308 research outputs found
Simulation of an 1857-like Mw 7.9 San Andreas Fault Earthquake and the Response of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings in Southern California – A Prototype Study
In 1857, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 occurred on the San Andreas fault, starting at Parkfield and rupturing
in a southeasterly direction for more than 360 km. Such a unilateral rupture produces significant directivity
toward the San Fernando and Los Angeles basins. The strong shaking in the basins due to this earthquake
would have had significant long-period content (2-8 s), and the objective of this study is to quantify the impact
of such an earthquake on two 18-story steel moment frame building models, hypothetically located at 636 sites
on a 3.5 km grid in southern California. End-to-end simulations include modeling the source and rupture of a
fault at one end, numerically propagating the seismic waves through the earth structure, simulating the damage
to engineered structures and estimating the economic impact at the other end using high-performance computing.
In this prototype study, we use an inferred finite source model of the magnitude 7.9, 2002 Denali fault
earthquake in Alaska, and map it onto the San Andreas fault with the rupture originating at Parkfield and
propagating southward over a distance of 290 km. Using the spectral element seismic wave propagation code,
SPECFEM3D, we simulate an 1857-like earthquake on the San Andreas fault and compute ground motions at
the 636 analysis sites. Using the nonlinear structural analysis program, FRAME3D, we subsequently analyze
3-D structural models of an existing tall steel building designed using the 1982 Uniform Building Code (UBC),
as well as one designed according to the 1997 UBC, subjected to the computed ground motion at each of these
sites. We summarize the performance of these structural models on contour maps of peak interstory drift.
We then perform an economic loss analysis for the two buildings at each site, using the Matlab Damage and
Loss Analysis (MDLA) toolbox developed to implement the PEER loss-estimation methodology. The toolbox
includes damage prediction and repair cost estimation for structural and non-structural components and allows
for the computation of the mean and variance of building repair costs conditional on engineering demand
parameters (i.e. inter-story drift ratios and peak floor accelerations). Here, we modify it to treat steel-frame
high-rises, including aspects such as mechanical, electrical and plumbing systems, traction elevators, and the
possibility of irreparable structural damage. We then generate contour plots of conditional mean losses for the
San Fernando and the Los Angeles basins for the pre-Northridge and modern code-designed buildings, allowing
for comparison of the economic effects of the updated code for the scenario event. In principle, by simulating
multiple seismic events, consistent with the probabilistic seismic hazard for a building site, the same basic
approach could be used to quantify the uncertain losses from future earthquakes
Real-time Loss Estimation for Instrumented Buildings
Motivation. A growing number of buildings have been instrumented to measure and record
earthquake motions and to transmit these records to seismic-network data centers to be archived and
disseminated for research purposes. At the same time, sensors are growing smaller, less expensive to
install, and capable of sensing and transmitting other environmental parameters in addition to
acceleration. Finally, recently developed performance-based earthquake engineering methodologies
employ structural-response information to estimate probabilistic repair costs, repair durations, and
other metrics of seismic performance. The opportunity presents itself therefore to combine these
developments into the capability to estimate automatically in near-real-time the probabilistic seismic
performance of an instrumented building, shortly after the cessation of strong motion. We refer to
this opportunity as (near-) real-time loss estimation (RTLE).
Methodology. This report presents a methodology for RTLE for instrumented buildings. Seismic
performance is to be measured in terms of probabilistic repair cost, precise location of likely physical
damage, operability, and life-safety. The methodology uses the instrument recordings and a Bayesian
state-estimation algorithm called a particle filter to estimate the probabilistic structural response of
the system, in terms of member forces and deformations. The structural response estimate is then
used as input to component fragility functions to estimate the probabilistic damage state of structural
and nonstructural components. The probabilistic damage state can be used to direct structural
engineers to likely locations of physical damage, even if they are concealed behind architectural
finishes. The damage state is used with construction cost-estimation principles to estimate
probabilistic repair cost. It is also used as input to a quantified, fuzzy-set version of the FEMA-356
performance-level descriptions to estimate probabilistic safety and operability levels.
