How to determine life expectancy change of air pollution mortality: a time series study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Information on life expectancy (LE) change is of great concern for policy makers, as evidenced by discussions of the "harvesting" (or "mortality displacement") issue, i.e. how large an LE loss corresponds to the mortality results of time series (TS) studies. Whereas loss of LE attributable to chronic air pollution exposure can be determined from cohort studies, using life table methods, conventional TS studies have identified only deaths due to acute exposure, during the immediate past (typically the preceding one to five days), and they provide no information about the LE loss per death.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We show how to obtain information on population-average LE loss by extending the observation window (largest "lag") of TS to include a sufficient number of "impact coefficients" for past exposures ("lags"). We test several methods for determining these coefficients. Once all of the coefficients have been determined, the LE change is calculated as time integral of the relative risk change after a permanent step change in exposure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The method is illustrated with results for daily data of non-accidental mortality from Hong Kong for 1985 - 2005, regressed against PM₁₀and SO₂with observation windows up to 5 years. The majority of the coefficients is statistically significant. The magnitude of the SO₂coefficients is comparable to those for PM₁₀. But a window of 5 years is not sufficient and the results for LE change are only a lower bound; it is consistent with what is implied by other studies of long term impacts.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A TS analysis can determine the LE loss, but if the observation window is shorter than the relevant exposures one obtains only a lower bound.</p

Radiotherapeutic alternatives for previously irradiated recurrent gliomas

Re-irradiation for recurrent gliomas has been discussed controversially in the past. This was mainly due to only marginal palliation while being associated with a high risk for side effects using conventional radiotherapy

Microsurgical third ventriculocisternostomy as an alternative to ETV: report of two cases

OBJECTIVE: To describe a microsurgical alternative to endoscopic third ventriculocisternostomy. METHODS: Two children with shunt-dependent hydrocephalus and multiple shunt revisions were considered candidates for third ventriculocisternostomy (TVS). Because of slit ventricles, an endoscopic approach was not possible and, therefore, both patients received a microsurgical TVS by a supraorbital approach. RESULTS: In both cases, microsurgical TVS was successful and the patients became shunt free. CONCLUSION: Microsurgical TVS by a supraorbital craniotomy is a viable alternative to endoscopic TVS in selected cases

Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM_2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful assessment, while complicated lag estimates can be omitted without this having any major effect on the results.</p