55 research outputs found

    Prognostic systems representation in a function-based Bayesian model during engineering design

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    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) systems are usually only considered and set up in the late stage of design or even during the system’s lifetime, after the major design decision have been made. However, considering the PHM system’s impact on the system failure probabilities can benefit the system design early on and subsequently reduce costs. The identification of failure paths in the early phases of engineering design can guide the designer toward a safer, more reliable and cost-efficient design. Several functional failure modeling methods have been developed recently. One of their advantages is to allow for risk assessment in the early stages of the design. Risk and reliability functional failure analysis methods currently developed do not explicitly model the PHM equipment used to identify and prevent potential system failures. This paper proposes a framework to optimize prognostic systems selection and positioning during the early stages of a complex system design. A Bayesian network, incorporating the PHM systems, is used to analyze the functional model and failure propagation. The algorithm developed within the proposed framework returns the optimized placement of PHM hardware in the complex system, allowing the designer to evaluate the need for system improvement. A design tool was developed to automatically apply the proposed method. A generic pressurized water nuclear reactor primary coolant loop system is used to present a case study illustrating the proposed framework. The results obtained for this particular case study demonstrate the promise of the method introduced in this paper. The case study notably exhibits how the proposed framework can be used to support engineering design teams in making better informed decisions early in the design phase

    Prognostic systems representation in a function-based bayesian model during engineering design

    Get PDF
    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) systems are usually only considered and set up in the late stage of design or even during the system’s lifetime, after the major design decision have been made. However, considering the PHM system’s impact on the system failure probabilities can benefit the system design early on and subsequently reduce costs. The identification of failure paths in the early phases of engineering design can guide the designer toward a safer, more reliable and cost-efficient design. Several functional failure modeling methods have been developed recently. One of their advantages is to allow for risk assessment in the early stages of the design. Risk and reliability functional failure analysis methods currently developed do not explicitly model the PHM equipment used to identify and prevent potential system failures. This paper proposes a framework to optimize prognostic systems selection and positioning during the early stages of a complex system design. A Bayesian network, incorporating the PHM systems, is used to analyze the functional model and failure propagation. The algorithm developed within the proposed framework returns the optimized placement of PHM hardware in the complex system, allowing the designer to evaluate the need for system improvement. A design tool was developed to automatically apply the proposed method. A generic pressurized water nuclear reactor primary coolant loop system is used to present a case study illustrating the proposed framework. The results obtained for this particular case study demonstrate the promise of the method introduced in this paper. The case study notably exhibits how the proposed framework can be used to support engineering design teams in making better informed decisions early in the design phase.This work was partially supported by United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Grant NRC-HQ-84-15-G-0016.This work was partially supported by United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Grant NRC-HQ-84-15-G-0016

    Simple method for identifying interdependencies in service delivery in critical infrastructure networks

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    Abstract Critical infrastructure failures from natural hazard events affect the economic and social well-being of communities. This is particularly true in lower income countries, where infrastructure may be less resistant to natural hazards and disaster recovery is often limited by available resources. The interconnectivity of these systems can strongly affect the services they deliver, and the failure of one infrastructure system can result in cascade failures with wide-reaching consequences. Unfortunately, interconnectivity has been particularly difficult to measure. We present a method for identifying service-oriented interdependencies in interconnected networks. The approach uses well-established methods for network analysis and is demonstrated for healthcare services in the Commonwealth of Dominica, a small island state in the Caribbean. We show that critical links in road networks necessary for healthcare service delivery are important for more than just patient access to a facility, but also on the supply chains that enable the hospitals to function (e.g., water, fuel, medicine). Once identified, the critical links can be overlaid with known hazard vulnerabilities to identify the infrastructure segments of highest priority, based on the risk and consequences of failure. An advantage of the approach presented is that it requires relatively little input data when compared to many network prioritization models and can be run using open-source geospatial data such as OpenStreetMap. The method can be expanded beyond road networks to assess the service-oriented criticality of any infrastructure network
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