Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”

The aeroelastic characteristics of the Saturn IB SA-203 launch vehicle

Aeroelastic properties, and effects of boundary layer-terminal shock wave interaction on Saturn IB SA-203 launch vehicl

Solar energy for process heat: Design/cost studies of four industrial retrofit applications

Five specific California plants with potentially attractive solar applications were identified in a process heat survey. These five plants were visited, process requirements evaluated, and conceptual solar system designs were generated. Four DOE (ERDA) sponsored solar energy system demonstration projects were also reviewed and compared to the design/cost cases included in this report. In four of the five cases investigated, retrofit installations providing significant amounts of thermal energy were found to be feasible. The fifth was rejected because of the condition of the building involved, but the process (soap making) appears to be an attractive potential solar application. Costs, however, tend to be high. Several potential areas for cost reduction were identified including larger collector modules and higher duty cycles

Building application of solar energy. Study no. 4: Scenarios for the utilization of solar energy in southern California buildings, change 1

Plausible future market scenarios for solar heating and cooling systems into buildings in the area served by the Southern California Edison Company. A range of plausible estimates for the number of solar systems which might be installed and the electrical energy which might be displaced by energy from these systems are provided. The effect on peak electrical load was not explicitly calculated but preliminary conclusions concerning peak load can be inferred from the estimates presented. Two markets are investigated: the single family market and the large power commercial market

Site-Specific Research Conducted in Support of the Salton Sea Solar Pond Project - FY 1982 Report

The design and operation of a salt-gradient solar pond power plant at the Salton Sea presents problems not encountered at small research ponds that were built in the United States. The specific characteristics of the Salton Sea site and the desire to construct the pond using the local clay as a sealant represent major deviations from previous solar pond experience. The site-specific research in support of the plant design is described. The research activity included validation of the spectrophotometric light transmission measurement technique, a search for options for clarifying the turbid and colored water of the Salton Sea, development of water clarification specifications in terms common to industry practice, quantification of gas production from microbiological reactions in the ground, a determination of the combined effects of temperature and salinity on the permeation of the local clays, and a preliminary evaluation of material corrosion

Finite-element nonlinear transient response computer programs PLATE 1 and CIVM-PLATE 1 for the analysis of panels subjected to impulse or impact loads

Two computer programs are described for predicting the transient large deflection elastic viscoplastic responses of thin single layer, initially flat unstiffened or integrally stiffened, Kirchhoff-Lov ductile metal panels. The PLATE 1 program pertains to structural responses produced by prescribed externally applied transient loading or prescribed initial velocity distributions. The collision imparted velocity method PLATE 1 program concerns structural responses produced by impact of an idealized nondeformable fragment. Finite elements are used to represent the structure in both programs. Strain hardening and strain rate effects of initially isotropic material are considered

Gamma-ray bursts and X-ray melting of material as a potential source of chondrules and planets

The intense radiation from a gamma-ray burst (GRB) is shown to be capable of melting stony material at distances up to 300 light years which subsequently cool to form chondrules. These conditions were created in the laboratory for the first time when millimeter sized pellets were placed in a vacuum chamber in the white synchrotron beam at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF). The pellets were rapidly heated in the X-ray and gamma-ray furnace to above 1400 C melted and cooled. This process heats from the inside unlike normal furnaces. The melted spherical samples were examined with a range of techniques and found to have microstructural properties similar to the chondrules that come from meteorites. This experiment demonstrates that GRBs can melt precursor material to form chondrules that may subsequently influence the formation of planets. This work extends the field of laboratory astrophysics to include high power synchrotron sources.Comment: 8 pages, 10 figures. Proceedings of the 5th INTEGRAL Workshop, Munich 16-20 February 2004. High resolution figures available at http://bermuda.ucd.ie/%7Esmcbreen/papers/duggan_01.pd

Neuraminidase Activity in \u3cem\u3eDiplococcus pneumoniae\u3c/em\u3e

Kelly, R. T. (Marquette University School of Medicine, Milwaukee, Wis.), D. Greiff, and S. Farmer. Neuraminidase activity in Diplococcus pneumoniae. J. Bacteriol. 91:601–603. 1966.—A method for the quantitation of neuraminidase in the presence of N-acetylneuraminic acid aldolase is described. The neuraminidase content of Diplococcus pneumoniae was found to be dependent on the media employed for growth; the highest enzyme activity per milligram of bacterial protein was obtained with Todd-Hewitt broth. Neuraminidase production was stimulated in D. pneumoniae by the addition of N-acetylneuraminlactose, N-acetylneuraminic acid, or N-acetylmannosamine to the growth medium. Three rough strains of D. pneumoniae, which were nonpathogenic for mice, lacked neuraminidase activity. Seven of 12 smooth strains contained neuraminidase; enzyme activity was not detected in the remaining 5 smooth strains. There was no correlation between the presence of neuraminidase activity and the capsular type or between neuraminidase production and animal virulence

Psychodynamic psychotherapy for children and adolescents: an updated narrative review of the evidence-base

While the evidence base for psychodynamic therapy with adults is now quite substantial, there is still a lack of research evaluating the effectiveness of psychodynamic therapies with children and young people. Those studies that have been carried out are also not widely known in the field. To help address the second point, in 2011, we carried out a review of the evidence base for psychodynamic psychotherapy for children and adolescents, which identified 35 studies which together provided some preliminary evidence for this treatment for a range of childhood disorders. The present study is an updated review, focusing on research published between March 2011 and November 2016. During this period, 23 additional studies were published, of which 5 were reports on randomised controlled trials, 3 were quasi-experimental controlled studies and 15 were observational studies. Although most studies covered children with mixed diagnoses, there were a number of studies examining specific diagnostic groups, including children with depression, anxiety and disruptive disorders. whilst the quality of studies was mixed, some were well-designed and reported, and overall indicated promising findings. Nevertheless, further high-quality research is needed in order to better understand the effectiveness of psychodynamic psychotherapy across a range of different disorders, and to ensure that services can provide a range of evidence-based treatments for children and young people

Correlation between TcT_c and anisotropic scattering in Tl2_2Ba2_2CuO6+δ_{6+\delta}

Angle-dependent magnetoresistance measurements are used to determine the isotropic and anisotropic components of the transport scattering rate in overdoped Tl$_2$Ba$_2$CuO$_{6+\delta}$ for a range of $T_c$ values between 15K and 35K. The size of the anisotropic scattering term is found to scale linearly with $T_c$, establishing a link between the superconducting and normal state physics. Comparison with results from angle resolved photoemission spectroscopy indicates that the transport and quasiparticle lifetimes are distinct.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter