Natural Strain Variation and Antibody Neutralization of Dengue Serotype 3 Viruses

Dengue viruses (DENVs) are emerging, mosquito-borne flaviviruses which cause dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever. The DENV complex consists of 4 serotypes designated DENV1-DENV4. Following natural infection with DENV, individuals develop serotype specific, neutralizing antibody responses. Monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) have been used to map neutralizing epitopes on dengue and other flaviviruses. Most serotype-specific, neutralizing MAbs bind to the lateral ridge of domain III of E protein (EDIII). It has been widely assumed that the EDIII lateral ridge epitope is conserved within each DENV serotype and a good target for vaccines. Using phylogenetic methods, we compared the amino acid sequence of 175 E proteins representing the different genotypes of DENV3 and identified a panel of surface exposed amino acids, including residues in EDIII, that are highly variant across the four DENV3 genotypes. The variable amino acids include six residues at the lateral ridge of EDIII. We used a panel of DENV3 mouse MAbs to assess the functional significance of naturally occurring amino acid variation. From the panel of antibodies, we identified three neutralizing MAbs that bound to EDIII of DENV3. Recombinant proteins and naturally occurring variant viruses were used to map the binding sites of the three MAbs. The three MAbs bound to overlapping but distinct epitopes on EDIII. Our empirical studies clearly demonstrate that the antibody binding and neutralization capacity of two MAbs was strongly influenced by naturally occurring mutations in DENV3. Our data demonstrate that the lateral ridge “type specific” epitope is not conserved between strains of DENV3. This variability should be considered when designing and evaluating DENV vaccines, especially those targeting EDIII

Pediatric Measles Vaccine Expressing a Dengue Antigen Induces Durable Serotype-specific Neutralizing Antibodies to Dengue Virus

Dengue disease is an increasing global health problem that threatens one-third of the world's population. Despite decades of efforts, no licensed vaccine against dengue is available. With the aim to develop an affordable vaccine that could be used in young populations living in tropical areas, we evaluated a new strategy based on the expression of a minimal dengue antigen by a vector derived from pediatric live-attenuated Schwarz measles vaccine (MV). As a proof-of-concept, we inserted into the MV vector a sequence encoding a minimal combined dengue antigen composed of the envelope domain III (EDIII) fused to the ectodomain of the membrane protein (ectoM) from DV serotype-1. Immunization of mice susceptible to MV resulted in a long-term production of DV1 serotype-specific neutralizing antibodies. The presence of ectoM was critical to the immunogenicity of inserted EDIII. The adjuvant capacity of ectoM correlated with its ability to promote the maturation of dendritic cells and the secretion of proinflammatory and antiviral cytokines and chemokines involved in adaptive immunity. The protective efficacy of this vaccine should be studied in non-human primates. A combined measles–dengue vaccine might provide a one-shot approach to immunize children against both diseases where they co-exist

Recent Emergence of Dengue Virus Serotype 4 in French Polynesia Results from Multiple Introductions from Other South Pacific Islands

BACKGROUND: Infection by dengue virus (DENV) is a major public health concern in hundreds of tropical and subtropical countries. French Polynesia (FP) regularly experiences epidemics that initiate, or are consecutive to, DENV circulation in other South Pacific Island Countries (SPICs). In January 2009, after a decade of serotype 1 (DENV-1) circulation, the first cases of DENV-4 infection were reported in FP. Two months later a new epidemic emerged, occurring about 20 years after the previous circulation of DENV-4 in FP. In this study, we investigated the epidemiological and molecular characteristics of the introduction, spread and genetic microevolution of DENV-4 in FP. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Epidemiological data suggested that recent transmission of DENV-4 in FP started in the Leeward Islands and this serotype quickly displaced DENV-1 throughout FP. Phylogenetic analyses of the nucleotide sequences of the envelope (E) gene of 64 DENV-4 strains collected in FP in the 1980s and in 2009-2010, and some additional strains from other SPICs showed that DENV-4 strains from the SPICs were distributed into genotypes IIa and IIb. Recent FP strains were distributed into two clusters, each comprising viruses from other but distinct SPICs, suggesting that emergence of DENV-4 in FP in 2009 resulted from multiple introductions. Otherwise, we observed that almost all strains collected in the SPICs in the 1980s exhibit an amino acid (aa) substitution V287I within domain I of the E protein, and all recent South Pacific strains exhibit a T365I substitution within domain III. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study confirmed the cyclic re-emergence and displacement of DENV serotypes in FP. Otherwise, our results showed that specific aa substitutions on the E protein were present on all DENV-4 strains circulating in SPICs. These substitutions probably acquired and subsequently conserved could reflect a founder effect to be associated with epidemiological, geographical, eco-biological and social specificities in SPICs

