Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probabilistic approach

Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are based on deterministic laws. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering, and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the operation of the existing models lays in the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. For the purpose, we have modified the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a probabilistic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. [..]Comment: 25 pages, 14 figures, 9 tables. Revised version; accepted for publication in Geoscientific Model Development on 13 February 201

Changes in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, in the 20th century

Abstract. Only a few studies have investigated the geographical and temporal variations in the frequency and distribution of rainfall-induced landslides, and the consequences of the variations on landslide risk. Lack of information limits the possibility to evaluate the impact of environmental and climate changes on landslide frequency and risk. Here, we exploit detailed historical information on landslides and rainfall in Calabria, southern Italy, between 1921 and 2010 to study the temporal and the geographical variation in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides and in their impact on the population. We exploit a catalogue with information on historical landslides from June 1920 to December 2010, and daily rainfall records obtained by a network of 318 rain gauges in the same period, to reconstruct 448 493 rainfall events (RE). Combining the rainfall and the landslide information, we obtain a catalogue of 1466 rainfall events with landslides (REL), where an REL is the occurrence of one or more landslide during or immediately after a rainfall event. We find that (i) the geographical and the temporal distributions of the rainfall-induced landslides have changed in the observation period, (ii) the monthly distribution of the REL has changed in the observation period, and (iii) the average and maximum cumulated event rainfall that have resulted in landslides in the recent 30-year period 1981–2010 are lower than the rainfall necessary to trigger landslides in previous periods, whereas the duration of the RE that triggered landslides has remained the same. We attribute the changes to variations in the rainfall conditions and to an increased vulnerability of the territory. To investigate the variations in the impact of REL on the population, we compared the number of REL in each of the 409 municipalities in Calabria with the size of the population in the municipalities measured by national Censuses conducted in 1951, 1981, and 2011. We adopted two strategies; the first strategy considered impact as IREL = #REL / P, and the second strategy measured impact as RREL = #REL × P, where #REL is the total number of REL in a period, and P is the size of the population in the same period and geographical area. The analysis has revealed a complex pattern of changes in the impact of rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria in the recent past, with areas where IREL and RREL have increased, and other areas where they have decreased. Municipalities where IREL has increased are mainly in the mountains, and municipalities where RREL has increased are mainly along the coasts. The complexity of the changes in the frequency and impact of rainfall-induced landslides observed in Calabria suggests that it remains difficult and uncertain to predict the possible variations in the frequency and impact of landslide in response to future climatic and environmental changes

INTEGRATION OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF SURVEY OUTPUT AND THE INFORMATION ASSET IN A 3D MODEL OF THE CASTELLO SFORZESCO IN MILAN

In recent years, the architecture domain, driven by today's digital transition, has been actively exploring the world of digital twins, also thanks to the technological advancement that supports the progress on the issue. Within this context, the present work deals with the wide world of Architectural Cultural Heritage digitization. It aims to obtain a tool to support knowledge, investigation, and management of the built heritage. The research proposes an approach for digital twin development that comprehensively describes the architectural asset, including elements that are no longer present or visible. For this purpose, the three-dimensional model collects the available heterogeneous geometric datum, inevitably characterized by different levels of accuracy. The digitization model designed involves the coexistence of objects belonging to different Levels of Geometric Information (LOGI). All types of data then cooperate in defining the overall geometric information. Therefore, this framework allows for exploiting geometric information from both geomatics digital surveys and historical sources. This system allows obtaining a digital model that includes the different evolutionary phases of architectural assets by providing an overall view of these structures, an essential notion for operating properly on this kind of architecture. The digitization system was tested on a particular case study, the Ghirlanda of the Castello Sforzesco in Milan. The complexity of the property and the richness of the information heritage guided this choice, providing the basis for an appropriate and effective experimental activity

FROM THE DIGITAL TWIN OF ARCHITECTURAL HERITAGE TO THE DEFINITION OF THE CONSTRAINT MAPS. THE CASE STUDY OF THE CASTELLO SFORZESCO IN MILAN

