A potential countermeasure is to develop predictive models on the probability of the baseline disease based on previously collected observational data. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have recently become attractive in clinical research because of their flexibility and improved performance compared to standard statistical methods in developing predictive models. Objective: This manuscript proposes an ML-enforced treatment effect estimation procedure based on an ensemble SuperLearner (SL) approach, trained on historical observational data, to control the confounding effect. Methods: The REnal SCarring Urinary infEction trial served as a motivating example. Historical observational study data have been simulated through 10,000 Monte Carlo (MC) runs. Hypothetical RCTs have been also simulated, for each MC run, assuming different treatment effects of antibiotics combined with steroids. For each MC simulation, the SL tool has been applied to the simulated observational data. Furthermore, the average treatment effect (ATE), has been estimated on the trial data and adjusted for the SL predicted probability of renal scar. Results: The simulation results revealed an increased power in ATE estimation for the SL-enforced estimation compared to the unadjusted estimates for all the algorithms composing the ensemble SL

A Bayesian Sample Size Estimation Procedure Based on a B-Splines Semiparametric Elicitation Method

Sample size estimation is a fundamental element of a clinical trial, and a binomial experiment is the most common situation faced in clinical trial design. A Bayesian method to determine sample size is an alternative solution to a frequentist design, especially for studies conducted on small sample sizes. The Bayesian approach uses the available knowledge, which is translated into a prior distribution, instead of a point estimate, to perform the final inference. This procedure takes the uncertainty in data prediction entirely into account. When objective data, historical information, and literature data are not available, it may be indispensable to use expert opinion to derive the prior distribution by performing an elicitation process. Expert elicitation is the process of translating expert opinion into a prior probability distribution. We investigated the estimation of a binomial sample size providing a generalized version of the average length, coverage criteria, and worst outcome criterion. The original method was proposed by Joseph and is defined in a parametric framework based on a Beta-Binomial model. We propose a more flexible approach for binary data sample size estimation in this theoretical setting by considering parametric approaches (Beta priors) and semiparametric priors based on B-splines

Pediatric Injury Surveillance From Uncoded Emergency Department Admission Records in Italy: Machine Learning-Based Text-Mining Approach

Background: Unintentional injury is the leading cause of death in young children. Emergency department (ED) diagnoses are a useful source of information for injury epidemiological surveillance purposes. However, ED data collection systems often use free-text fields to report patient diagnoses. Machine learning techniques (MLTs) are powerful tools for automatic text classification. The MLT system is useful to improve injury surveillance by speeding up the manual free-text coding tasks of ED diagnoses. Objective: This research aims to develop a tool for automatic free-text classification of ED diagnoses to automatically identify injury cases. The automatic classification system also serves for epidemiological purposes to identify the burden of pediatric injuries in Padua, a large province in the Veneto region in the Northeast Italy. Methods: The study includes 283, 468 pediatric admissions between 2007 and 2018 to the Padova University Hospital ED, a large referral center in Northern Italy. Each record reports a diagnosis by free text. The records are standard tools for reporting patient diagnoses. An expert pediatrician manually classified a randomly extracted sample of approximately 40, 000 diagnoses. This study sample served as the gold standard to train an MLT classifier. After preprocessing, a document-term matrix was created. The machine learning classifiers, including decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting method (GBM), and support vector machine (SVM), were tuned by 4-fold cross-validation. The injury diagnoses were classified into 3 hierarchical classification tasks, as follows: injury versus noninjury (task A), intentional versus unintentional injury (task B), and type of unintentional injury (task C), according to the World Health Organization classification of injuries. Results: The SVM classifier achieved the highest performance accuracy (94.14%) in classifying injury versus noninjury cases (task A). The GBM method produced the best results (92% accuracy) for the unintentional and intentional injury classification task (task B). The highest accuracy for the unintentional injury subclassification (task C) was achieved by the SVM classifier. The SVM, random forest, and GBM algorithms performed similarly against the gold standard across different tasks. Conclusions: This study shows that MLTs are promising techniques for improving epidemiological surveillance, allowing for the automatic classification of pediatric ED free-text diagnoses. The MLTs revealed a suitable classification performance, especially for general injuries and intentional injury classification. This automatic classification could facilitate the epidemiological surveillance of pediatric injuries by also reducing the health professionals' efforts in manually classifying diagnoses for research purposes

