Seasonal variability of Indonesian rainfall in ECHAM4 simulations and in the reanalyses: The role of ENSO

A study on the skill of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM version 4 and two reanalyses in simulating the Indonesian rainfall is presented with comparisons to 30 years of rain gauge data. The reanalyses are those performed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and of the National Centers for Environmental Predic- tion jointly with National Center for Atmospheric Research. This study investigates the skill of the reanalyses and ECHAM4 with regard to regional, annual and interannual variability of rainfall and its responses to El Ni˜ no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The study is conducted at two resolutions, T42 and T106. A new regionalization method called the double correlation method is introduced. With this method, the Maritime Continent is divided into three climate regions, the south mon- soonal, the northwest semi-monsoonal and the Molucca anti-monsoonal region. Except over Molucca, the reanalyses and ECHAM4 simulate these annual rainfall patterns quite well. The three regions are used to study the variability of Indonesian rainfall and to mea- sure the skills of the reanalyses and ECHAM4. The skill of rainfall simulations in Indonesia depends on the region, month and season, and the distribution of land and sea. Higher sim- ulation skills are confined to years with ENSO events. Except for the region of northwest Indonesia, the rainfall from June (Molucca) and July (south Indonesia) to November is in- fluenced by ENSO, and it is more sensitive to El Ni˜ no than La Ni˜ na events. The observations show that the Moluccan region is more sensitive to ENSO, receives a longer ENSO impact and receives the earliest ENSO impact in June. The ENSO impact will diminish in Decem- ber. It is found that the reanalyses and the climate model simulate the seasonal variability better than the monthly one. The seasonal skill is the highest in June/July/August, followed by September/October/November, December/January/February and March/April/May. The correlations usually break down in April (for monthly analysis) or in spring (for seasonal analysis). In general the performance of ECHAM4 is poor, but in ENSO sensitive regions and during ENSO events, it is comparable to the reanalyses. The introduction of a higher resolution land-sea mask improves the model performance. Besides rainfall variability, signatures of the ENSO impact, the spring correlation breakdown and annual cycles are better represented by the higher resolution model

Long-term results 8 years after autologous osteochondral transplantation: 7 T gagCEST and sodium magnetic resonance imaging with morphological and clinical correlation

SummaryObjectiveTo correlate long-term clinical outcome and the results of morphological as well as advanced biochemical magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques [T2-mapping, glycosaminoglycan chemical exchange saturation transfer (gagCEST), sodium-23-imaging] in patients after autologous osteochondral transplantation (AOT) in knee joints.MethodNine AOT patients (two female and seven male; median age, 49) had clinical [International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC), modified Lysholm, visual analog scale (VAS)] and radiological long-term follow-up examinations at a median of 7.9 years (inter-quartile range, 7.7–8.2). Standard morphological MRI and T2-mapping of cartilage were performed on a 3 T MR unit. Biochemical imaging further included sodium-23-imaging and chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) imaging at 7 T. The Magnetic resonance Observation of CArtilage Repair Tissue (MOCART) score was used for quantitative assessment of morphological MRI.ResultsClinical outcome was good with a median modified Lysholm score of 90. Median VAS revealed 1.0 and median MOCART score 75 points. The difference between native and repair cartilage was statistically significant for all three biochemical imaging techniques. The strongest correlation was found between the results of the advanced biochemical imaging methods sodium-23 and CEST [ρ = 0.952, 95% confidence interval (CI): (0.753; 0.992)]. Comparing the results from morphological and biochemical imaging, a correlation was found between MOCART score and CEST ratio [ρ = −0.749, 95% CI: (−0.944; −0.169)]. Comparing the results from clinical scores with MRI, a correlation between modified Lysholm and T2-mapping [ρ = −0.667, 95% CI: (−0.992; −0.005)] was observed.ConclusionLong-term clinical outcome in patients 7.9 years after AOT was good, but did not correlate with morphological and biochemical imaging results except for T2-mapping

2,000-year-long temperature and hydrology reconstructions from the Indo-Pacific warm pool