CUREE demonstration building. The procedure for estimating damage locations, repair costs, and
post-earthquake safety and operability is illustrated in parallel demonstrations by CUREE and
Kajima research teams. The CUREE demonstration is performed using a real 1960s-era, 7-story, nonductile
reinforced-concrete moment-frame building located in Van Nuys, California. The building is
instrumented with 16 channels at five levels: ground level, floors 2, 3, 6, and the roof. We used the
records obtained after the 1994 Northridge earthquake to hindcast performance in that earthquake.
The building is analyzed in its condition prior to the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. It is found that,
while hindcasting of the overall system performance level was excellent, prediction of detailed damage
locations was poor, implying that either actual conditions differed substantially from those shown on
the structural drawings, or inappropriate fragility functions were employed, or both. We also found
that Bayesian updating of the structural model using observed structural response above the base of
the building adds little information to the performance prediction. The reason is probably that
Real-Time Loss Estimation for Instrumented Buildings
ii
structural uncertainties have only secondary effect on performance uncertainty, compared with the
uncertainty in assembly damageability as quantified by their fragility functions. The implication is
that real-time loss estimation is not sensitive to structural uncertainties (saving costly multiple
simulations of structural response), and that real-time loss estimation does not benefit significantly
from installing measuring instruments other than those at the base of the building.
Kajima demonstration building. The Kajima demonstration is performed using a real 1960s-era
office building in Kobe, Japan. The building, a 7-story reinforced-concrete shearwall building, was not
instrumented in the 1995 Kobe earthquake, so instrument recordings are simulated. The building is
analyzed in its condition prior to the earthquake. It is found that, while hindcasting of the overall
repair cost was excellent, prediction of detailed damage locations was poor, again implying either that
as-built conditions differ substantially from those shown on structural drawings, or that
inappropriate fragility functions were used, or both. We find that the parameters of the detailed
particle filter needed significant tuning, which would be impractical in actual application. Work is
needed to prescribe values of these parameters in general.
Opportunities for implementation and further research. Because much of the cost of applying
this RTLE algorithm results from the cost of instrumentation and the effort of setting up a structural
model, the readiest application would be to instrumented buildings whose structural models are
already available, and to apply the methodology to important facilities. It would be useful to study
under what conditions RTLE would be economically justified. Two other interesting possibilities for
further study are (1) to update performance using readily observable damage; and (2) to quantify the
value of information for expensive inspections, e.g., if one inspects a connection with a modeled 50%
failure probability and finds that the connect is undamaged, is it necessary to examine one with 10%
failure probability
An Assessment to Benchmark the Seismic Performance of a Code-Conforming Reinforced-Concrete Moment-Frame Building
This report describes a state-of-the-art performance-based earthquake engineering methodology
that is used to assess the seismic performance of a four-story reinforced concrete (RC) office
building that is generally representative of low-rise office buildings constructed in highly seismic
regions of California. This “benchmark” building is considered to be located at a site in the Los
Angeles basin, and it was designed with a ductile RC special moment-resisting frame as its
seismic lateral system that was designed according to modern building codes and standards. The
building’s performance is quantified in terms of structural behavior up to collapse, structural and
nonstructural damage and associated repair costs, and the risk of fatalities and their associated
economic costs. To account for different building configurations that may be designed in
practice to meet requirements of building size and use, eight structural design alternatives are
used in the performance assessments.
Our performance assessments account for important sources of uncertainty in the ground
motion hazard, the structural response, structural and nonstructural damage, repair costs, and
life-safety risk. The ground motion hazard characterization employs a site-specific probabilistic
seismic hazard analysis and the evaluation of controlling seismic sources (through
disaggregation) at seven ground motion levels (encompassing return periods ranging from 7 to
2475 years). Innovative procedures for ground motion selection and scaling are used to develop
acceleration time history suites corresponding to each of the seven ground motion levels.
Structural modeling utilizes both “fiber” models and “plastic hinge” models. Structural
modeling uncertainties are investigated through comparison of these two modeling approaches,
and through variations in structural component modeling parameters (stiffness, deformation
capacity, degradation, etc.). Structural and nonstructural damage (fragility) models are based on
a combination of test data, observations from post-earthquake reconnaissance, and expert
opinion. Structural damage and repair costs are modeled for the RC beams, columns, and slabcolumn connections. Damage and associated repair costs are considered for some nonstructural
building components, including wallboard partitions, interior paint, exterior glazing, ceilings,
sprinkler systems, and elevators. The risk of casualties and the associated economic costs are
evaluated based on the risk of structural collapse, combined with recent models on earthquake
fatalities in collapsed buildings and accepted economic modeling guidelines for the value of
human life in loss and cost-benefit studies.
The principal results of this work pertain to the building collapse risk, damage and repair
cost, and life-safety risk. These are discussed successively as follows.
When accounting for uncertainties in structural modeling and record-to-record variability
(i.e., conditional on a specified ground shaking intensity), the structural collapse probabilities of
the various designs range from 2% to 7% for earthquake ground motions that have a 2%
probability of exceedance in 50 years (2475 years return period). When integrated with the
ground motion hazard for the southern California site, the collapse probabilities result in mean
annual frequencies of collapse in the range of [0.4 to 1.4]x10
-4
for the various benchmark
building designs. In the development of these results, we made the following observations that
are expected to be broadly applicable:
(1) The ground motions selected for performance simulations must consider spectral
shape (e.g., through use of the epsilon parameter) and should appropriately account for
correlations between motions in both horizontal directions;
(2) Lower-bound component models, which are commonly used in performance-based
assessment procedures such as FEMA 356, can significantly bias collapse analysis results; it is
more appropriate to use median component behavior, including all aspects of the component
model (strength, stiffness, deformation capacity, cyclic deterioration, etc.);
(3) Structural modeling uncertainties related to component deformation capacity and
post-peak degrading stiffness can impact the variability of calculated collapse probabilities and
mean annual rates to a similar degree as record-to-record variability of ground motions.
Therefore, including the effects of such structural modeling uncertainties significantly increases
the mean annual collapse rates. We found this increase to be roughly four to eight times relative
to rates evaluated for the median structural model;
(4) Nonlinear response analyses revealed at least six distinct collapse mechanisms, the
most common of which was a story mechanism in the third story (differing from the multi-story
mechanism predicted by nonlinear static pushover analysis);
(5) Soil-foundation-structure interaction effects did not significantly affect the structural
response, which was expected given the relatively flexible superstructure and stiff soils.
The potential for financial loss is considerable. Overall, the calculated expected annual
losses (EAL) are in the range of 97,000 for the various code-conforming benchmark
building designs, or roughly 1% of the replacement cost of the building (3.5M, the fatality rate translates to an EAL due to
fatalities of 5,600 for the code-conforming designs, and 66,000, the monetary value associated with life loss is small,
suggesting that the governing factor in this respect will be the maximum permissible life-safety
risk deemed by the public (or its representative government) to be appropriate for buildings.
