PopBERT. Detecting populism and its host ideologies in the German Bundestag

The rise of populism concerns many political scientists and practitioners, yet the detection of its underlying language remains fragmentary. This paper aims to provide a reliable, valid, and scalable approach to measure populist stances. For that purpose, we created an annotated dataset based on parliamentary speeches of the German Bundestag (2013 to 2021). Following the ideational definition of populism, we label moralizing references to the virtuous people or the corrupt elite as core dimensions of populist language. To identify, in addition, how the thin ideology of populism is thickened, we annotate how populist statements are attached to left-wing or right-wing host ideologies. We then train a transformer-based model (PopBERT) as a multilabel classifier to detect and quantify each dimension. A battery of validation checks reveals that the model has a strong predictive accuracy, provides high qualitative face validity, matches party rankings of expert surveys, and detects out-of-sample text snippets correctly. PopBERT enables dynamic analyses of how German-speaking politicians and parties use populist language as a strategic device. Furthermore, the annotator-level data may also be applied in cross-domain applications or to develop related classifiers

The diverse nature of island isolation and its effect on land bridge insular faunas

Aim: Isolation is a key factor in island biology. It is usually defined as the distance to the geographically nearest mainland, but many other definitions exist. We explored how testing different isolation indices affects the inference of impacts of isolation on faunal characteristics. We focused on land bridge islands and compared the relationships of many spatial and temporal (i.e., through time) isolation indices with community‐, population‐ and individual‐level characteristics (species richness, population density and body size, respectively). Location: Aegean Sea islands, Greece. Time period: Current. Taxon: Many animal taxa. Methods: We estimated 21 isolation indices for 205 islands and recorded species richness data for 15 taxa (invertebrates and vertebrates). We obtained body size data for seven lizard species and population density data for three. We explored how well indices predict each characteristic, in each taxon, by conducting a series of ordinary least squares regressions (controlling for island area when needed) and a meta‐analysis. Results: Isolation was significantly (and negatively) associated with species richness in 10 of 15 taxa. It was significantly (and positively) associated with body size in only one of seven species and was not associated with population density. The effect of isolation on species richness was much weaker than that of island area, regardless of the index tested. Spatial indices generally out‐performed temporal indices, and indices directly related to the mainland out‐performed those related mainly to neighbouring islands. No index was universally superior to others, including the distance to the geographically nearest mainland. Main conclusions: The choice of index can alter our perception of the impacts of isolation on biological patterns. The nearly automatic, ubiquitous use of distance to the geographically nearest mainland misrepresents the complexity of the effects of isolation. We recommend the simultaneous testing of several indices that represent different aspects of isolation, in order to produce more constructive and thorough investigations and avoid imprecise inference

Imaginal Discs – A New Source of Chromosomes for Genome Mapping of the Yellow Fever Mosquito Aedes aegypti

Dengue fever is an emerging health threat to as much as half of the human population around the world. No vaccines or drug treatments are currently available. Thus, disease prevention is largely based on efforts to control its major mosquito vector Ae. aegypti. Novel vector control strategies, such as population replacement with pathogen-incompetent transgenic mosquitoes, rely on detailed knowledge of the genome organization for the mosquito. However, the current genome assembly of Ae. aegypti is highly fragmented and requires additional physical mapping onto chromosomes. The absence of readable polytene chromosomes makes genome mapping for this mosquito extremely challenging. In this study, we discovered and investigated a new source of chromosomes useful for the cytogenetic analysis in Ae. aegypti – mitotic chromosomes from imaginal discs of 4th instar larvae. Using natural banding patterns of these chromosomes, we developed a new band-based approach for physical mapping of DNA probes to the precise chromosomal positions. Further application of this approach for genome mapping will greatly enhance the utility of the existing draft genome sequence assembly for Ae. aegypti and thereby facilitate application of advanced genome technologies for investigating and developing novel genetic control strategies for dengue transmission

Don’t blame the media! the role of politicians and parties in fragmenting online political debate

Democratic politics builds on both clear differences and shared common ground. While the rise of digital media may have enabled more differences to be articulated, common ground is often seen as threatened by fragmentation of political debate, which some see as driven by news media. The relative importance of political actors (parties and politicians) in driving fragmentation has received less attention. In this paper, we compare how news media and political actors contribute to the fragmentation of online political debate on the basis of analysis of almost half a million election-related tweets collected during the 2017 French, German, and UK national elections. We employ a Structural Topic Model to reduce online political debate to networks of topic overlap. Across the three countries with different political and media systems, we find news media are by far the most important actors in terms of creating and maintaining a common space of online political debate on Twitter. Our results also show that political actors, with some variation from country to country, contribute more to fragmentation as they focus on different topics while articulating clear differences. These findings underline the importance of complementing structural analysis of the rise of digital and social media with analysis of how important elite actors like news media and political parties/candidates use these media in different ways. Overall, we show how at least on Twitter, across three different countries with different media systems and political systems, news media create connection that contribute to commonality while political actors lay out clear differences that drive fragmentation

Google searches for portfolio management

Google search data has proven to be useful in portfolio management. The basic idea is that high search volumes are related to bad news and risk increase. This paper shows additional evidence about the use of Google search volumes in risk management, for the Dow Jones Industrial Average index component,s from 2004 to 2017. To overcome the (time-series and cross-section) limitations Google imposes on the data download, a re-normalization procedure is presented, to obtain a multivariate sample of volumes which preserve their relative magnitude. The results indicate that the volumes' normalization and the starting portfolio are decisive for the portfolio performances. Correctly normalized Google search volumes yield poor results. This may lead to revise the interpretation of the search volume: it can be considered a risk indicator, but when used in a equally risk contribution portfolio, no evidence of the improvement of the risk-return performances is found