Optimal Investment to Enable Evolutionary Rescue

'Evolutionary rescue' is the potential for evolution to enable population persistence in a changing environment. Even with eventual rescue, evolutionary time lags can cause the population size to temporarily fall below a threshold susceptible to extinction. To reduce extinction risk given human-driven global change, conservation management can enhance populations through actions such as captive breeding. To quantify the optimal timing of, and indicators for engaging in, investment in temporary enhancement to enable evolutionary rescue, we construct a model of coupled demographic-genetic dynamics given a moving optimum. We assume 'decelerating change', as might be relevant to climate change, where the rate of environmental change initially exceeds a rate where evolutionary rescue is possible, but eventually slows. We analyze the optimal control path of an intervention to avoid the population size falling below a threshold susceptible to extinction, minimizing costs. We find that the optimal path of intervention initially increases as the population declines, then declines and ceases when the population growth rate becomes positive, which lags the stabilization in environmental change. In other words, the optimal strategy involves increasing investment even in the face of a declining population, and positive population growth could serve as a signal to end the intervention. In addition, a greater carrying capacity relative to the initial population size decreases the optimal intervention. Therefore, a one-time action to increase carrying capacity, such as habitat restoration, can reduce the amount and duration of longer-term investment in population enhancement, even if the population is initially lower than and declining away from the new carrying capacity

Quantifying the Capacity for Assisted Migration to Achieve Conservation and Forestry Goals Under Climate Change

Aim: Many tree species may be threatened with declines in range and biomass, or even extinction, if they cannot disperse or adapt quickly enough to keep pace with climate change. One potential, and potentially risky, strategy to mitigate this threat is assisted migration (AM), the intentional movement of species to facilitate population range shifts to more climatically suitable locations under climate change. The ability for AM to minimise risk and maximise conservation and forestry outcomes depends on a multi-faceted decision process for determining, what, where and how much to move. We provide an assessment on how the benefits and risks of AM could affect the decision-making process. Location: Mountainous coastal western United States. Taxon: Trees. Methods: We used a dynamic vegetation model parameterised with 23 tree species. Results: We found that most of the modelled species are likely to experience a substantial decline in biomass, with many potentially facing regional extinction by 2100 under the high-emission SSP5-85 climate-change scenario. Though simulations show AM had little effect on the forestry goal of total biomass across all species, its effects on the conservation goal of promoting individual species' persistence were far more substantial. Among eight AM strategies (differing in the life cycle stage of movement and target destination selection criteria), the approach that conserved the highest biomass for individual species involved relocating target seedlings to areas that recently experienced fire. Although this strategy significantly reduced extinction risk for six at-risk species compared with no action, it also slightly reduced biomass of four species, due to increasing competition. Species with relatively weak tolerance to drought, fire or high temperature were the most likely candidate groups for AM. Main Conclusions: Our simulations indicate that AM can aid conservation by reducing extinction risks for species vulnerable to climate change, but it has limited impact on forestry-specific goals, affecting overall biomass minimally. This model framework could be applied to other forest ecosystems to evaluate the efficacy of AM globally

Evaluation of a new sonic anemometer for routine monitoring and emergency response applications

Recently, several new sonic anemometers have become available for routine wind measurements. Sonic anemometers avoid many problems associated with the traditional rotating anemometer and vane sets- inertia of moving parts, bearing wear, contamination from dust and ice, frequent maintenance. Without a starting threshold, the sonic anemometer also produces more accurate measurements of wind direction and sigma theta at very low wind speeds. We illustrate these advantages by comparing 20 days of observations from a new sonic anemometer with data from existing cup and vane sensors at the 10-m level of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory`s meteorological tower

ARAC's radiological support of the Cassini Launch

The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) was the U.S. Department of Energy atmospheric modeling resource used for the contingency of potential radiological releases during the launch of the Cassini mission. Having the ARAC system up and running was one of the launch criteria during the countdown. The ARAC Center at LLNL forecasted detailed weather conditions and delivered consequence assessments for potential accident scenarios to NASA before and during launch operations. A key aspect of ARAC's support was to acquire a variety of meteorological data for use in both forecast and real-time model calculations. ARAC acquired electronically two types of real-time observed meteorological data: 1) the set of on-site tower and profiler data via the Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS), and 2) routine regional airport observations delivered to the ARAC Center from the Air Force Weather Agency. We also used two forecasted data sources: 1) the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron at CCAS forecasted soundings for launch time, and 2) the Navy Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System (NORAPS) prognostic model which ARAC ran over the Cape. The NORAPS runs produced detailed 24-hr forecasts of 3-D wind fields. ARAC used default radiological accident source terms involving the potential destruction of Cassini�s Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) during 3 phases: 1) before the launch, 2) during the first 5 sec after ignition, and 3) from 5 to 143 sec after ignition. ARAC successfully developed and delivered dose and deposition plots at 24 hours, 3 hours, and 30 minutes before each of the launch windows