Effect of awake prone position on diaphragmatic thickening fraction in patients assisted by noninvasive ventilation for hypoxemic acute respiratory failure related to novel coronavirus disease

Background: Awake prone position is an emerging rescue therapy applied in patients undergoing noninvasive ventilation (NIV) for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (ARF) related to novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Although applied to stabilize respiratory status, in awake patients, the application of prone position may reduce comfort with a consequent increase in the workload imposed on respiratory muscles. Thus, we primarily ascertained the effect of awake prone position on diaphragmatic thickening fraction, assessed through ultrasound, in COVID-19 patients undergoing NIV. Methods: We enrolled all COVID-19 adult critically ill patients, admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) for hypoxemic ARF and undergoing NIV, deserving of awake prone positioning as a rescue therapy. Exclusion criteria were pregnancy and any contraindication to awake prone position and NIV. On ICU admission, after NIV onset, in supine position, and at 1\ua0h following awake prone position application, diaphragmatic thickening fraction was obtained on the right side. Across all the study phases, NIV was maintained with the same setting present at study entry. Vital signs were monitored throughout the entire study period. Comfort was assessed through numerical rating scale (0 the worst comfort and 10 the highest comfort level). Data were presented in median and 25th\u201375th percentile range. Results: From February to May 2021, 20 patients were enrolled and finally analyzed. Despite peripheral oxygen saturation improvement [96 (94\u201397)% supine vs 98 (96\u201399)% prone, p = 0.008], turning to prone position induced a worsening in comfort score from 7.0 (6.0\u20138.0) to 6.0 (5.0\u20137.0) (p = 0.012) and an increase in diaphragmatic thickening fraction from 33.3 (25.7\u201340.5)% to 41.5 (29.8\u201350.0)% (p = 0.025). Conclusions: In our COVID-19 patients assisted by NIV in ICU, the application of awake prone position improved the oxygenation at the expense of a greater diaphragmatic thickening fraction compared to supine position. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT04904731. Registered on 05/25/2021, retrospectively registered. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04904731

Oral steroids for reducing kidney scarring in young children with febrile urinary tract infections: the contribution of Bayesian analysis to a randomized trial not reaching its intended sample size

Background: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of oral dexamethasone in reducing kidney scars in infants with a first febrile urinary tract infection (UTI). Methods: Children aged between 2 and 24 months with their first presumed UTI, at high risk for kidney scarring based on procalcitonin levels ( 651 ng/mL), were randomly assigned to receive dexamethasone in addition to routine care or routine care only. Kidney scars were identified by kidney scan at 6 months after initial UTI. Projections of enrollment and follow-up completion showed that the intended sample size could not be reached before funding and time to complete the study ran out. An amendment to the protocol was approved to conduct a Bayesian analysis. Results: We randomized 48 children, of whom 42 had a UTI and 18 had outcome kidney scans (instead of 128 planned). Kidney scars were found in 0/7 and 2/11 patients in the treatment and control groups respectively. The probability that dexamethasone could prevent kidney scarring was 99% in the setting of an informative prior probability distribution (which fully incorporated in the final inference the information on treatment effect provided by previous studies) and 98% in the low-informative scenario (which discounted the prior literature information by 50%). The probabilities that dexamethasone could reduce kidney scar formation by up to 20% were 61% and 53% in the informative and low-informative scenario, respectively. Conclusions: Dexamethasone is highly likely to reduce kidney scarring, with a more than 50% probability to reduce kidney scars by up to 20%. Trial registration number: EudraCT number: 2013-000388-10; registered in 2013 (prospectively registered) Graphical Abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Body composition parameters, immunonutritional indexes, and surgical outcome of pancreatic cancer patients resected after neoadjuvant therapy: A retrospective, multicenter analysis