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 460 (2009): 1113-1116, doi:10.1038/nature08233.Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions suggest that the late twentieth century was warmer than any other time during the past 500 years and possibly any time during the past 1,300 years. These temperature reconstructions are based largely on terrestrial records from extra-tropical or highelevation sites; however, global average surface temperature changes closely follow those of the global tropics, which are 75% ocean. In particular, the tropical Indo- Pacific warm pool (IPWP) represents a major heat reservoir that both influences global atmospheric circulation and responds to remote northern latitude forcings. Here we present a decadally resolved continuous sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction from the IPWP that spans the past two millennia and overlaps the instrumental record, enabling both a direct comparison of proxy data to the instrumental record and an evaluation of past changes in the context of twentieth century trends. Our record from the Makassar Strait, Indonesia, exhibits trends that are similar to a recent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Reconstructed SST was, however, within error of modern values during the Medieval Warm Period from about AD 1000 to AD 1250, towards the end of the Medieval Warm Period. SSTs during the Little Ice Age (approximately ad 1550–1850) were variable, and 0.5 to 1°C colder than modern values during the coldest intervals. A companion reconstruction of δ18O of sea water—a sea surface salinity and hydrology indicator— indicates a tight coupling with the East Asian monsoon system and remote control of IPWP hydrology on centennial–millennial timescales, rather than a dominant influence from local SST variation.This work was financially supported by the US NSF and the Ocean Climate Change Institute of WHOI

Outcomes of polytrauma patients with diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: The impact of diabetes mellitus in patients with multiple system injuries remains obscure. This study was designed to increase knowledge of outcomes of polytrauma in patients who have diabetes mellitus. METHODS: Data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network was used to identify patients who had suffered polytrauma during 2003 to 2011. These patients were filtered to those with known outcomes, then separated into those with diabetes, those known to have other co-morbidities but not diabetes and those known not to have any co-morbidities or diabetes. The data were analyzed to establish if patients with diabetes had differing outcomes associated with their diabetes versus the other groups. RESULTS: In total, 222 patients had diabetes, 2,558 had no past medical co-morbidities (PMC), 2,709 had PMC but no diabetes. The diabetic group of patients was found to be older than the other groups (P <0.05). A higher mortality rate was found in the diabetic group compared to the non-PMC group (32.4% versus 12.9%), P <0.05). Rates of many complications including renal failure, myocardial infarction, acute respiratory distress syndrome, pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis were all found to be higher in the diabetic group. CONCLUSIONS: Close monitoring of diabetic patients may result in improved outcomes. Tighter glycemic control and earlier intervention for complications may reduce mortality and morbidity

Prevalence of prenatal zinc deficiency and its association with socio-demographic, dietary and health care related factors in Rural Sidama, Southern Ethiopia: A cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several studies witnessed that prenatal zinc deficiency (ZD) predisposes to diverse pregnancy complications. However, scientific evidences on the determinants of prenatal ZD are scanty and inconclusive. The purpose of the present study was to assess the prevalence and determinants of prenatal ZD in Sidama zone, Southern Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A community based, cross-sectional study was conducted in Sidama zone in January and February 2011. Randomly selected 700 pregnant women were included in the study. Data on potential determinants of ZD were gathered using a structured questionnaire. Serum zinc concentration was measured using Atomic Absorption Spectrometry. Statistical analysis was done using logistic regression and linear regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean serum zinc concentration was 52.4 (+/-9.9) μg/dl (95% CI: 51.6-53.1 μg/dl). About 53.0% (95% CI: 49.3-56.7%) of the subjects were zinc deficient. The majority of the explained variability of serum zinc was due to dietary factors like household food insecurity level, dietary diversity and consumption of animal source foods. The risk of ZD was 1.65 (95% CI: 1.02-2.67) times higher among women from maize staple diet category compared to <it>Enset </it>staple diet category. Compared to pregnant women aged 15-24 years, those aged 25-34 and 35-49 years had 1.57 (95% CI: 1.04-2.34) and 2.18 (95% CI: 1.25-3.63) times higher risk of ZD, respectively. Women devoid of self income had 1.74 (95% CI: 1.11-2.74) time increased risk than their counterparts. Maternal education was positively associated to zinc status. Grand multiparas were 1.74 (95% CI: 1.09-3.23) times more likely to be zinc deficient than nulliparas. Frequency of coffee intake was negatively association to serum zinc level. Positive association was noted between serum zinc and hemoglobin concentrations. Altitude, history of iron supplementation, maternal workload, physical access to health service, antenatal care and nutrition education were not associated to zinc status.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>ZD is of public health concern in the area. The problem must be combated through a combination of short, medium and long-term strategies. This includes the use of household based phytate reduction food processing techniques, agricultural based approaches and livelihood promotion strategies.</p

