State-of-the-art Methods and software tools for short-term prediction of wind energy production

International audienceThe installed wind energy capacity in Europe today is 20 GW, while the projections for 2010 according to the Kyoto protocol and the EC directives is up to 40-60 GW. The large-scale integration of wind energy emerges the use of advanced operational tools for short-term forecasting of the wind production in the next hours up to the next 2-7 days. End-users (independent power producers, electric companies, transmission system operators, etc) recognize the contribution of wind prediction for a secure and economic operation of the power system. Especially, in a liberalized electricity market, prediction tools enhance the position of wind energy compared to other forms of dispatchable generation. The paper presents in detail the state-of the-art on the methods, the software tools and the relevant R&D projects for wind power forecasting. The paper finally presents experience by end-users that run operationally such prediction systems today as stand-alone applications or interfaced to EMS/DMS systems. The paper reviews the related literature on wind power prediction. Emphasis is given on operational tools such as WPPT, Prediktor, Zephyr, Previento, SIPREÓLICO, LocalPred, More-Care etc. The various models or tools are classified using criteria like: · The type of implemented approach i.e. timeseries (neural networks, ARMA etc) or physical. · The specific spatial scale focused by the models (regional, wind park scale, micro-scale). · The on-line performance of the prediction tools and their coupling to Energy Management Systems

Regulatory Fitness: Fintech, Funny Money, and Smart Contracts

© 2019, The Author(s). This article argues that there are many questions that lawyers might ask, and conversations that they might have, about smart contracts; that some questions that are asked are more important than others; and that there are some questions that are not asked but which should be asked. First, it is argued that the question that preoccupies ‘coherentists’ (concerning the application of the law of contract to smart contracts, and the fit between smart contracts and the paradigmatic ‘fiat contracts’ that are recognised by the law of contract) is neither as puzzling nor as important as might be supposed. Secondly, it is argued that, if there are concerns about the acceptability of smart contracts, then the conversation that needs to be had is of a ‘regulatory-instrumentalist’ nature; in particular, if the question is one of public policy restrictions on the use of smart contracts, then the appropriate balance of interests needs to be made by an institution that has both the necessary mandate and the appropriate mind-set. Thirdly, it is argued that there are conversations that we currently do not have but which urgently need to be had. Blockchain is a potentially transformative technology and it is important to have more fundamental conversations about the kind of community that we want to be

Taking Blockchain Seriously

In the present techno-political moment it is clear that ignoring or dismissing the hype surrounding blockchain is unwise, and certainly for regulatory authorities and governments who must keep a grip on the technology and those promoting it, in order to ensure democratic accountability and regulatory legitimacy within the blockchain ecosystem and beyond. Blockchain is telling (and showing) us something very important about the evolution of capital and neoliberal economic reason, and the likely impact in the near future on forms and patterns of work, social organization, and, crucially, on communities and individuals who lack influence over the technologies and data that increasingly shape and control their lives. In this short essay I introduce some of the problems in the regulation of blockchain and offer counter-narratives aimed at cutting through the hype fuelling the ascendency of this most contemporary of technologies

Impact of detecting potentially serious incidental findings during multi-modal imaging [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Background: There are limited data on the impact of feedback of incidental findings (IFs) from research imaging.  We evaluated the impact of UK Biobank's protocol for handling potentially serious IFs in a multi-modal imaging study of 100,000 participants (radiographer 'flagging' with radiologist confirmation of potentially serious IFs) compared with systematic radiologist review of all images. Methods: Brain, cardiac and body magnetic resonance, and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scans from the first 1000 imaged UK Biobank participants were independently assessed for potentially serious IFs using both protocols. We surveyed participants with potentially serious IFs and their GPs up to six months after imaging to determine subsequent clinical assessments, final diagnoses, emotional, financial and work or activity impacts. Results: Compared to systematic radiologist review, radiographer flagging resulted in substantially fewer participants with potentially serious IFs (179/1000 [17.9%] versus 18/1000 [1.8%]) and a higher proportion with serious final diagnoses (21/179 [11.7%] versus 5/18 [27.8%]). Radiographer flagging missed 16/21 serious final diagnoses (i.e., false negatives), while systematic radiologist review generated large numbers of non-serious final diagnoses (158/179) (i.e., false positives). Almost all (90%) participants had further clinical assessment (including invasive procedures in similar numbers with serious and non-serious final diagnoses [11 and 12 respectively]), with additional impact on emotional wellbeing (16.9%), finances (8.9%), and work or activities (5.6%). Conclusions: Compared with systematic radiologist review, radiographer flagging missed some serious diagnoses, but avoided adverse impacts for many participants with non-serious diagnoses. While systematic radiologist review may benefit some participants, UK Biobank's responsibility to avoid both unnecessary harm to larger numbers of participants and burdening of publicly-funded health services suggests that radiographer flagging is a justifiable approach in the UK Biobank imaging study. The potential scale of non-serious final diagnoses raises questions relating to handling IFs in other settings, such as commercial and public health screening

Analyses of a novel SCN5A mutation (C1850S): conduction vs. repolarization disorder hypotheses in the Brugada syndrome.