Although the focus of this report is on one specific building, it can be used as a reference
for other types of structures. This report is organized in such a way that the individual core
chapters (4, 5, and 6) can be read independently. Chapter 1 provides background on the
performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) approach. Chapter 2 presents the
implementation of the PBEE methodology of the PEER framework, as applied to the benchmark
building. Chapter 3 sets the stage for the choices of location and basic structural design. The subsequent core chapters focus on the hazard analysis (Chapter 4), the structural analysis
(Chapter 5), and the damage and loss analyses (Chapter 6). Although the report is self-contained,
readers interested in additional details can find them in the appendices
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Evaluator/controller practicum for US Department of Energy emergency exercises
Argonne National Laboratory has designed a practicum to help ensure that exercises at Department of Energy (DOE) facilities provide results that will be useful in maintaining or improving emergency preparedness while ensuring the safety of the public and the exercise participants. Participants in the first two offerings of the practicum came from DOE facilities nationwide. The practicum augments the usual forms of controller and evaluator training with actual practice in carrying out controller and evaluator roles. Feedback from participants indicated substantial benefit from the training. Many of the participants expressed a desire to present such training to others at their home facilities
Multi-technical approach for the characterization of polychrome decorative surfaces at Spanish Mission Churches in Nueva Vizcaya (Chihuahua, Mexico)
An interdisciplinary and multi-institutional group of science and art conservation specialists has provided new insight into the painting materials used in the polychrome walls and wooden ceilings in four seventeenth century Spanish colonial churches of Nueva Vizcaya (Chihuahua, Mexico). A multi-analytical study of the decorative surfaces was performed in situ using spectroscopic approaches (XRF, FORS), False Colour Infrared Reflectography–IRFC, as well as micro sampling (ATR-FTIR, LM, GC/MS). A survey of natural resources and study (ATR-FTIR, LM) was carried out to elucidate the natural occurrence of a select number of materials in the surrounding areas of the churches. The present paper presents a multi-analytical study and characterization of green, red-orange and black colour pigments and binders selected from the decorative surfaces. The aim of this study is to highlight relationships between local materials and those from the original polychrome ceilings, in order to understand the material and technological influences that converged in the Spanish colonial architecture of northern Mexico
The locus of “memory displacement” is at least partially perceptual: Effects of velocity, expectation, friction, memory averaging, and weight
Drug-resistant tuberculosis patient care journeys in South Africa: A pilot study using routine laboratory data
hirteen districts in Eastern Cape (EC), KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Western Cape (WC) Provinces, South Africa. OBJECTIVE: To pilot a methodology for describing and visualising healthcare journeys among drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) patients using routine laboratory records. DESIGN: Laboratory records were obtained for 195 patients with laboratory-detected rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB) during July-September 2016. Health facility visits identified from these data were plotted to visualise patient healthcare journeys. Data were verified by facility visits. RESULTS: In the 9 months after the index RR-TB sample was collected, patients visited a mean of 2.3 health facilities (95% CI 2.1-2.6), with 9% visiting ≥4 facilities. The median distance travelled by patients from rural areas (116 km, interquartile range [IQR] 50-290) was greater than for urban patients (51 km, IQR 9-140). A median of 21% of patient's time was spent under the care of primary healthcare facilities: this was respectively 6%, 37% and 39% in KZN, EC and WC. Journey patterns were generally similar within districts. Some reflected a semi-centralised model of care where patients were referred to regional hospitals; other journeys showed greater involvement of primary care
Allogeneic Mesenchymal Cell Therapy in Anthracycline-Induced Cardiomyopathy Heart Failure Patients: The CCTRN SENECA Trial.
BACKGROUND: Anthracycline-induced cardiomyopathy (AIC) may be irreversible with a poor prognosis, disproportionately affecting women and young adults. Administration of allogeneic bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (allo-MSCs) is a promising approach to heart failure (HF) treatment.
OBJECTIVES: SENECA (Stem Cell Injection in Cancer Survivors) was a phase 1 study of allo-MSCs in AIC.
METHODS: Cancer survivors with chronic AIC (mean age 56.6 years; 68% women; NT-proBNP 1,426 pg/ml; 6 enrolled in an open-label, lead-in phase and 31 subjects randomized 1:1) received 1 × 10
RESULTS: A total of 97% of subjects underwent successful study product injections; all allo-MSC-assigned subjects received the target dose of cells. Follow-up visits were well-attended (92%) with successful collection of endpoints in 94% at the 1-year visit. Although 58% of subjects had non-CMR compatible devices, CMR endpoints were successfully collected in 84% of subjects imaged at 1 year. No new tumors were reported. There were no significant differences between allo-MSC and vehicle groups with regard to clinical outcomes. Secondary measures included 6-min walk test (p = 0.056) and Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire score (p = 0.048), which tended to favor the allo-MSC group.
CONCLUSIONS: In this first-in-human study of cell therapy in patients with AIC, transendocardial administration of allo-MSCs appears safe and feasible, and CMR was successfully performed in the majority of the HF patients with devices. This study lays the groundwork for phase 2 trials aimed at assessing efficacy of cell therapy in patients with AIC
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