210 research outputs found

    Non-parametric Bayesian drift estimation for stochastic differential equations

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    We consider non-parametric Bayesian estimation of the drift coefficient of a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation from discrete-time observations on the solution of this equation. Under suitable regularity conditions that are weaker than those previosly suggested in the literature, we establish posterior consistency in this context. Furthermore, we show that posterior consistency extends to the multidimensional setting as well, which, to the best of our knowledge, is a new result in this setting.Comment: 27 page

    What Explains Personality Covariation? A Test of the Socioecological Complexity Hypothesis

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    Correlations among distinct behaviors are foundational to personality science, but the field remains far from a consensus regarding the causes of such covariation. We advance a novel explanation for personality covariation, which views trait covariance as being shaped within a particular socioecology. We hypothesize that the degree of personality covariation observed within a society will be inversely related to the society’s socioecological complexity, that is, its diversity of social and occupational niches. Using personality survey data from participant samples in 55 nations (N ¼ 17,637), we demonstrate that the Big Five dimensions are more strongly intercorrelated in less complex societies, where the complexity is indexed by nation-level measures of economic development, urbanization, and sectoral diversity. This inverse relationship is robust to control variables accounting for a number of methodological and response biases. Our findings support the socioecological complexity hypothesis and more generally bolster functionalist accounts of trait covariation

    Is complexity leadership theory complex enough? A critical appraisal, some modifications and suggestions for further research

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    Scholars are increasingly seeking to develop theories that explain the underlying processes whereby leadership is enacted. This shifts attention away from the actions of ‘heroic’ individuals and towards the social contexts in which people with greater or lesser power influence each other. A number of researchers have embraced complexity theory, with its emphasis on non-linearity and unpredictability. However, some complexity scholars still depict the theory and practice of leadership in relatively non-complex terms. They continue to assume that leaders can exercise rational, extensive and purposeful influence on other actors to a greater extent than is possible. In effect, they offer a theory of complex organizations led by non-complex leaders who establish themselves by relatively non-complex means. This testifies to the enduring power of ‘heroic’ images of leader agency. Without greater care, the terminology offered by complexity leadership theory could become little more than a new mask for old theories that legitimize imbalanced power relationships in the workplace. This paper explores how these problems are evident in complexity leadership theory, suggests that communication and process perspectives help to overcome them, and outlines an agenda for further research on these issues

    The History of Communications and its Implications for the Internet

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