Background and aims: Body composition parameters and immunonutritional indexes provide useful information on the nutritional and inflammatory status of patients. We sought to investigate whether they predict the postoperative outcome in patients with pancreatic cancer (PC) who received neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) and then pancreaticoduodenectomy. Methods: Data from locally advanced PC patients who underwent NAT followed by pancreaticoduodenectomy between January 2012 and December 2019 in four high-volume institutions were collected retrospectively. Only patients with two available CT scans (before and after NAT) and immunonutritional indexes (before surgery) available were included. Body composition was assessed and immunonutritional indexes collected were: VAT, SAT, SMI, SMA, PLR, NLR, LMR, and PNI. The postoperative outcomes evaluated were overall morbidity (any complication occurring), major complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ 3), and length of stay. Results: One hundred twenty-one patients met the inclusion criteria and constituted the study population. The median age at the diagnosis was 64 years (IQR16), and the median BMI was 24 kg/m2 (IQR 4.1). The median time between the two CT-scan examined was 188 days (IQR 48). Skeletal muscle index (SMI) decreased after NAT, with a median delta of −7.8 cm2/m2 (p < 0.05). Major complications occurred more frequently in patients with a lower pre-NAT SMI (p = 0.035) and in those who gained in subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) compartment during NAT (p = 0.043). Patients with a gain in SMI experienced fewer major postoperative complications (p = 0.002). The presence of Low muscle mass after NAT was associated with a longer hospital stay [Beta 5.1, 95%CI (1.5, 8.7), p = 0.006]. An increase in SMI from 35 to 40 cm2/m2 was a protective factor with respect to overall postoperative complications [OR 0.43, 95% (CI 0.21, 0.86), p < 0.001]. None of the immunonutritional indexes investigated predicted the postoperative outcome. Conclusion: Body composition changes during NAT are associated with surgical outcome in PC patients who receive pancreaticoduodenectomy after NAT. An increase in SMI during NAT should be favored to ameliorate the postoperative outcome. Immunonutritional indexes did not show to be capable of predicting the surgical outcome

Cumulative asbestos exposure and mortality from asbestos related diseases in a pooled analysis of 21 asbestos cement cohorts in Italy

Background: Despite the available information on cancer risk, asbestos is used in large areas in the world, mostly in the production of asbestos cement. Moreover, questions are raised regarding the shape of the dose response relation, the relation with time since exposure and the association with neoplasms in various organs. We conducted a study on the relationship between cumulative asbestos exposure and mortality from asbestos related diseases in a large Italian pool of 21 cohorts of asbestos-cement workers with protracted exposure to both chrysotile and amphibole asbestos. Methods: The cohort included 13,076 workers, 81.9% men and 18.1% women, working in 21 Italian asbestos-cement factories, with over 40 years of observation. Exposure was estimated by plant and period, and weighted for the type of asbestos used. Data were analysed with consideration of cause of death, cumulative exposure and time since first exposure (TSFE), and by gender. SMRs were computed using reference rates by region, gender and calendar time. Poisson regression models including cubic splines were used to analyse the effect of cumulative exposure to asbestos and TSFE on mortality for asbestos-related diseases. 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were computed according to the Poisson distribution. Results: Mortality was significantly increased for ‘All Causes’ and ‘All Malignant Neoplasm (MN)’, in both genders. Considering asbestos related diseases (ARDs), statistically significant excesses were observed for MN of peritoneum (SMR: men 14.19; women 15.14), pleura (SMR: 22.35 and 48.10), lung (SMR: 1.67 and 1.67), ovary (in the highest exposure class SMR 2.45), and asbestosis (SMR: 507 and 1023). Mortality for ARDs, in particular pleural and peritoneal malignancies, lung cancer, ovarian cancer and asbestosis increased monotonically with cumulative exposure. Pleural MN mortality increased progressively in the first 40 years of TSFE, then reached a plateau, while peritoneal MN showed a continuous increase. The trend of lung cancer SMRs also showed a flattening after 40 years of TSFE. Attributable proportions for pleural, peritoneal, and lung MN were respectively 96, 93 and 40%. Conclusions: Mortality for ARDs was associated with cumulative exposure to asbestos. Risk of death from pleural MN did not increase indefinitely with TSFE but eventually reached a plateau, consistently with reports from other recent studie

Italian pool of asbestos workers cohorts: asbestos related mortality by industrial sector and cumulative exposure