AIMS: Brugada syndrome (BrS) is characterized by arrhythmias leading to sudden cardiac death. BrS is caused, in part, by mutations in the SCN5A gene, which encodes the sodium channel alpha-subunit Na(v)1.5. Here, we aimed to characterize the biophysical properties and consequences of a novel BrS SCN5A mutation. METHODS AND RESULTS: SCN5A was screened for mutations in a male patient with type-1 BrS pattern ECG. Wild-type (WT) and mutant Na(v)1.5 channels were expressed in HEK293 cells. Sodium currents (I(Na)) were analysed using the whole-cell patch-clamp technique at 37 degrees C. The electrophysiological effects of the mutation were simulated using the Luo-Rudy model, into which the transient outward current (I(to)) was incorporated. A new mutation (C1850S) was identified in the Na(v)1.5 C-terminal domain. In HEK293 cells, mutant I(Na) density was decreased by 62% at -20 mV. Inactivation of mutant I(Na) was accelerated in a voltage-dependent manner and the steady-state inactivation curve was shifted by 11.6 mV towards negative potentials. No change was observed regarding activation characteristics. Altogether, these biophysical alterations decreased the availability of I(Na). In the simulations, the I(to) density necessary to precipitate repolarization differed minimally between the two genotypes. In contrast, the mutation greatly affected conduction across a structural heterogeneity and precipitated conduction block. CONCLUSION: Our data confirm that mutations of the C-terminal domain of Na(v)1.5 alter the inactivation of the channel and support the notion that conduction alterations may play a significant role in the pathogenesis of BrS

Towards a fairer trading system for micro and small businesses post-Brexit? Comparative aspects with other common law systems

This chapter explores the position that the English legislature and courts would have on the issue of imposing unfair contract terms on Micro and Small Businesses (MSBs) in the post-Brexit era. The chapter looks into the extent that current applicable law and developments in English contract law offer protections for contractual trading with MSBs. In the presence of current legal gaps with regards to such protections that often lead to abuse by larger corporations there might be some solutions available in the current law to deal with the invalidation of unfair contract terms in Business to Business (B2B) transactions involving MSBs, however these still do not deal with the issue in its entirety and are also met with limitations. Given the uncertain developments on this matter after Brexit the chapter considers a brief comparative analysis with other common law jurisdictions on the issue as they might influence possible future reforms. The comparative analysis consists of examining the protections available on imposing unfair contract terms on small businesses in the Australian and the US legal systems. This chapter thereby analyses what possible solutions can be raised in dealing with this pressing issue after Brexit by considering these comparative results

Stretching and challenging the boundaries of law: varieties of knowledge in biotechnologies regulation

The paper addresses the question of adaptation of existing regulatory frameworks in the face of innovation in biotechnologies, and specifically the roles played in this by various expert knowledge practices. We identify two overlapping ideal types of adaptation: first, the stretching and maintenance of a pre-existing legal framework, and second, a breaking of existing classifications and establishment of a novel regime. We approach this issue by focusing on varieties of regulatory knowledge which, contributing to and parting of political legitimacy, in principle enable the making of legally binding decisions about risks and benefits of technologies. We base the discussion around two case studies, one of animal biotechnology ethical regulation, the other of ‘advanced therapy’ medicinal product regulation, both in the context of European Union frameworks. Specifically, we explore the knowledge configurations constituting expert committees and other institutional formations of expert regulatory knowledge in their political context. We show that where sectoral and moral boundaries are challenged, different modes of regulatory knowledge beyond scientific forms – legal, procedural, moral, economic and industrial – can shape regulatory innovations either by maintenance of regimes through commensuration and stretching, or through differentiation and separation creating new frameworks. We conclude that establishing an essential techno-scientific difference between pre-existing and novel technologies does not in itself require new regulatory structures, and that the regulatory strategy that is followed will be determined by a combination of different forms of knowledge

Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power – Overview of the ANEMOS Project.

International audienceThe aim of the European Project ANEMOS is to develop accurate and robust models that substantially outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced statistical, physical and combined modelling approaches were developed for this purpose. Priority was given to methods for on-line uncertainty and prediction risk assessment. An integrated software platform, 'ANEMOS', was developed to host the various models. This system is installed by several end-users for on-line operation and evaluation at a local, regional and national scale. Finally, the project demonstrates the value of wind forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short-term forecasting, numerical weather predictions, on-line software, tools for wind integration