The work presented here is part of the widespread digitisation process that is affecting the world of architecture and cultural heritage. The text reports part of the activities carried out on the Castello Sforzesco in Milan, in collaboration with its Superintendence bodies. This work proposes an innovative way to draft, in a digital environment, 3D constraint maps, capable of describing and protecting the complex system of structures in that area, especially in the subsoil. The activity began with the creation of a georeferenced 3D model of all the existing architectural elements in the analyzed area of the Castle. The work was carried out on the northwest corner of the fortress, the area between the Torre della Colubrina and the Porta del Soccorso. The modeling activity was based both on data obtained from surveys and historical documentation describing structures that are no longer visible. From the 3D model, it was then possible to obtain all useful data to draw up constraint maps in GIS (Geographic Information System) environment. This latter allows multiple interactions both with the normal surface cartographic information (Topographic Database and others) and with the multitude of datasets available for managing the territory and its subsystems. The constraints consider a ‘safety’ offset, applied in all three directions. These maps describe the various three-dimensional areas, referring to the different structures present in the subsoil, within which it is recommended to operate with extreme caution, in relation to the position and conformation of the same identified assets

Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Calabria, southern Italy

Abstract. In many areas, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides. Determining the rainfall conditions responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to saving lives and properties. In a long-term national project for the definition of rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy, we compiled a catalogue of 186 rainfall events that resulted in 251 shallow landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, from January 1996 to September 2011. Landslides were located geographically using Google Earth®, and were given a mapping and a temporal accuracy. We used the landslide information, and sub-hourly rainfall measurements obtained from two complementary networks of rain gauges, to determine cumulated event vs. rainfall duration (ED) thresholds for Calabria. For this purpose, we adopted an existing method used to prepare rainfall thresholds and to estimate their associated uncertainties in central Italy. The regional thresholds for Calabria were found to be nearly identical to previous ED thresholds for Calabria obtained using a reduced set of landslide information, and slightly higher than the ED thresholds obtained for central Italy. We segmented the regional catalogue of rainfall events with landslides in Calabria into lithology, soil regions, rainfall zones, and seasonal periods. The number of events in each subdivision was insufficient to determine reliable thresholds, but allowed for preliminary conclusions about the role of the environmental factors in the rainfall conditions responsible for shallow landslides in Calabria. We further segmented the regional catalogue based on administrative subdivisions used for hydro-meteorological monitoring and operational flood forecasting, and we determined separate ED thresholds for the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian coasts of Calabria. We expect the ED rainfall thresholds for Calabria to be used in regional and national landslide warning systems. The thresholds can also be used for landslide hazard and risk assessments, and for erosion and landscape evolution studies, in the study area and in similar physiographic regions in the Mediterranean area

Loss of lag-response curvilinearity of indices of heart rate variability in congestive heart failure

BACKGROUND: Heart rate variability (HRV) is known to be impaired in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). Time-domain analysis of ECG signals traditionally relies heavily on linear indices of an essentially non-linear phenomenon. Poincaré plots are commonly used to study non-linear behavior of physiologic signals. Lagged Poincaré plots incorporate autocovariance information and analysis of Poincaré plots for various lags can provide interesting insights into the autonomic control of the heart. METHODS: Using Poincaré plot analysis, we assessed whether the relation of the lag between heart beats and HRV is altered in CHF. We studied the influence of lag on estimates of Poincaré plot indices for various lengths of beat sequence in a public domain data set (PhysioNet) of 29 subjects with CHF and 54 subjects with normal sinus rhythm. RESULTS: A curvilinear association was observed between lag and Poincaré plot indices (SD1, SD2, SDLD and SD1/SD2 ratio) in normal subjects even for a small sequence of 50 beats (p value for quadratic term 3 × 10(-5), 0.002, 3.5 × 10(-5 )and 0.0003, respectively). This curvilinearity was lost in patients with CHF even after exploring sequences up to 50,000 beats (p values for quadratic term > 0.5). CONCLUSION: Since lagged Poincaré plots incorporate autocovariance information, these analyses provide insights into the autonomic control of heart rate that is influenced by the non-linearity of the signal. The differences in lag-response in CHF patients and normal subjects exist even in the face of the treatment received by the CHF patients

