The Energy Supply Model MESSAGE

This report describes the general form of an energy supply model called MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Systems And their General Environmental impact). MESSAGE is a dynamic linear programming model minimizing total costs of energy supply over a given time horizon. It balances secondary energy demand with primary energy supply. The model permits definitions of load regions, distinguishes between indigenous and imported resources, and takes account of the environmental impact of energy supply strategies. The most important application of MESSAGE is in the description of the IIASA global energy scenarios. A set of models and formalized procedures, each describing one part of the energy system, is arranged as a loop. Iterative application of the model loop leads to globally consistent scenarios in the development of the global energy system. The important relation for MESSAGE in this loop is with the energy demand model MEDEE-2 which provides the demand data for MESSAGE. Information on energy costs flows back to the demand model. MESSAGE can be used as a stand-alone model, and can also be applied to geographical regions other than the world regions of the global study

Experience with the Operation of an Energy Model Set

The Energy Group of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) has developed a set of models to describe the global energy system. This was first used in the late seventies to formulate two scenarios for global energy demand and supply for the period 1980-2030. The original model set consists of individual models and blocks of assumptions that are arranged in the form of a loop. The information flow between the elements of the set is deliberately not fully automated, so as to enhance human control of the modeling process. The model set operates iteratively, i.e., tentative assumptions made in one part of the set are subsequently modified in the light of results in other parts of the set until satisfactory consistency over the set as a whole is achieved. This paper reports on the conclusions arrived at by the author during his participation in the work of formulating the IIASA scenarios and subsequent applications of the model set. The main methodological conclusion is that there is an important trade-off between model detail and model usability, which calls for great care in the do not leave the terminal without writing, etc. design of both the model and the analysis to be undertaken

Burden-Sharing Rules for Stabilizing Greenhouse-Gas Concentrations and Their Equity Implications

This paper focuses on the equity aspects of international burden sharing for global CO2 emission stabilization. It first summarizes and classifies five equity principles that may play a role in allocating emission entitlements to countries. These principles are then used to examine ten burden-sharing rules -- proposed in the published literature of the field -- by analyzing the degree to which each rule incorporates the five equity principles. The burden-sharing rules surveyed are not readily comparable because they do not use a common global emission (reduction) goal. For that reason, our paper carries out a detailed examination of three sets of quantitative emission entitlements, which are based on three typical burden-sharing rules -- the equal emissions per capita approach, the carbon intensity approach, and the Triptych approach -- with the idea of comparing their implications for carbon emission entitlements for 67 countries and 9 world regions. To make the three rules comparable, we used a global carbon emission target that leads asymptotically to an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 550 ppmv. Reducing carbon emissions to meet this concentration target requires significant global efforts. No burden-sharing scheme aiming at this target can therefore be expected to lead to a negligible burden on all countries. Depending on the equity principle chosen, a scheme can allocate more of the global burden to developing countries or to industrialized countries. Developing countries receive relatively higher entitlements under the equal emissions per capita approach whereas industrialized countries are relatively better off under the carbon intensity approach. The Triptych approach leads to in-between allocations for most countries. Only countries with high carbon intensity in 1990 (for example China, Russia, and Poland) receive the highest entitlements under this burden-sharing rule. In some countries and regions, emission entitlements as calculated by any of the three burden-sharing rules are so tight that it appears unrealistic to assume that domestic measures alone can be successful in limiting their actual emissions to the emission entitlements assigned to them. It would therefore seem natural to assume that the calculated entitlements determine the initial allocation of tradable emission allowances of countries or regions. Although we make this assumption, we considered any numerical determination of carbon trade flows to be outside the scope of our paper

Sensitivity Analysis on Hydrogen Utilization Factor of the Haefele-Manne Model

This paper is to report on the results of a sensitivity analysis on the hydrogen utilization factor n_u of the Haefele-Manne model. This is the value of BTUs of petroleum or natural gas replaced per BTU of hydrogen utilized. In other words, each BTU of hydrogen is equivalent to n_u BTUs of petroleum-and-gas, being roughly estimated from the comparison of net thermal values in end uses between the two

