Scenario-based portfolio model for building robust and proactive strategies

In order to address major changes in the operational environment, companies can (i) define scenarios that characterize different alternatives for this environment, (ii) assign probabilities to these scenarios, (iii) evaluate the performance of strategic actions across the scenarios, and (iv) choose those actions that are expected to perform best. In this paper, we develop a portfolio model to support the selection of such strategic actions when the information about scenario probabilities is possibly incomplete and may depend on the selected actions. This model helps build a strategy that is robust in that it performs relatively well in view of all available probability information, and proactive in that it can help steer the future as reflected by the scenarios toward the desired direction. We also report a case study in which the model helped a group of Nordic, globally operating steel and engineering companies build a platform ecosystem strategy that accounts for uncertainties related to markets, politics, and technological development

Spatial Structure and Coherent Motion in Dense Planetary Rings Induced by Self-Gravitational Instability

We investigate the formation of spatial structure in dense, self-gravitating particle systems such as Saturn's B-ring through local $N$-body simulations to clarify the intrinsic physics based on individual particle motion. In such a system, Salo (1995) showed that the formation of spatial structure such as wake-like structure and particle grouping (clump) arises spontaneously due to gravitational instability and the radial velocity dispersion increases as the formation of the wake structure. However, intrinsic physics of the phenomena has not been clarified. We performed local $N$-body simulations including mutual gravitational forces between ring particles as well as direct (inelastic) collisions with identical (up to $N\sim40000$) particles. In the wake structure particles no longer move randomly but coherently. We found that particle motion was similar to Keplerian motion even in the wake structure and that the coherent motion was produced since the particles in a clump had similar eccentricity and longitude of perihelion. This coherent motion causes the increase and oscillation in the radial velocity dispersion. The mean velocity dispersion is rather larger in a more dissipative case with a smaller restitution coefficient and/or a larger surface density since the coherence is stronger in the more dissipative case. Our simulations showed that the wavelength of the wake structure was approximately given by the longest wavelength \hs{\lambda}{cr} = 4\pi^2 G\Sigma/\kappa^2 in the linear theory of axisymmetric gravitational instability in a thin disk, where $G$, $\Sigma$, and $\kappa$ are the gravitational constant, surface density, and a epicyclic frequency.Comment: Accepted by Earth, Planets, and Space. 39 pages, 20 figures. PostScript files also available from http://www.geo.titech.ac.jp/nakazawalab/hdaisaka/works

Exponential instability in the fractional Calder\'on problem

In this note we prove the exponential instability of the fractional Calder\'on problem and thus prove the optimality of the logarithmic stability estimate from \cite{RS17}. In order to infer this result, we follow the strategy introduced by Mandache in \cite{M01} for the standard Calder\'on problem. Here we exploit a close relation between the fractional Calder\'on problem and the classical Poisson operator. Moreover, using the construction of a suitable orthonormal basis, we also prove (almost) optimality of the Runge approximation result for the fractional Laplacian, which was derived in \cite{RS17}. Finally, in one dimension, we show a close relation between the fractional Calder\'on problem and the truncated Hilbert transform.Comment: 17 page

Depressive symptoms are associated with analgesic use in people with Alzheimer's disease: Kuopio ALSOVA study.

Neuropsychiatric symptoms of Alzheimer's disease (AD) such as depression may be associated with pain, which according to the literature may be inadequately recognized and managed in this population. This study aimed to identify the factors associated with analgesic use in persons with AD; in particular, how AD severity, functional status, neuropsychiatric symptoms of AD, co-morbidities and somatic symptoms are associated with analgesic use. 236 community-dwelling persons with very mild or mild AD at baseline, and their caregivers, were interviewed over five years as part of the prospective ALSOVA study. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) were used to estimate unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for the factors associated with analgesic use over a five year follow-up. The proportion of persons with AD using any analgesic was low (13.6%) at baseline and remained relatively constant during the follow-up (15.3% at Year 5). Over time, the most prevalent analgesic changed from non-steroidal anti-inflammatories (8.1% of persons with AD at Year 1) to acetaminophen (11.1% at Year 5). Depressive symptoms (measured by the Beck Depression Inventory, BDI) were independently associated with analgesic use, after effects of age, gender, education, AD severity, comorbidities and somatic symptoms were taken into account. For every one unit increase in BDI, the odds of analgesic use increased by 4% (OR = 1.04, 95% confidence interval CI = 1.02-1.07). Caregiver depressive symptoms were not statistically significantly associated with analgesic use of the person with AD. Depressive symptoms were significantly associated with analgesic use during the five year follow-up period. Possible explanations warranting investigation are that persons with AD may express depressive symptoms as painful somatic complaints, or untreated pain may cause depressive symptoms. Greater awareness of the association between depressive symptoms and analgesic use may lead to safer and more effective prescribing for these conditions