Reconstructing El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships' logbooks, 1815- 1854. Part I: Methodology and Evaluation

The meteorological information found within ships’ logbooks is a unique and fascinating source of data for historical climatology. This study uses wind observations from logbooks covering the period 1815 to 1854 to reconstruct an index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for boreal winter (DJF). Statistically-based reconstructions of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are obtained using two methods: principal component regression (PCR) and composite-plus-scale (CPS). Calibration and validation are carried out over the modern period 1979–2014, assessing the relationship between re-gridded seasonal ERA-Interim reanalysis wind data and the instrumental SOI. The reconstruction skill of both the PCR and CPS methods is found to be high with reduction of error skill scores of 0.80 and 0.75, respectively. The relationships derived during the fitting period are then applied to the logbook wind data to reconstruct the historical SOI. We develop a new method to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructions to using a limited number of observations per season and find that the CPS method performs better than PCR with a limited number of observations. A difference in the distribution of wind force terms used by British and Dutch ships is found, and its impact on the reconstruction assessed. The logbook reconstructions agree well with a previous SOI reconstructed from Jakarta rain day counts, 1830–1850, adding robustness to our reconstructions. Comparisons to additional documentary and proxy data sources are provided in a companion paper

Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis). Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the North Pacific area into the coupled system drastically changes the Arctic climate variability to a point where the Arctic Oscillation becomes an ‘internal mode’ of variability and correlations of year-to-year variability with observational data vanish. In line with previous studies, our simulations provide evidence that Arctic sea ice export is mainly due to ‘internal variability’ within the Arctic region. We conclude that the choice of model domains should be based on physical knowledge of the atmospheric and oceanic processes and not on ‘geographic’ reasons. This is particularly the case for areas like the Arctic, which has very complex feedbacks between components of the regional climate system

Long-term simulation of Indonesian rainfall with the MPI regional model

Simulations of the Indonesian rainfall variability using the Max Planck Institute regional climate model REMO have been performed using three different lateral boundary forcings: Reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA15), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NRA) as well as from ECHAM4 climate model simulation. The result of those simulations are compared to station data. REMO simulations were performed at 0.5degrees horizontal resolution for the whole archipelago and at 1/6degrees for Sulawesi Island. In general the REMO model, reproduces the spatial pattern of monthly and seasonal rainfall well over land, but overestimates the rainfall over sea. Superiority of REMO performance over land is due to a high-resolution orography, while over sea, REMO suffers from erroneously low surface fluxes. REMO reproduces variability during El Nino-Southern Oscillations years well but fails to show a good (wet and dry) monsoon contrast. Despite strong influences of the lateral boundary fields, REMO shows a realistic improvement of a local phenomenon over Molucca. Significant improvement for the step from the relatively high global 1.125degrees to 0.5degrees resolution is noticeable, but not from 0.5degrees into 1/6degrees. The REMO simulation driven by ERA15 has the best quality, followed by NRA and ECHAM4 driven simulations. The quality of ERA15 is the main factor determining the quality of REMO simulations. A predictability study shows small internal variability among ensemble members. However, there are systematic intrinsic climatological errors as shown in the predictability analysis. These intrinsic errors have monthly, seasonal and regional dependencies and the one over Java is significantly large. The intrinsic error study suggests the presence of the spring predictability barrier and a high level of predictability in summe