BUILT ENVIRONMENT: MODELLING THE URBAN SPACE

In urban areas, the “built” is defined by many different elements. Not only buildings but also open spaces containing green areas, viability, urban furniture, underground facilities. While the H-BIM sector focuses, rightly, on buildings of great historical significance, in our case it is been consider a part of the built that it usually not analyse: the urban open space. One of the interesting themes is the possibility of having a single tool that integrates the different objects present in a complex environment such as the urban area. The process with BIM model could allow a huge saving in terms of time and costs considering public tender, maintenance or construction phase of a project. Facility management operating through BIM is another relevant theme considering the whole life of a construction. Finally, another important theme is the connections between elements above the ground (visible elements) and subsoil (not visible elements), not only for the administrations but also if related to the HBIM environment.The paper reports the analysis of the experience performed, particularly related to questions about detail and accuracy of the BIM model.A methodology for modelling open spaces is been assuming, it is described possible improvements and considerations on the result.</p

Cyclic RGD peptidomimetics containing bifunctional diketopiperazine scaffolds as new potent integrin ligands

The synthesis of eight bifunctional diketopiperazine (DKP) scaffolds is described; these were formally derived from 2,3-diaminopropionic acid and aspartic acid (DKP-1-DKP-7) or glutamic acid (DKP-8) and feature an amine and a carboxylic acid functional group. The scaffolds differ in the configuration at the two stereocenters and the substitution at the diketopiperazinic nitrogen atoms. The bifunctional diketopiperazines were introduced into eight cyclic peptidomimetics containing the Arg-Gly-Asp (RGD) sequence. The resulting RGD peptidomimetics were screened for their ability to inhibit biotinylated vitronectin binding to the purified integrins \u3b1 v\u3b2 3 and \u3b1 v\u3b2 5, which are involved in tumor angiogenesis. Nanomolar IC 50 values were obtained for the RGD peptidomimetics derived from trans DKP scaffolds (DKP-2-DKP-8). Conformational studies of the cyclic RGD peptidomimetics by 1H NMR spectroscopy experiments (VT-NMR and NOESY spectroscopy) in aqueous solution and Monte Carlo/Stochastic Dynamics (MC/SD) simulations revealed that the highest affinity ligands display well-defined preferred conformations featuring intramolecular hydrogen-bonded turn motifs and an extended arrangement of the RGD sequence [C\u3b2(Arg)-C\u3b2(Asp) average distance 658.8 \uc5]. Docking studies were performed, starting from the representative conformations obtained from the MC/SD simulations and taking as a reference model the crystal structure of the extracellular segment of integrin \u3b1 v\u3b2 3 complexed with the cyclic pentapeptide, Cilengitide. The highest affinity ligands produced top-ranked poses conserving all the important interactions of the X-ray complex. Copyright \ua9 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH &amp; Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Recurrence Plot Based Measures of Complexity and its Application to Heart Rate Variability Data

The knowledge of transitions between regular, laminar or chaotic behavior is essential to understand the underlying mechanisms behind complex systems. While several linear approaches are often insufficient to describe such processes, there are several nonlinear methods which however require rather long time observations. To overcome these difficulties, we propose measures of complexity based on vertical structures in recurrence plots and apply them to the logistic map as well as to heart rate variability data. For the logistic map these measures enable us not only to detect transitions between chaotic and periodic states, but also to identify laminar states, i.e. chaos-chaos transitions. The traditional recurrence quantification analysis fails to detect the latter transitions. Applying our new measures to the heart rate variability data, we are able to detect and quantify the laminar phases before a life-threatening cardiac arrhythmia occurs thereby facilitating a prediction of such an event. Our findings could be of importance for the therapy of malignant cardiac arrhythmias