The log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model for financial crashes

This paper intends to meet recent claims for the attainment of more rigorous statistical methodology within the econophysics literature. To this end, we consider an econometric approach to investigate the outcomes of the log-periodic model of price movements, which has been largely used to forecast financial crashes. In order to accomplish reliable statistical inference for unknown parameters, we incorporate an autoregressive dynamic and a conditional heteroskedasticity structure in the error term of the original model, yielding the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model. Both the original and the extended models are fitted to financial indices of U. S. market, namely S&P500 and NASDAQ. Our analysis reveal two main points: (i) the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model has residuals with better statistical properties and (ii) the estimation of the parameter concerning the time of the financial crash has been improved.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, 12 tables, to appear in Europen Physical Journal

Chemical composition and antigenotoxic properties of Lippia alba essential oils

The present work evaluated the chemical composition and the DNA protective effect of the essential oils (EOs) from Lippia alba against bleomycin-induced genotoxicity. EO constituents were determined by Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometric (GC-MS) analysis. The major compounds encountered being citral (33% geranial and 25% neral), geraniol (7%) and trans-β-caryophyllene (7%) for L. alba specimen COL512077, and carvone (38%), limonene (33%) and bicyclosesquiphellandrene (8%) for the other, COL512078. The genotoxicity and antigenotoxicity of EO and the compounds citral, carvone and limonene, were assayed using the SOS Chromotest in Escherichia coli. The EOs were not genotoxic in the SOS chromotest, but one of the major compound (limonene) showed genotoxicity at doses between 97 and 1549 mM. Both EOs protected bacterial cells against bleomycin-induced genotoxicity. Antigenotoxicity in the two L. alba chemotypes was related to the major compounds, citral and carvone, respectively. The results were discussed in relation to the chemopreventive potential of L. alba EOs and its major compounds

Efficient Parameter-Estimating Algorithms for Symmetry-Motivated Models: Econometrics and Beyond

It is known that symmetry ideas can explain the empirical success of many non-linear models. This explanation makes these models theoretically justified and thus, more reliable. However, the models remain non-linear and thus, identification or the model\u27s parameters based on the observations remains a computationally expensive nonlinear optimization problem. In this paper, we show that symmetry ideas can not only help to select and justify a nonlinear model, they can also help us design computationally efficient almost-linear algorithms for identifying the model\u27s parameters

Trap-nesting bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) in forest fragments of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

We studied the community ecology of trap-nesting bees in two forest fragments of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, during two years, utilizing bamboo canes and tubes made of black cardboard as trap nests. The traps were inspected once a month with an otoscope. One hundred and fifteen nests were obtained at Estacao Ecologica de Paulo de Faria, Paulo de Faria (EEPF). These included nine species belonging to five genera and two families. At Santa Cecilia Farm (SCF), 12 species belonging to seven genera and three families built 392 nests. Natural enemies reared from nests of both areas included Hymenoptera, Diptera and Coleoptera. Species richness was similar between the areas but the communities differed considerably in species composition. The higher diversity found at EEPF was due to more even distribution of the species. No difference was observed between the numbers of nests built in each year in each area. Although the species richness was lower in the cool/dry season of both years at SCF, and in the first year at EEPF, the nesting frequencies did not differ between seasons for both the overall community but for each of the most abundant species. No annual fluctuation in the frequencies of nesting was observed. As temperature and precipitation were not found to be significantly different between the two years of study in each area, we concluded that climatic stability resulted in population stability.Esta ao Ecologica de Paulo de FariaCoordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES

The log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model for financial crashes

This paper intends to meet recent claims for the attainment of more rigorous statistical methodology within the econophysics literature. To this end, we consider an econometric approach to investigate the outcomes of the log-periodic model of price movements, which has been largely used to forecast financial crashes. In order to accomplish reliable statistical inference for unknown parameters, we incorporate an autoregressive dynamic and a conditional heteroskedasticity structure in the error term of the original model, yielding the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model. Both the original and the extended models are fitted to financial indices of U. S. market, namely S&P500 and NASDAQ. Our analysis reveal two main points: (i) the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model has residuals with better statistical properties and (ii) the estimation of the parameter concerning the time of the financial crash has been improved.

Substrates and fertilization in the development of São Carlos grass

São Carlos grass (Axonopus affinis) is recommended for use in industrial areas, residential gardens and country houses, and has tolerance to semi-shaded areas. The experiment was carried out at UNESP, Campus de Ilha Solteira - SP, in the period from 06/28 to 12/14/2014, in a greenhouse (Pad & Fan, mean temp 25°C and average luminosity 2500 lux). The grass was implanted in black plastic containers (8.46 liters), and the experimental design was a 3x4 factorial composed of three substrates: soil, soil + organic matter (1: 1) and soil + organic matter + sand (2:1:1), and three chemical fertilizers: Forth Jardim®, Maxgreen S2® and NPK (10-10-10), and without fertilization. The organic matter showed a beneficial effect on the development of the turfgrass, as well as the use of Forth Jardim®