The Value of Oil Price Projections

The central theme of this paper is the development of the international price of crude oil. A short overview of oil price history is followed by a discussion of the factors that were responsible for previous, sometimes erratic, changes. We conclude that these factors are likely to maintain their influence in the future, thus giving the forecasts of oil prices a high uncertainty. This uncertainty is reflected in several reports containing oil price projections. We argue, therefore, that a question solely about future oil prices must remain unanswered. This does not render the efforts to examine the future futile; it simply means that the question should be rephrased. We offer one possible problem formulation that explicitly accounts for the high uncertainty. This formulation requires that specific policy problems and options for solving them be specified before oil prices are projected - a condition that does not always hold or, at least, that does not seem to be regarded as important enough to be described in many reports on oil price studies

Roadmap to Deploying Technologies for Sustainable Development

The study found that a radical transition to energy systems based on renewable and fuel cells is plausible if one takes a long time span (over 100 years). The resulting global energy system would contribute to achieving sustainable development. The potential of advanced technologies for CO2 emission mitigation and energy conservation is enormous in all end-use sectors. In particular, contribution of advanced transportation technologies is significant and reliance on oil in that sector reduces from current level of 97% to 8%. The study suggests that, if successful, technology policies could lead to a path towards sustainable development that does not deteriorate life style and, generally, is consistent with ever-increasing economic prosperity, i.e., allows more cars, permits the world population to travel more and more, lets everyone enjoy high-quality energy service. We illustrate that such a future is possible and achievable, provided an appropriate targeted policy effort is made

Global Scenarios for Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The paper describes global scenarios for carbon dioxide emissions. They are based on the global scenarios formulated with the Global 2100 model and described in the book "Buying Greenhouse Insurance" by Manne and Richels. The input data used by Manne and Richels were modified to reflect scenario results of individual countries that contributed to the CHALLENGE network. Within CHALLENGE, researchers explore globally efficient measures to reduce the risk of adverse climate change. The approach used by the participants in these activities is to formulate reference scenarios for future carbon emissions. Any carbon mitigation is then measured relative to the reference case. With Global 2100, it is possible to quantify the effects of a hypothetical carbon tax on energy demand and supply. In the formulation of the model, this is equivalent to introducing all mitigation measures of which the specific costs are less than the tax. The main conclusion of the paper is that with costs of up to US$ 200 per ton of carbon, global energy related carbon dioxide emissions could be stabilized between 1990 and 2020

Inventory of Greenhouse-Gas Mitigation Measures. Examples from the IIASA Technology Data Base

The comparative assessment of different strategies for reducing energy-related emissions of greenhouse gases is a major research area within the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project at IIASA. An integral part of this work is the development of a mitigation technology inventory that encompasses a data base called CO2DB. The data base covers the full range of mitigation measures spanning efficiency improvements, conservation, enhanced use of low-carbon fuels, carbon-free sources of energy and other options such as afforestation and enhancement of carbon sinks. The data base includes detailed descriptions of the technical, economic and environmental performance of technologies as well as data pertinent to their commercialization, introduction and diffusion. Additional information includes literature sources, description of salient assumptions and how assessments were made. The primary purpose for the development of the CO2DB is to facilitate the analysis of technological options for reducing the global emissions of greenhouse gases, and in particular for assessing their potentials and costs. This working paper gives a description of selected technologies from the CO2DB. It also describes some of the most important assumptions behind the technology assessments and gives relevant literature sources. The examples chosen cover the energy system from primary energy production and conversion to energy end-use that results in actual energy services. The paper concludes by giving an example of an energy chain, also called full fuel-cycle analysis, with the associated costs and emissions. This example illustrates possible uses of the CO2DB as a tool for the assessment of mitigation potentials and costs. The data base can facilitate the assessment of carbon dioxide reduction, removal and storage technologies by combining many interrelated technologies together into the energy systems, i.e. to analyze measures throughout the energy chain from primary energy extraction to measures to improve energy. This paper can be used as a technical guide to the technology inventory in conjunction with the manual for the CO2DB software support system (WP-91-31a)

On Costs and Benefits of Russia's Participation in the Kyoto Protocol

The authors consider an application of MERGE, a large-scale non-linear optimization model, to the analysis of the development of the E3 (energy-economy-environment) system in Russia. A brief historical overview is followed by a short outline of related studies performed earlier by Russian research institutions. Original MERGE-based development scenarios for Russia are described. The simulation results are presented in detail and then partially compared with the projections given by other authors. The results of a sensitivity analysis of the models outputs are presented