THE INFLUENCE OF CHANGES IN SPRINT ABlLlN ON THE SLED VELOCIN PROFILE DURING THE SKELETON START

Sprint times are key predictors of skeleton start petformance, but the effect of enhancing sprint ability on the development of sled velocity is unknown. Twelve well-trained skeleton athletes performed three dry-land push-starts and three 30-m sprints before and after 16 training weeks. Sled velocity profiles were characterised using three descriptors (pre-load velocity, pre-load distance and load effectiveness) and a sled acceleration index was used to evaluate performance. Increases in pre-load velocity and distance were related to improved sprint times. However, enhanced sprint ability did not guarantee a faster start as reductions in load effectiveness were also observed when higher velocities were attained. Coaches could supplement physical conditioning with load technique training to potentially improve the transfer of training-induced sled velocity increases across the loading phase

The Distribution of Bar and Spiral Strengths in Disk Galaxies

The distribution of bar strengths in disk galaxies is a fundamental property of the galaxy population that has only begun to be explored. We have applied the bar/spiral separation method of Buta, Block, and Knapen to derive the distribution of maximum relative gravitational bar torques, Q_b, for 147 spiral galaxies in the statistically well-defined Ohio State University Bright Galaxy Survey (OSUBGS) sample. Our goal is to examine the properties of bars as independently as possible of their associated spirals. We find that the distribution of bar strength declines smoothly with increasing Q_b, with more than 40% of the sample having Q_b <= 0.1. In the context of recurrent bar formation, this suggests that strongly-barred states are relatively short-lived compared to weakly-barred or non-barred states. We do not find compelling evidence for a bimodal distribution of bar strengths. Instead, the distribution is fairly smooth in the range 0.0 <= Q_b < 0.8. Our analysis also provides a first look at spiral strengths Q_s in the OSU sample, based on the same torque indicator. We are able to verify a possible weak correlation between Q_s and Q_b, in the sense that galaxies with the strongest bars tend also to have strong spirals.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal, August 2005 issue (LaTex, 23 pages + 11 figures, uses aastex.cls

Limiting Carleman weights and anisotropic inverse problems

In this article we consider the anisotropic Calderon problem and related inverse problems. The approach is based on limiting Carleman weights, introduced in Kenig-Sjoestrand-Uhlmann (Ann. of Math. 2007) in the Euclidean case. We characterize those Riemannian manifolds which admit limiting Carleman weights, and give a complex geometrical optics construction for a class of such manifolds. This is used to prove uniqueness results for anisotropic inverse problems, via the attenuated geodesic X-ray transform. Earlier results in dimension $n \geq 3$ were restricted to real-analytic metrics.Comment: 58 page

Disintegrin and metalloproteinases (ADAMs) expression in gastroesophageal reflux disease and in esophageal adenocarcinoma

Clinically useful marker molecules for the progression of gastroesophageal reflux disease and Barrett's esophagus (BE) to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) are lacking. Many adenocarcinomas and inflammatory conditions exhibit increased expression of ADAMs, 'a disintegrin and metalloproteinases'. We assessed the expression of five ADAMs (9, 10, 12, 17, 19) in three esophageal cell lines (Het-1A, OE19, OE33) by RT-PCR and Western blotting, and in human samples of normal esophagus, esophagitis, BE, Barrett's dysplasia, and EAC by RT-PCR, and in selected samples by immunohistochemistry. EAC patients showed increased mRNA expression of ADAMs 9, 12, 17 and 19, as compared to controls. At immunohistochemistry, ADAM9 and ADAM10 proteins were increased in EAC. Patient samples also showed increased mRNA expression of ADAM12 in esophagitis, of ADAM9 in BE, and of ADAMs 9, 12 and 19 in Barrett's dysplasia, as compared to controls. Two EAC cell lines showed increased ADAM9 mRNA. ADAM9 expression is increased in EAC. Its predecessors show increased ADAM9 mRNA expression. The importance of the alterations in ADAM expression for the development of EAC, and their use as marker molecules, warrant further studies.Peer reviewe