Novel Small-Molecule Inhibitors of Hepatitis C Virus Entry Block Viral Spread and Promote Viral Clearance in Cell Culture

Combinations of direct-acting anti-virals offer the potential to improve the efficacy, tolerability and duration of the current treatment regimen for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Viral entry represents a distinct therapeutic target that has been validated clinically for a number of pathogenic viruses. To discover novel inhibitors of HCV entry, we conducted a high throughput screen of a proprietary small-molecule compound library using HCV pseudoviral particle (HCVpp) technology. We independently discovered and optimized a series of 1,3,5-triazine compounds that are potent, selective and non-cytotoxic inhibitors of HCV entry. Representative compounds fully suppress both cell-free virus and cell-to-cell spread of HCV in vitro. We demonstrate, for the first time, that long term treatment of an HCV cell culture with a potent entry inhibitor promotes sustained viral clearance in vitro. We have confirmed that a single amino acid variant, V719G, in the transmembrane domain of E2 is sufficient to confer resistance to multiple compounds from the triazine series. Resistance studies were extended by evaluating both the fusogenic properties and growth kinetics of drug-induced and natural amino acid variants in the HCVpp and HCV cell culture assays. Our results indicate that amino acid variations at position 719 incur a significant fitness penalty. Introduction of I719 into a genotype 1b envelope sequence did not affect HCV entry; however, the overall level of HCV replication was reduced compared to the parental genotype 1b/2a HCV strain. Consistent with these findings, I719 represents a significant fraction of the naturally occurring genotype 1b sequences. Importantly, I719, the most relevant natural polymorphism, did not significantly alter the susceptibility of HCV to the triazine compounds. The preclinical properties of these triazine compounds support further investigation of entry inhibitors as a potential novel therapy for HCV infection

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

Assessment of a variable frame (polygonal) method to estimate corneal endothelial cell counts after corneal transplantation

<p><b>Purpose:</b> To assess the agreement of the ‘polygonal’ variable frame cell count option on a confocal microscope after keratoplasty, with planimetry as the reference method.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> One hundred clear corneal grafts of 83 patients attending the cornea clinic at Gartnavel General Hospital in Glasgow underwent slit-scanning in vivoconfocal microscopy. Endothelial cell images were assessed with the Nidek Advanced Vision Information System (NAVIS), using the polygonal variable frame and the manual fixed-frame methods. Planimetry was used as the reference. The agreement between methods was assessed by Bland-Altman analysis.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> Planimetry provided a mean (±SD) endothelial cell density (ECD) of 1348±726 cells/mm<sup>2</sup>, a value that was very similar to that found by the polygonal method (1404±784 cells/mm<sup>2</sup>). The fixed-frame method provided lower cell counts with a mean ECD of 1026±610 cells/mm<sup>2</sup> (P<0.001). When compared with the reference ECD, the polygonal method overestimated the ECD only very slightly with a mean difference of 58 cells/mm<sup>2</sup> (limits of agreement, LoA, of −222 and 339 cells/mm<sup>2</sup>). Manual counting underestimated the ECD with a mean difference of −320 cells/mm<sup>2</sup> (LoA −814 and 173 cell/mm<sup>2</sup>).</p> <p><b>Conclusion:</b> Following keratoplasty, endothelial cell counts with the NAVIS polygonal method are in good agreement with planimetry. The ‘polygonal’ option is proposed as the method of choice for clinical applications with this confocal microscope and a good compromise between reliability and ease of use.</p&gt