Objective. Italy has been a large user of asbestos and asbestos containing materials until the 1992 ban. We present a pooled cohort study on long-term mortality in exposed workers. Methods. Pool of 43 Italian asbestos cohorts (asbestos cement, rolling stock, shipbuilding, glasswork, harbors, insulation and other industries). SMRs were computed by industrial sector for the 1970-2010 period, for the major causes, using reference rates by age, sex, region and calendar period. Results. The study included 51 801 subjects (5741 women): 55.9% alive, 42.6% died (cause known for 95%) and 1.5% lost to follow-up. Asbestos exposure was estimated at the plant and period levels. Asbestos related mortality was significantly increased. All industrial sectors showed increased mortality from pleural malignancies, and most als

Pediatric Moyamoya Disease and Syndrome in Italy: A Multicenter Cohort

Background: Moyamoya is a rare progressive cerebral arteriopathy, occurring as an isolated phenomenon (moyamoya disease, MMD) or associated with other conditions (moyamoya syndrome, MMS), responsible for 6–10% of all childhood strokes and transient ischemic attacks (TIAs). Methods: We conducted a retrospective multicenter study on pediatric-onset MMD/MMS in Italy in order to characterize disease presentation, course, management, neuroradiology, and outcome in a European country. Results: A total of 65 patients (34/65 women) with MMD (27/65) or MMS (38/65) were included. About 18% (12/65) of patients were asymptomatic and diagnosed incidentally during investigations performed for an underlying condition (incMMS), whereas 82% (53/65) of patients with MMD or MMS were diagnosed due to the presence of neurological symptoms (symptMMD/MMS). Of these latter, before diagnosis, 66% (43/65) of patients suffered from cerebrovascular events with or without other manifestations (ischemic stroke 42%, 27/65; TIA 32%, 21/65; and no hemorrhagic strokes), 18% (12/65) of them reported headache (in 4/12 headache was not associated with any other manifestation), and 26% (17/65) of them experienced multiple phenotypes (≥2 among: stroke/TIA/seizures/headache/others). Neuroradiology disclosed ≥1 ischemic lesion in 67% (39/58) of patients and posterior circulation involvement in 51% (30/58) of them. About 73% (47/64) of patients underwent surgery, and 69% (45/65) of them received aspirin, but after diagnosis, further stroke events occurred in 20% (12/61) of them, including operated patients (11%, 5/47). Between symptom onset and last follow-up, the overall patient/year incidence of stroke was 10.26% (IC 95% 7.58–13.88%). At last follow-up (median 4 years after diagnosis, range 0.5–15), 43% (26/61) of patients had motor deficits, 31% (19/61) of them had intellectual disability, 13% (8/61) of them had epilepsy, 11% (7/61) of them had behavioral problems, and 25% (13/52) of them had mRS > 2. The proportion of final mRS > 2 was significantly higher in patients with symptMMD/MMS than in patients with incMMS (p = 0.021). Onset age <4 years and stroke before diagnosis were significantly associated with increased risk of intellectual disability (p = 0.0010 and p = 0.0071, respectively) and mRS > 2 at follow-up (p = 0.0106 and p = 0.0009, respectively). Conclusions: Moyamoya is a severe condition that may affect young children and frequently cause cerebrovascular events throughout the disease course, but may also manifest with multiple and non-cerebrovascular clinical phenotypes including headache (isolated or associated with other manifestations), seizures, and movement disorder. Younger onset age and stroke before diagnosis may associate with increased risk of worse outcome (final mRS > 2)

Effect of Lactoferrin on Clinical Outcomes of Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: The LAC Randomized Clinical Trial

As lactoferrin is a nutritional supplement with proven antiviral and immunomodulatory abilities, it may be used to improve the clinical course of COVID-19. The clinical efficacy and safety of bovine lactoferrin were evaluated in the LAC randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial. A total of 218 hospitalized adult patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 were randomized to receive 800 mg/die oral bovine lactoferrin (n = 113) or placebo (n = 105), both given in combination with standard COVID-19 therapy. No differences in lactoferrin vs. placebo were observed in the primary outcomes: the proportion of death or intensive care unit admission (risk ratio of 1.06 (95% CI 0.63–1.79)) or proportion of discharge or National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) ≤ 2 within 14 days from enrollment (RR of 0.85 (95% CI 0.70–1.04)). Lactoferrin showed an excellent safety and tolerability profile. Even though bovine lactoferrin is safe and tolerable, our results do not support its use in hospitalized patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19