The potential of simulating energy systems: The multi energy systems simulator model

Energy system modelling is an essential practice to assist a set of heterogeneous stakeholders in the process of defining an effective and efficient energy transition. From the analysis of a set of open-source energy system models, it emerged that most models employ an approach directed at finding the optimal solution for a given set of constraints. On the contrary, a simulation model is a representation of a system used to reproduce and understand its behaviour under given conditions without seeking an optimal solution. In this paper, a new open-source energy system model is presented. Multi Energy Systems Simulator (MESS) is a modular, multi-energy carrier, multi-node model that allows the investigation of non optimal solutions by simulating an energy system. The model was built for urban level analyses. However, each node can represent larger regions allowing wider spatial scales to be represented as well. In this work, the tool’s features are presented through a comparison between MESS and Calliope, a state of the art optimization model, to analyse and highlight the differences between the two approaches, the potentialities of a simulation tool and possible areas for further development. The two models produced coherent results, showing differences that were tracked down to the different approaches. Based on the comparison conducted, general conclusions were drawn on the potential of simulating energy systems in terms of a more realistic description of smaller energy systems, lower computational times and increased opportunity for participatory processes in planning urban energy systems

Creating comparability among European neighbourhoods to enable the transition of district energy infrastructures towards positive energy districts

Planning the required energy infrastructure for the energy transition is a crucial task for various neighbourhood concepts, such as positive energy districts. However, energy planning often comes with the challenges of data shortages and a lack of comparability among solutions for different districts. This work aims to enable this comparability by introducing an approach for categorising districts according to parameters that are relevant for the planning of neighbourhood energy infrastructures. Four parameters (climate, floor space index, heating demand and share of residential buildings) and their respective ranges (bands) were derived from the literature. Additionally, this work visualised the combination of all parameter bands across Europe to conveniently showcase districts that are comparable according to the selected parameters. This approach and its visualisation could be used in urban planning to share knowledge from existing energy district projects with those planned in comparable districts

D4.3 - Report on infrastructure requirements for developing sustainably PEDs,summarizing the outcome of the techno-economic modelling activities

Implementation of PEDs requires immense infrastructure investments in energy efficiency measures, energy generation, transformation and storage as well as in new mobility solutions. On the other hand, it is crucial to create affordable living arrangements despite the high costs of the aforementioned measures. Thus, this work aims to answer the overarching question of which infrastructure will be required to turn an existing neighbourhood into a PED. As existing districts in Europe are highly heterogeneous and, thus, difficult to analyse, this study uses a case study with a specific district archetype. To address this issue, this study utilises the district comparability tool, a framework created as part of the SMARTBEEjS project to enable technical comparability across districts in Europe. In addition, the cost of the necessary infrastructure is estimated, which leads to the discussion of inclusion and affordability issues as potential barriers of PEDs. An integrated techno-economic modelling consisting of different modelling approaches for the power, heating and cooling and mobility sectors as well as demand-side measures are applied. Those include tailor-made mixed integer linear programming, synPro simulations, agent based modelling and statistical correlations. Using these modelling methods, several plausible transition scenarios are analysed based on the building, climate and socio-demographic data of an archetype district of Griesheim-Mitte in Frankfurt am Main (Germany). The results show that envelope retrofitting is crucial to fulfil the PED requirement of energy positivity and to reduce the capacities of the energy generation and storage technology. Furthermore, the PED concept can be more economical than the business-as-usual scenario of importing the required energy. However, high upfront costs can be a barrier for less wealthy societies. This barrier needs to be reduced by public schemes or smart business models to avoid creating a neighbourhood concept that does not uphold the principles of energy justice and inclusion. This study has its limitations in terms of the scope of the study. Only one district archetype (based on Griesheim-Mitte in Frankfurt am Main and relevant for districts in Nottingham and Amsterdam) is analysed. Further work could look into different archetypes and the transition scenarios for those. Moreover, not all scenarios, i.e. transition measures could be modelled quantitatively within the frame of this work. In particular, the waste heat from data centers in the selected district was not considered. Hence, applying industrial waste heat for powering district heat networks should be investigated more thoroughly in the future

D4.4 - Report on developed methodologies and models for techno-economic modelling of PEDs and the transition towards their realisation