ARAC's operational support of the Cassini Launch

The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) was the U.S. Department of Energy atmospheric modeling resource used for the contingency of potential radiological releases during the launch of the Cassini mission. The ARAC Center at LLNL forecasted detailed weather conditions and delivered consequence assessments for potential accident scenarios to NASA before and during launch operations. A key aspect of ARAC� s support was to acquire a variety of meteorological data for use in both forecast and real-time model calculations. ARAC acquired electronically two types of real-time observed meteorological data: 1) the full set of on-site towers and profilers via the Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS), and 2) routine regional airport observations (delivered to the ARAC Center from the Air Force Weather Agency). We also used two forecasted data sources: 1) the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron at CCAS forecasted soundings for launch time, and 2) the Navy Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System (NORAPS) prognostic model which ARAC ran over the Cape. The NORAPS runs produced detailed 24-hr forecasts of 3-D wind fields. ARAC used default radiological accident source terms involving the potential destruction of Cassini� s Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) during 3 phases: 1) before the launch, 2) during the first S set after ignition, and 3) from 5 to 143 set after ignition. ARAC successfully developed and delivered dose and deposition plots at 24 hours, 3 hours, and 30 minutes before each of the la

Quantifying the balance between bycatch and predator or competitor release for nontarget species

If a species is bycatch in a fishery targeted at its competitor or predator, it experiences both direct anthropogenic mortality and indirect positive effects through species interactions. If the species involved interact strongly, the release from competition or predation can counteract or exceed the negative effects of bycatch. We used a set of two- and three-species community modules to analyze the relative importance of species interactions when modeling the overall effect of harvest with bycatch on a nontarget species. To measure the trade-off between direct mortality and indirect positive effects, we developed a "bycatch transition point" metric to determine, for different scenarios, what levels of bycatch shift overall harvest impact from positive to negative. Under strong direct competition with a targeted competitor, release from competition due to harvest leads to a net increase in abundance even under moderate levels of bycatch. For a three-species model with a shared obligate predator, the release from apparent competition exceeds direct competitive release and outweighs the decrease from bycatch mortality under a wide range of parameters. Therefore, in communities where a shared predator forms a strong link between the target and nontarget species, the effects of indirect interactions on populations can be larger than those of direct interactions. The bycatch transition point metric can be used for tightly linked species to evaluate the relative strengths of positive indirect effects and negative anthropogenic impacts such as bycatch, habitat degradation, and introduction of invasive species

Recommended launch-hold criteria for protecting public health from hydrogen chloride (HC1) gas produced by rocket exhaust

Solid-fuel rocket motors used by the United States Air Force (USAF) to launch missiles and spacecraft can produce ambient-air concentrations of hydrogen chloride (HCI) gas. The HCI gas is a reaction product exhausted from the rocket motor during normal launch or emitted as a result of a catastrophic abort destroying the launch vehicle. Depending on the concentration in ambient air, the HCI gas can be irritating or toxic to humans. The diagnostic and complex-terrain wind field and particle dispersion model used by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory`s (LLNL`s) Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) Program was applied to the launch of a Peacekeeper missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. Results from this deterministic model revealed that under specific meteorological conditions, cloud passage from normal-launch and catastropic-abort situations can yield measureable ground-level air concentrations of HCI where the general public is located. To protect public health in the event of such cloud passage, scientifically defensible, emergency ambient-air concentration limits for HCI were developed and recommended to the USAF for use as launch-hold criteria. Such launch-hold criteria are used to postpone a launch unless the forecasted meteorological conditions favor the prediction of safe ground-level concentrations of HCl for the general public. The recommended concentration limits are a 2 ppM 1-h time-weighted average (TWA) concentration constrained by a 1-min 10-ppM average concentration. This recommended criteria is supported by human dose-response information, including data for sensitive humans (e.g., asthmatics), and the dose response exhibited experimentally by animal models with respiratory physiology or responses considered similar to humans

Partitioning colony size variation into growth and partial mortality

We thank the Australian Research Council for fellowship and research support. M.A.D. is funded by a Leverhulme Fellowship and by the John Templeton Foundation grant no. 60501.Body size is a trait that broadly influences the demography and ecology of organisms. In unitary organisms, body size tends to increase with age. In modular organisms, body size can either increase or decrease with age, with size changes being the net difference between modules added through growth and modules lost through partial mortality. Rates of colony extension are independent of body size, but net growth is allometric, suggesting a significant role of size-dependent mortality. In this study, we develop a generalizable model of partitioned growth and partial mortality and apply it to data from 11 species of reef-building coral. We show that corals generally grow at constant radial increments that are size independent, and that partial mortality acts more strongly on small colonies. We also show a clear life-history trade-off between growth and partial mortality that is governed by growth form. This decomposition of net growth can provide mechanistic insights into the relative demographic effects of the intrinsic factors (e.g. acquisition of food and life-history strategy), which tend to affect growth, and extrinsic factors (e.g. physical damage, and predation), which tend to affect mortality.PostprintPostprintPeer reviewe

When is dispersal for dispersal? Unifying marine and terrestrial perspectives

Recent syntheses on the evolutionary causes of dispersal have focused on dispersal as a direct adaptation, but many traits that influence dispersal have other functions, raising the question: when is dispersal 'for' dispersal? We review and critically evaluate the ecological causes of selection on traits that give rise to dispersal in marine and terrestrial organisms. In the sea, passive dispersal is relatively easy and specific morphological, behavioural, and physiological adaptations for dispersal are rare. Instead, there may often be selection to limit dispersal. On land, dispersal is relatively difficult without specific adaptations, which are relatively common. Although selection for dispersal is expected in both systems and traits leading to dispersal are often linked to fitness, systems may differ in the extent to which dispersal in nature arises from direct selection for dispersal or as a by-product of selection on traits with other functions. Our analysis highlights incompleteness of theories that assume a simple and direct relationship between dispersal and fitness, not just insofar as they ignore a vast array of taxa in the marine realm, but also because they may be missing critically important effects of traits influencing dispersal in all realms