Executive Summary: In the light of urgent need for decarbonisation of the building sector, techno-economic modelling of energy systems is an essential part of the planning process of urban development. Positive Energy Districts (PEDs) should contribute to this transformation towards less carbon-intensive and more energy independent urban areas. Therefore, this report presents the techno-economic models that have been developed throughout the Smart-BEEjS project to determine the energy infrastructure required to transform current districts into PEDs. This report reviews the existing models that focus on the district and neighborhood energy modelling (Section 2). The literature emphasises that existing models are not sufficient for PED planning, as PED analysis requires a large diversity of data inputs and have very specific modelling requirements. Moreover, it is important to further advance an integrated systems approach that brings together technoeconomic and social aspects with sufficient detail. Four modelling approaches address four different sectors of the PED's energy infrastructure that needsto be included in the planning of the transition from exiting districts to PEDs. The electricity based system, including local renewable energy generation and electricity-based heating and cooling is covered by a mixed integer linear programming approach to guarantee an optimal technology portfolio while ensuring a positive energy balance (Section 3.1). The heating and cooling system is focusing on district solutions such as the 4th generation district heating/cooling with a mathematical approach (Section 3.2). The energy efficiency uptake of the building stock is addressed by agent based modeling (Section 3.3). Finally, the electric vehicle related charging infrastructure is modelled using statistics on real data (Section 3.4). Furthermore, as sector coupling is highly important these days, the interconnections of the presented models are drawn (Section 3.5). The models include important social factors such as affordability, inclusiveness and energy justice that is often not the focus of mainstream techno-economic models. As affordability, inclusiveness and energy justice are cornerstones of the PED concept, the models aim to address those values. The combined model can holistically evaluate what energy infrastructure is needed to transition from current districts to high-performance PEDs

Land and Resource Scarcity: Capitalism, Struggle and Well-Being in a World without Fossil Fuels

This book brings together geological, biological, radical economic, technological, historical and social perspectives on peak oil and other scarce resources. The contributors to this volume argue that these scarcities will put an end to the capitalist system as we know it and alternatives must be created. The book combines natural science with emancipatory thinking, focusing on bottom up alternatives and social struggles to change the world by taking action. The volume introduces original contributions to the debates on peak oil, land grabbing and social alternatives, thus creating a synthesis to gain an overview of the multiple crises of our times. The book sets out to analyze how crises of energy, climate, metals, minerals and the soil relate to the global land grab which has accelerated greatly since 2008, as well as to examine the crisis of profit production and political legitimacy. Based on a theoretical understanding of the multiple crises and the effects of peak oil and other scarcities on capital accumulation, the contributors explore the social innovations that provide an alternative. Using the most up to date research on resource crises, this integrative and critical analysis brings together the issues with a radical perspective on possibilities for future change as well as a strong social economic and ethical dimension. The book should be of interest to researchers and students of environmental policy, politics, sustainable development and natural resource management

Advanced biomaterials scenarios for the EU28 up to 2050 and their respective biomass demand

In order to reach sustainable development, the EU plans to expand the production of renewable resources and their conversion into food, feed, biobased products and bioenergy. Therefore also advanced biobased products like e.g. polymers are discussed to substitute their fossil based counterparts which are highly relevant commodities in terms of volumes. The present paper aims to assess the magnitudes of possible substitution shares as well as their implications on biomass demand in the EU28. Therefore scenarios are calculated based on a top-down estimation of current fossil based- and a literature analysis on biobased capacities, respective expectations and targets. Demands for biogenic building blocks are derived using conversion efficiencies and finally energy contents of underlying biogenic carbon carriers are calculated which could be deployed either for energy or material utilisation. We find lowest substitution potentials for biobased surfactants and highest for biodegradable polymers as well as potentials in a same order of magnitude for more durable polymers and biobased bitumen. Compared to average literature estimates for moderate and ambitious bioenergy scenarios, material utilisation could reach up to 4% and 11% shares in 2050 in a joint biobased subsector respectively. However, our scenarios are based on relatively poor data availability. Clearer definitions of products and feedstocks are needed, official monitoring has to be implemented, EU wide substitution targets must be set and pre-treatment and conversion technologies have to be introduced and diffused if we want to discuss and trigger climate change mitigation effects of this bioeconomy subsector in the upcoming decades

Estimating exergy prices for energy carriers in heating systems: Country analyses of exergy substitution with capital expenditures

Exergy represents the ability of an energy carrier to perform work and can be seen as a core indicator for measuring its quality. In this article we postulate that energy prices reflect the exergy content of the underlying energy carrier and that capital expenditures can substitute for exergy to some degree.\ud \ud We draw our line of argumentation from cost and technology data for heating systems of four European countries: Austria, Finland, The Netherlands, and Sweden. Firstly, this paper shows that the overall consumer costs for different heating options, widely installed in those countries, are in the same range. In this analysis we derived an overall standard deviation of about 8%. Secondly, additional analysis demonstrates that the share of capital costs on total heating cost increases with lower exergy input. Based on the data used in this analysis, we conclude that for the case of modern cost effective heating systems the substitution rate between exergy and capital is in the vicinity of 2/3. This means that by reducing the average specific exergy input of the applied energy carriers by one unit, the share of capital costs on the total costs increases by 2/3 of a unit.\ud \u